Michael Steele says he wants Sarah Palin to help out in Virginia this fall.
Is that a good idea?
We polled voters in the state after Palin had been on the ticket for a month last fall and 46% of them said her presence on the ticket made them less likely to vote for John McCain, while only 37% said it made them more likely to do so. From the time she was selected to the time we conducted that poll we showed Barack Obama's lead in the state rising from two points to eight.
On the Virginia poll we have coming out tomorrow Bob McDonnell is doing quite well among independents. But last year they said by a margin of 44/36 that Palin's selection made them less likely to vote Republican.
She might be helpful in raising money, but if I was Bob McDonnell I think I'd tell her to keep away from public appearances in Virginia...it would have significant potential for creating a negative distraction from his campaign's message and could turn off voters in the middle he needs to win.
Monday, July 6, 2009
Interesting South Carolina Poll Anomaly
Something within the crosstabs of a poll SurveyUSA conducted in South Carolina last week really caught my attention- Democrats are more likely to say Andre Bauer is prepared to be Governor than Republicans.
Overall 20% of South Carolinians say Bauer is completely prepared to take the top spot, while 38% say he is somewhat prepared and 34% say he is not prepared.
Despite Bauer's party label 41% of Republicans say he is not prepared, while only 28% of Democrats say so. And while 25% of Democrats say he's completely prepared, only 18% of Republicans do.
I think part of the reason for this is probably that Republicans are less inclined to support Mark Sanford resigning, so saying that Bauer is not ready to be Governor could help bolster their argument- Democrats on the other hand can justify supporting Sanford's resignation by saying Bauer is ready to take his office.
But I still don't think the numbers bode too well for Bauer's chances in a Republican primary next year.
Overall 20% of South Carolinians say Bauer is completely prepared to take the top spot, while 38% say he is somewhat prepared and 34% say he is not prepared.
Despite Bauer's party label 41% of Republicans say he is not prepared, while only 28% of Democrats say so. And while 25% of Democrats say he's completely prepared, only 18% of Republicans do.
I think part of the reason for this is probably that Republicans are less inclined to support Mark Sanford resigning, so saying that Bauer is not ready to be Governor could help bolster their argument- Democrats on the other hand can justify supporting Sanford's resignation by saying Bauer is ready to take his office.
But I still don't think the numbers bode too well for Bauer's chances in a Republican primary next year.
Latest Civitas
Richard Burr's political handlers might need to go crying to the DC media establishment again because those meanies at Civitas, who asked us to take some time out on the 4th of July to remember Jesse Helms, put out yet another poll showing him with shoddy numbers toward the end of last week.
They found just 31% of voters in the state with a favorable opinion of Burr, while 19% view him unfavorably. Those numbers are a drop from the last time they did his favorability in April, when it was at 33/17. They notably find the same lack of Republican enthusiasm for Burr that we do, with only 42% of voters within his own party viewing him positively. With this race at the top of the ballot next year, it could hurt GOP turnout if the party faithful are not excited about Burr.
They also not surprisingly find pretty low name recognition for Mike McIntyre and Elaine Marshall. With Roy Cooper out of the mix I really think any Democrat who runs is pretty much going to start in the same position- there's not a whole lot of difference in initial popularity between McIntyre, Marshall, and the even less well known Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis. That's why getting a 'name' candidate at this point should be less important than getting a good candidate, especially if this race ends up being a referendum on what Burr has accomplished during 16 years in Washington.
They found just 31% of voters in the state with a favorable opinion of Burr, while 19% view him unfavorably. Those numbers are a drop from the last time they did his favorability in April, when it was at 33/17. They notably find the same lack of Republican enthusiasm for Burr that we do, with only 42% of voters within his own party viewing him positively. With this race at the top of the ballot next year, it could hurt GOP turnout if the party faithful are not excited about Burr.
They also not surprisingly find pretty low name recognition for Mike McIntyre and Elaine Marshall. With Roy Cooper out of the mix I really think any Democrat who runs is pretty much going to start in the same position- there's not a whole lot of difference in initial popularity between McIntyre, Marshall, and the even less well known Cal Cunningham and Kenneth Lewis. That's why getting a 'name' candidate at this point should be less important than getting a good candidate, especially if this race ends up being a referendum on what Burr has accomplished during 16 years in Washington.
On Deck This Week...
It's going to be a busy one.
First out of the box will be our second general election poll for the Virginia Governor's race. Think you missed something? We first polled Creigh Deeds against Bob McDonnell over a year ago, and found the Republican with a 32-27 advantage. We'll have that tomorrow along with numbers on the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. Then Wednesday we'll have approvals for Barack Obama, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, and the still very popular Mark Warner.
Also Wednesday, or maybe not until Thursday, we'll have some national numbers looking at how perceptions of Sarah Palin have changed since her surprise announcement on Friday.
And toward the end of the week we're going to have Minnesota polling looking at the fall out from the Senate race- are folks happy Al Franken's taking office, has Norm Coleman been damaged for a possible Gubernatorial race next year, and heck how does Tim Pawlenty do against Barack Obama?
Stay tuned- and our big monthly North Carolina poll is this weekend so if you have any suggestions of questions for that feel free to leave them in the comments.
First out of the box will be our second general election poll for the Virginia Governor's race. Think you missed something? We first polled Creigh Deeds against Bob McDonnell over a year ago, and found the Republican with a 32-27 advantage. We'll have that tomorrow along with numbers on the races for Lieutenant Governor and Attorney General. Then Wednesday we'll have approvals for Barack Obama, Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, and the still very popular Mark Warner.
Also Wednesday, or maybe not until Thursday, we'll have some national numbers looking at how perceptions of Sarah Palin have changed since her surprise announcement on Friday.
And toward the end of the week we're going to have Minnesota polling looking at the fall out from the Senate race- are folks happy Al Franken's taking office, has Norm Coleman been damaged for a possible Gubernatorial race next year, and heck how does Tim Pawlenty do against Barack Obama?
Stay tuned- and our big monthly North Carolina poll is this weekend so if you have any suggestions of questions for that feel free to leave them in the comments.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Palin bid a long shot
With the news today that Sarah Palin is resigning, possibly to focus on a 2012 Presidential bid, what are her chances?
For the Republican nomination, at least at this early point, pretty good. For the general election, not so much.
Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters. Around 75% of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we've polled it.
When it comes to the general election though, she does the worst of the GOP contenders against Barack Obama. Our four surveys on it so far have shown her trailing the President by an average of 16 points nationally, an outcome that would likely give Obama well over 400 electoral votes.
Candidates can certainly grow a lot from polling conducted three years before an election- Obama himself did. The problem for Palin is that most voters have already formed an opinion about her. On average our polls have shown that only 9% of the electorate doesn't know enough about the former Vice Presidential candidate to view her either positively or negatively. That doesn't give her a lot of room to define herself as a fresh face to any meaningful swath of voters.
For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed.
It's going to give Republican voters some interesting choices- they like Palin the most, but many may also realize that nominating her is a general election death wish. More than usual this will set up a choice between likability and electability, as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich fare better against Obama in our polling.
My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.
For the Republican nomination, at least at this early point, pretty good. For the general election, not so much.
Monthly national PPP surveys looking at the 2012 contest for President have consistently found Palin as the most popular of the likely Republican candidates with Republican voters. Around 75% of them have a positive opinion of her, ranking her above Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich every time we've polled it.
When it comes to the general election though, she does the worst of the GOP contenders against Barack Obama. Our four surveys on it so far have shown her trailing the President by an average of 16 points nationally, an outcome that would likely give Obama well over 400 electoral votes.
Candidates can certainly grow a lot from polling conducted three years before an election- Obama himself did. The problem for Palin is that most voters have already formed an opinion about her. On average our polls have shown that only 9% of the electorate doesn't know enough about the former Vice Presidential candidate to view her either positively or negatively. That doesn't give her a lot of room to define herself as a fresh face to any meaningful swath of voters.
For her to get elected in 2012 she would have to change the minds of a significant number of independent and Democratic votes about her- and it's a lot easier to make a positive first impression than it is to change a negative one once it's already been formed.
It's going to give Republican voters some interesting choices- they like Palin the most, but many may also realize that nominating her is a general election death wish. More than usual this will set up a choice between likability and electability, as Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and even Newt Gingrich fare better against Obama in our polling.
My guess is that Palin never holds elected office again.
Interesting Findings from Pew
Last week Pew put out a new report related to polling in the 2008 election. A couple findings I thought were particularly interesting:
-On state level Presidential polls the average error for live interviewers was 1.6%. For IVR polls it was 1.5%. On all state level polls the average error for live interviewers was 2.1% and for IVR it was 1.7%. The difference between live interviewer and automated outfits is not large, but the automated ones were slightly more accurate. It's just another piece of evidence that as much as some in the mainstream media might want to deny it, automated polls are just as good- or maybe even better- at calling the horse race than traditional ones.
-The other interesting finding was that on state level Presidential polls with some error, 74 out of 126 of them overestimated John McCain. And on all polls 125 out of 211 overestimated the Republican candidate. For all the accusations from the right of pollsters being biased toward Democrats, the data doesn't back up that assertion.
-On state level Presidential polls the average error for live interviewers was 1.6%. For IVR polls it was 1.5%. On all state level polls the average error for live interviewers was 2.1% and for IVR it was 1.7%. The difference between live interviewer and automated outfits is not large, but the automated ones were slightly more accurate. It's just another piece of evidence that as much as some in the mainstream media might want to deny it, automated polls are just as good- or maybe even better- at calling the horse race than traditional ones.
-The other interesting finding was that on state level Presidential polls with some error, 74 out of 126 of them overestimated John McCain. And on all polls 125 out of 211 overestimated the Republican candidate. For all the accusations from the right of pollsters being biased toward Democrats, the data doesn't back up that assertion.
Obama's Popularity by Region
We have five monthly polls now looking at Barack Obama's approval rating in North Carolina, and cumulatively they give a good a gauge of where he's popular and where he's not.
His best numbers by far, not surprisingly, are in the Triangle. 58% of voters there approve of his job performance while 37% disapprove. Generally speaking the more urban an area is the more popular the President is going to be there, and it was also the only region in the state where he won last fall, his margin there big enough to make up for narrow losses in most of the rest of the state. The Triangle was last year and will continue to be the key to Obama's success in North Carolina.
He's least popular in the Mountains, where only 47% approve of his performance so far with 45% disapproving. That area is pretty conservative, but there are also some simple demographic reasons for Obama's lack of support there- it has fewer African Americans and fewer young people than any other place in the state, and those tend to be the groups most supportive of him. Democrats may get frustrated with Heath Shuler's deviations from the party line, but these numbers help to explain it.
Other than the Triangle Obama is getting his best numbers in metro Charlotte and in northeastern North Carolina, where he has identical 54/39 ratings. He's at 52/41 in southeastern North Carolina, and gets his second lowest numbers in the Triad at 48/44.
Obama's political standing in North Carolina now really isn't any different than it was in November. Just over half of the population supports him- he hasn't built on his narrow victory at the polls last fall but he hasn't lost any of his support either. This may never be a 'safe' state for Obama but his standing here is a lot better than we would probably have guessed a year ago at this time.
His best numbers by far, not surprisingly, are in the Triangle. 58% of voters there approve of his job performance while 37% disapprove. Generally speaking the more urban an area is the more popular the President is going to be there, and it was also the only region in the state where he won last fall, his margin there big enough to make up for narrow losses in most of the rest of the state. The Triangle was last year and will continue to be the key to Obama's success in North Carolina.
He's least popular in the Mountains, where only 47% approve of his performance so far with 45% disapproving. That area is pretty conservative, but there are also some simple demographic reasons for Obama's lack of support there- it has fewer African Americans and fewer young people than any other place in the state, and those tend to be the groups most supportive of him. Democrats may get frustrated with Heath Shuler's deviations from the party line, but these numbers help to explain it.
Other than the Triangle Obama is getting his best numbers in metro Charlotte and in northeastern North Carolina, where he has identical 54/39 ratings. He's at 52/41 in southeastern North Carolina, and gets his second lowest numbers in the Triad at 48/44.
Obama's political standing in North Carolina now really isn't any different than it was in November. Just over half of the population supports him- he hasn't built on his narrow victory at the polls last fall but he hasn't lost any of his support either. This may never be a 'safe' state for Obama but his standing here is a lot better than we would probably have guessed a year ago at this time.
Thursday, July 2, 2009
Sotomayor Polling
I think it's interesting that Rasmussen's poll yesterday showing just 37% of the country in support of Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation to the Supreme Court hasn't received more attention.
We've only polled on Sotomayor in North Carolina but we found pretty similar numbers, with 39% favoring Senate approval here a month ago.
This definitely seems like something where folks might be more comfortable expressing opposition to the nomination on an automated poll than a live interviewer one.
I don't think it means Obama's choice is a bad one- this doesn't seem likely to be a big issue at the polls in either 2010 or 2012 even with those not enthused about the nomination, and women and Hispanics seem by and large happy with it. But I'm not sure I buy into the conventional wisdom that Sotomayor was a broadly popular pick.
We've only polled on Sotomayor in North Carolina but we found pretty similar numbers, with 39% favoring Senate approval here a month ago.
This definitely seems like something where folks might be more comfortable expressing opposition to the nomination on an automated poll than a live interviewer one.
I don't think it means Obama's choice is a bad one- this doesn't seem likely to be a big issue at the polls in either 2010 or 2012 even with those not enthused about the nomination, and women and Hispanics seem by and large happy with it. But I'm not sure I buy into the conventional wisdom that Sotomayor was a broadly popular pick.
Obama's National Approval by Party and Ideology
The below chart shows Barack Obama's approval nationally by party and ideology groups from our poll a couple weeks ago. No huge surprises. The biggest group where he probably needs to prop back up his standing- and where he's lost the most support in the last few months at least according to our polling- is among conservative Democrats.
Take the liberal Republicans numbers with a trough of salt- the 100% approval comes because he's popular with all 7 of them that we interviewed!
Take the liberal Republicans numbers with a trough of salt- the 100% approval comes because he's popular with all 7 of them that we interviewed!
| Group | Obama Approval | Percentage of Electorate Group Accounts For |
| Liberal Republicans | 100% | 1% |
| Liberal Democrats | 92% | 13% |
| Liberal Independents | 88% | 2% |
| Moderate Democrats | 86% | 23% |
| Moderate Independents | 54% | 14% |
| Conservative Democrats | 49% | 7% |
| Moderate Republicans | 41% | 9% |
| Conservative Independents | 20% | 8% |
| Conservative Republicans | 5% | 23% |
Notes on New Jersey
-Barack Obama's approval in New Jersey might not be as good as it was earlier in the year, but it's still to Jon Corzine's definite advantage to have the President campaign for him. Among voters who approve of Obama's job performance Corzine is currently leading Chris Christie 70-20...winning over most of the 30% of the electorate that approves of Obama but isn't currently planning to vote for him is going to be pretty integral to Corzine's chances at reelection. Among voters who disapprove of Obama, Christie has an 89-6 advantage.
-Voters in New Jersey are remarkably polarized when it comes to their assessments of these candidates. Fewer than 4% of respondents to our poll said they hold a favorable opinion of both Christie and Corzine. We're in the field in Virginia right now too, and it's safe to say there are markedly more voters there who like both Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell. 8% of New Jersey voters have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, while most voters fall in the 'like one and not the other' camp.
-Voters in New Jersey are remarkably polarized when it comes to their assessments of these candidates. Fewer than 4% of respondents to our poll said they hold a favorable opinion of both Christie and Corzine. We're in the field in Virginia right now too, and it's safe to say there are markedly more voters there who like both Creigh Deeds and Bob McDonnell. 8% of New Jersey voters have an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, while most voters fall in the 'like one and not the other' camp.
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