We're going to run our monthly national poll this weekend, even though it's only been three weeks since the last one.
So I'm looking for your suggestions on two things:
-Outside the box questions. Last month we asked about whether people thought ACORN stole the election. In the past we've asked about things like whether the Government should stay out of Medicare and whether people think Obama is the anti-Christ. We like to get a few of that type of question on every survey.
-The 4th Republican. We'll continue to take a monthly look at Mike Huckabee (which should be very interesting this week), Sarah Palin, and Mitt Romney and we've been switching up the fourth Republican on a month to month basis. I'll take nominations for the next 24 hours and then let you vote on it- anyone but Ron Paul, since we did him on the last poll.
Monday, November 30, 2009
Why Harry Reid's position may not be quite as bad as it looks
There is no doubt Harry Reid is in a pretty precarious position for reelection next year, but his situation may not be quite as bad as recent polling suggests.
That's because Nevada was the most poorly polled swing state in 2008 and the error all skewed in a Republican direction. Only one pollster (congratulations AP!) ever showed Obama up by his 12 point margin of victory. Only two others (Zogby and Suffolk) even came within four points of getting Obama's margin right and most (including us) were off by 7-8 points.
The three polling companies that have been most active in Nevada this year, showing Reid's vulnerability, have been Research 2000 (underestimated Obama by 7 last year) and Mason Dixon and Rasmussen (underestimated Obama by 8 points.)
I don't know if any of them have changed anything about their Nevada polling after last year, but if not it's possible that Democratic performance in the state is still being shortchanged by the polls.
Nevada is the only closely contested state I can think of last year where the pollsters were not only pretty universally off, but also pretty universally all off in the same direction. When we went back after the election to see where we went wrong it seemed like the culprit was significantly under measuring Obama's share of the Hispanic vote. Nevada is also one of the fastest growing states in the country and that could trip up pollsters as well, especially ones like us who sample based on past voting history.
Just something to keep in mind on the Reid polling.
That's because Nevada was the most poorly polled swing state in 2008 and the error all skewed in a Republican direction. Only one pollster (congratulations AP!) ever showed Obama up by his 12 point margin of victory. Only two others (Zogby and Suffolk) even came within four points of getting Obama's margin right and most (including us) were off by 7-8 points.
The three polling companies that have been most active in Nevada this year, showing Reid's vulnerability, have been Research 2000 (underestimated Obama by 7 last year) and Mason Dixon and Rasmussen (underestimated Obama by 8 points.)
I don't know if any of them have changed anything about their Nevada polling after last year, but if not it's possible that Democratic performance in the state is still being shortchanged by the polls.
Nevada is the only closely contested state I can think of last year where the pollsters were not only pretty universally off, but also pretty universally all off in the same direction. When we went back after the election to see where we went wrong it seemed like the culprit was significantly under measuring Obama's share of the Hispanic vote. Nevada is also one of the fastest growing states in the country and that could trip up pollsters as well, especially ones like us who sample based on past voting history.
Just something to keep in mind on the Reid polling.
GOP keeping up advantage with independents
Earlier this month Republicans won the contests for Governor of New Jersey and Virginia, thanks in large part to overwhelming margins of victory among independents.
There's no indication from the polling we've done in the four weeks since the election that the trend will change in 2010. In five out of six races we've looked at in Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin the likely Republican nominee continues to hold a double digit lead with independents:
The one exception is the Wisconsin Senate race where Russ Feingold leads with independents against all three of the Republicans we tested against him.
Of course it's always worth keeping in mind with independents that they have a structural lean toward the GOP, particularly with Republican id levels hitting new lows in some polls, because far more of them are conservatives than liberals:
That said, there's no doubt it will be a brutal year for Democrats if they can't perform better with independent voters, and in the month following losses in New Jersey and Virginia there's no indication they're getting it turned around.
There's no indication from the polling we've done in the four weeks since the election that the trend will change in 2010. In five out of six races we've looked at in Arkansas, Missouri, North Carolina, and Wisconsin the likely Republican nominee continues to hold a double digit lead with independents:
| Office | Republican Margin w/Independents |
| Wisconsin Governor | Scott Walker up 43-28 vs. Tom Barrett |
| | Richard Burr up 51-30 vs. Generic Dem |
| Arkansas-2 | Tim Griffin up 49-34 vs. Vic Snyder |
| | Roy Blunt up 44-32 vs. Robin Carnahan |
| | Gilbert Baker up 47-25 vs. Blanche Lincoln |
The one exception is the Wisconsin Senate race where Russ Feingold leads with independents against all three of the Republicans we tested against him.
Of course it's always worth keeping in mind with independents that they have a structural lean toward the GOP, particularly with Republican id levels hitting new lows in some polls, because far more of them are conservatives than liberals:
| State | Liberal | Moderate | Conservative |
| | 3 | 60 | 37 |
| | 9 | 50 | 40 |
| | 11 | 49 | 41 |
| | 8 | 58 | 34 |
That said, there's no doubt it will be a brutal year for Democrats if they can't perform better with independent voters, and in the month following losses in New Jersey and Virginia there's no indication they're getting it turned around.
Friday, November 27, 2009
Wisconsin a tossup
The top candidates to be the next Governor of Wisconsin are relatively unknown, and that makes the race to replace Jim Doyle a tossup.
Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are tied at 40, while Barrett leads Mark Neumann 41-39 and Tommy Thompson 46-41.
A plurality of voters have no opinion one way or the other about Barrett, Walker, or Neumann. Walker is the best known with 30% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him, 25% seeing him unfavorably, and 44% having no opinion. Next is Barrett, whom 31% have a positive view of to 21% negative and 48% without an opinion. Neumann has the poorest numbers with 27% of voters seeing him unfavorably to 16% positive and 57% with no opinion.
Although we didn't ask a direct horse race question on the primary the fact that 60% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Walker and only 28% do of Neumann gives you a pretty good idea of where that race stands for the time being.
The Gubernatorial numbers on this poll are further indication that Tommy Thompson's best next political move may be running for Mayor of Elroy. He does the worst of this Republican trio against Barrett, probably owing to the fact that 45% of the state has a negative opinion of him with only 38% seeing him positively. Clearly he has lost much of the appeal that got him elected to four terms as Governor.
These numbers provide further confirmation that Jim Doyle's retirement is a very good thing for Democratic hopes of keeping the Governor's office. On our June poll of Wisconsin he trailed Walker 48-40 and Neumann 42-41.
Given how much better Wisconsin voters will know these candidates in a year than they do now it's impossible at this point to say how the race will play out but it's clear that Republicans do have an opportunity to win this one back, and that it's likely to be a close contest.
Full results here
Tom Barrett and Scott Walker are tied at 40, while Barrett leads Mark Neumann 41-39 and Tommy Thompson 46-41.
A plurality of voters have no opinion one way or the other about Barrett, Walker, or Neumann. Walker is the best known with 30% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him, 25% seeing him unfavorably, and 44% having no opinion. Next is Barrett, whom 31% have a positive view of to 21% negative and 48% without an opinion. Neumann has the poorest numbers with 27% of voters seeing him unfavorably to 16% positive and 57% with no opinion.
Although we didn't ask a direct horse race question on the primary the fact that 60% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Walker and only 28% do of Neumann gives you a pretty good idea of where that race stands for the time being.
The Gubernatorial numbers on this poll are further indication that Tommy Thompson's best next political move may be running for Mayor of Elroy. He does the worst of this Republican trio against Barrett, probably owing to the fact that 45% of the state has a negative opinion of him with only 38% seeing him positively. Clearly he has lost much of the appeal that got him elected to four terms as Governor.
These numbers provide further confirmation that Jim Doyle's retirement is a very good thing for Democratic hopes of keeping the Governor's office. On our June poll of Wisconsin he trailed Walker 48-40 and Neumann 42-41.
Given how much better Wisconsin voters will know these candidates in a year than they do now it's impossible at this point to say how the race will play out but it's clear that Republicans do have an opportunity to win this one back, and that it's likely to be a close contest.
Full results here
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Vote on where we poll next week
It's time for another round of voting on where we poll. Thanks for all of your nominations. Here are your choices:
-Delaware. Most polling this year had shown Mike Castle in the lead but last week Susquehanna came out with one showing Beau Biden on top. Is the health care issue really hurting Castle?
-Georgia. Said it before, will say it again, if there is a sleeper Republican seat where Democrats might have a better opportunity than they realize it could be Johnny Isakson's. We showed him with an approval rating in the 30s last November. It also wouldn't be unprecedented for Georgia to provide a late breaking opportunity for Democrats- same thing happened last year. In the current political climate it's hard to see a Dem being competitive there but who knows about a year from now.
-Illinois Primary. Barely two months away and there are interesting contests in both parties for Governor and the Senate. I'm most interested in the Republican Senate primary- are attacks on Mark Kirk's moderation giving Patrick Hughes any traction? And of course there are a couple hot races on the Democratic side.
-South Carolina. Really interested to see if Mark Sanford's finally below 30. Interested to see if Lindsey Graham has Olympia Snowe style approval ratings- more popular with Democrats than Republicans. And of course they have Gubernatorial and Senate races next year.
Those are your choices, voting is open until Monday morning and with that I am off to Grandmother's in South Carolina where three days of local flavor will doubtless better qualify me to poll the state should it be this week's winner.
Happy Thanksgiving!
-Delaware. Most polling this year had shown Mike Castle in the lead but last week Susquehanna came out with one showing Beau Biden on top. Is the health care issue really hurting Castle?
-Georgia. Said it before, will say it again, if there is a sleeper Republican seat where Democrats might have a better opportunity than they realize it could be Johnny Isakson's. We showed him with an approval rating in the 30s last November. It also wouldn't be unprecedented for Georgia to provide a late breaking opportunity for Democrats- same thing happened last year. In the current political climate it's hard to see a Dem being competitive there but who knows about a year from now.
-Illinois Primary. Barely two months away and there are interesting contests in both parties for Governor and the Senate. I'm most interested in the Republican Senate primary- are attacks on Mark Kirk's moderation giving Patrick Hughes any traction? And of course there are a couple hot races on the Democratic side.
-South Carolina. Really interested to see if Mark Sanford's finally below 30. Interested to see if Lindsey Graham has Olympia Snowe style approval ratings- more popular with Democrats than Republicans. And of course they have Gubernatorial and Senate races next year.
Those are your choices, voting is open until Monday morning and with that I am off to Grandmother's in South Carolina where three days of local flavor will doubtless better qualify me to poll the state should it be this week's winner.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Undecideds in NC
There aren't a whole lot of true undecided voters in North Carolina. 89% already have some idea which party they're going to vote for the legislature next year and 88% have a preference for Congress. In an off year election you have mostly hardcore partisan voters coming out rather than the 'swing voters' who are more likely to switch from supporting one party to another on a year to year basis. Thus the 2010 election is more likely to be decided by the party that does a better job of getting its folks out to the polls than by winning over the 'undecideds.'
With that small swath of the electorate that is persuadable though it's clear that the economy and jobs is going to be the key. 56% of those voters name that as their top issue, compared to 48% of the population as a whole. These folks are not that interested in education or health care or taxes, all of which poll lower with them than voters overall.
These folks don't really care what the economists tell them about whether things are getting better. They need to feel it in their every day lives. If they do feel that things are better, they're going to vote Democratic next fall and things like health care and Mike Easley's legal issues and Bev Perdue's unpopularity aren't going to matter. And if they don't think things are getting better they're going to vote Republican because it affords an opportunity for change, just as they went Democratic for the same reason in 2006 and 2008.
With undecided voters next year it's going to be all about the economy.
With that small swath of the electorate that is persuadable though it's clear that the economy and jobs is going to be the key. 56% of those voters name that as their top issue, compared to 48% of the population as a whole. These folks are not that interested in education or health care or taxes, all of which poll lower with them than voters overall.
These folks don't really care what the economists tell them about whether things are getting better. They need to feel it in their every day lives. If they do feel that things are better, they're going to vote Democratic next fall and things like health care and Mike Easley's legal issues and Bev Perdue's unpopularity aren't going to matter. And if they don't think things are getting better they're going to vote Republican because it affords an opportunity for change, just as they went Democratic for the same reason in 2006 and 2008.
With undecided voters next year it's going to be all about the economy.
Looking at the 2010 Senate picture
I still think the chances of Republicans regaining the Senate next year are pretty much zero but I realized today that there have now been polls showing them in the lead for ten different seats they don't currently hold, which would be good enough for a tie if they won all of them:
-In Arkansas a number of polls have shown Blanche Lincoln trailing Gilbert Baker by small margins.
-In Colorado Jane Norton led Michael Bennet 45-36 in the only poll I've seen on that particular match up. Given that we had Bennet trailing Gubernatorial uber loser Bob Beauprez in August before he decided not to run I can believe it.
-In Connecticut, Rob Simmons has led Chris Dodd in every poll since March.
-In Delaware, Mike Castle has led Beau Biden in two of the last three polls, although Biden did have the upper hand in the most recent one.
-In Illinois, an internal Democratic poll last week showed Mark Kirk with a small lead over Alexi Giannoulias.
-In Nevada, it's seemed that Harry Reid trails pretty much anyone and everyone in the recent polling.
-In New York, Kristen Gillibrand has trailed George Pataki and/or Rudy Giuliani in a variety of recent surveys.
-In North Dakota a Zogby poll last week showed John Hoeven would start with a big lead if he got in against Byron Dorgan.
-In Pennsylvania the polls have been a mixed bag but two of the last four I've seen had Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter.
-In Wisconsin we don't find that Russ Feingold is at much risk against Tommy Thompson but a University of Wisconsin poll earlier in the fall showed Thompson leading 42-39- largely because Feingold was getting just 61% of the Democratic vote. We had him at 88%.
I think Republicans do have a pretty good chance based on the current conditions in seven of these races: Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In three of them their hopes are going to hinge on getting a single candidate in the race- Giuliani, Hoeven, Thompson- who hasn't shown a whole lot of interest in it. And of course even if by some chance Republicans did manage to win all ten of these seats and hold on to open seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio that looks like toss ups Vice President Biden would still be breaking the ties.
If Republicans want control of the Senate next year they need to:
-Get Joe Lieberman to switch parties
-Get Mitch Daniels to run against Evan Bayh. I pick that example not because I think Bayh is unpopular but because every other Democratic seat not mentioned above is in a heavily blue state.
The chances of everything coming together are probably less than 1%, but Republicans certainly could make a big dent next year and finish the job in 2012 when Democrats will have a lot more to defend.
-In Arkansas a number of polls have shown Blanche Lincoln trailing Gilbert Baker by small margins.
-In Colorado Jane Norton led Michael Bennet 45-36 in the only poll I've seen on that particular match up. Given that we had Bennet trailing Gubernatorial uber loser Bob Beauprez in August before he decided not to run I can believe it.
-In Connecticut, Rob Simmons has led Chris Dodd in every poll since March.
-In Delaware, Mike Castle has led Beau Biden in two of the last three polls, although Biden did have the upper hand in the most recent one.
-In Illinois, an internal Democratic poll last week showed Mark Kirk with a small lead over Alexi Giannoulias.
-In Nevada, it's seemed that Harry Reid trails pretty much anyone and everyone in the recent polling.
-In New York, Kristen Gillibrand has trailed George Pataki and/or Rudy Giuliani in a variety of recent surveys.
-In North Dakota a Zogby poll last week showed John Hoeven would start with a big lead if he got in against Byron Dorgan.
-In Pennsylvania the polls have been a mixed bag but two of the last four I've seen had Pat Toomey leading Arlen Specter.
-In Wisconsin we don't find that Russ Feingold is at much risk against Tommy Thompson but a University of Wisconsin poll earlier in the fall showed Thompson leading 42-39- largely because Feingold was getting just 61% of the Democratic vote. We had him at 88%.
I think Republicans do have a pretty good chance based on the current conditions in seven of these races: Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. In three of them their hopes are going to hinge on getting a single candidate in the race- Giuliani, Hoeven, Thompson- who hasn't shown a whole lot of interest in it. And of course even if by some chance Republicans did manage to win all ten of these seats and hold on to open seats in Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Ohio that looks like toss ups Vice President Biden would still be breaking the ties.
If Republicans want control of the Senate next year they need to:
-Get Joe Lieberman to switch parties
-Get Mitch Daniels to run against Evan Bayh. I pick that example not because I think Bayh is unpopular but because every other Democratic seat not mentioned above is in a heavily blue state.
The chances of everything coming together are probably less than 1%, but Republicans certainly could make a big dent next year and finish the job in 2012 when Democrats will have a lot more to defend.
The Possible Palin Mistake
Nate Silver had a good post yesterday about how Barack Obama could probably get reelected with a lower approval rating if Sarah Palin was his opponent as opposed to say Mitt Romney in 2012.
I completely agree. I looked at our last four 2012 polls and calculated the percentage of the vote Obama got among people who don't approve of him against Palin, Romney, and Mike Huckabee. Over the course of those surveys Obama averaged 9.5% against Palin with voters who fit that description while earning just 5% against both Huckabee and Romney.
Using Nate's example of a 45% approval rating, and assuming that everyone who approves of him would vote for him, that would give Obama 50.2% of the popular vote against Palin but just 47.8% against Huckabee or Romney. In other words nominating Palin vs. nominating one of the other Republicans would be the difference between GOP victory and GOP defeat. Obviously things could change a lot between now and 2012 with the perceptions of all these politicians but for now it does look like Palin would hurt Republican hopes of taking back the White House.
Here's the full data on how Obama does against the various Republican hopefuls with voters who don't approve of his job performance:
I completely agree. I looked at our last four 2012 polls and calculated the percentage of the vote Obama got among people who don't approve of him against Palin, Romney, and Mike Huckabee. Over the course of those surveys Obama averaged 9.5% against Palin with voters who fit that description while earning just 5% against both Huckabee and Romney.
Using Nate's example of a 45% approval rating, and assuming that everyone who approves of him would vote for him, that would give Obama 50.2% of the popular vote against Palin but just 47.8% against Huckabee or Romney. In other words nominating Palin vs. nominating one of the other Republicans would be the difference between GOP victory and GOP defeat. Obviously things could change a lot between now and 2012 with the perceptions of all these politicians but for now it does look like Palin would hurt Republican hopes of taking back the White House.
Here's the full data on how Obama does against the various Republican hopefuls with voters who don't approve of his job performance:
| Obama % vs. | Huckabee | Palin | Romney |
| November | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| October | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| September | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| August | 4 | 8 | 4 |
Wisconsin Notes
-It's a good thing for Democrats that Jim Doyle decided not to run for reelection. His approval rating is now down to 29% with 57% of voters in the state disapproving of him. When PPP looked at Doyle's standing in June his approval was 34%. As the New Jersey Governor's election showed, no matter how Democratic your state is you simply can't get reelected with these kinds of numbers. 58% of Democrats approve of Doyle, a poor standing compared to Russ Feingold's 78% and Herb Kohl's 73% within the party. But where his numbers really stand out as poor are with independents (22% approval) and Republicans (5% approval).
-Kohl's approval rating is 45%, just as Feingold's was. Normally those numbers wouldn't be considered too great but in a time when voters are disgusted with all politicians and not too enamored with Democrats in particular that's not a bad showing- better than for most Senators we've polled on lately.
-You know it's shaping up to be a good year for the GOP when it holds the lead on the generic Congressional ballot in Wisconsin. 43% of voters in the state say they plan to vote Republican for Congress next year with 41% going for the Democrats. The key to the Republican lead is a 39-24 advantage with independents, mirroring the trend we're finding in almost every state.
Voters in Wisconsin have a pretty dim view of both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress. 36% have a favorable opinion of the Dems to 50% unfavorable. For the GOP it's 30% favorable and 51% unfavorable. The reason Republicans lead on the generic ballot despite being less popular than the Democrats is that they have a 63-12 edge with voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans- a group that accounts for 14% of the electorate. When you're unhappy with everyone you'll tend to vote for the party out of power.
Full results here
-Kohl's approval rating is 45%, just as Feingold's was. Normally those numbers wouldn't be considered too great but in a time when voters are disgusted with all politicians and not too enamored with Democrats in particular that's not a bad showing- better than for most Senators we've polled on lately.
-You know it's shaping up to be a good year for the GOP when it holds the lead on the generic Congressional ballot in Wisconsin. 43% of voters in the state say they plan to vote Republican for Congress next year with 41% going for the Democrats. The key to the Republican lead is a 39-24 advantage with independents, mirroring the trend we're finding in almost every state.
Voters in Wisconsin have a pretty dim view of both the Democrats and the Republicans in Congress. 36% have a favorable opinion of the Dems to 50% unfavorable. For the GOP it's 30% favorable and 51% unfavorable. The reason Republicans lead on the generic ballot despite being less popular than the Democrats is that they have a 63-12 edge with voters who have an unfavorable opinion of both Congressional Democrats and Congressional Republicans- a group that accounts for 14% of the electorate. When you're unhappy with everyone you'll tend to vote for the party out of power.
Full results here
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Where Obama's really dropping
When talking about the decline in Barack Obama's approval numbers the media usually focuses on independents, or whether he's losing his base. The biggest reason his numbers are going down right now though is not related to either of those things- it's because he's losing whatever small amount of bipartisan appeal he once had.
On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.
Over the last three weeks we've done five polls where we asked Obama's approval rating- North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas-2, and Wisconsin. In two of the places an equal number of respondents approved and disapproved of his job performance while in the other three he was in the red. This is despite the fact that he won two of those places handily last year and was more or less tied in two of them. Only in the Arkansas Congressional District did he lose firmly last year. One thing these places all have in common is single digit approval ratings for Obama with the GOP. That's a big part of why his numbers are going down right now- you have to ask though- was there any chance of many of those people actually voting for him in the future? State by state numbers here:
On our national survey in June Obama had an 82% approval rating with Democrats. Now it's 83%. He had a 46% approval rating with independents. Now it's 47%. No real change on either of those fronts. But with Republicans he's dropped from an 18% mark to just 10%. That shift is what put his approval rating below 50%- he's gone from a small amount of crossover support to a very small amount of crossover supports.
Over the last three weeks we've done five polls where we asked Obama's approval rating- North Carolina, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas-2, and Wisconsin. In two of the places an equal number of respondents approved and disapproved of his job performance while in the other three he was in the red. This is despite the fact that he won two of those places handily last year and was more or less tied in two of them. Only in the Arkansas Congressional District did he lose firmly last year. One thing these places all have in common is single digit approval ratings for Obama with the GOP. That's a big part of why his numbers are going down right now- you have to ask though- was there any chance of many of those people actually voting for him in the future? State by state numbers here:
| State/District | Obama Approval with Republicans |
| | 9% |
| | 8% |
| | 8% |
| | 7% |
| | 4% |
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