Saturday, August 23, 2008


Pat McCrory's campaign put out a press release toward the end of the week with this statement:
“Pat McCrory clearly has the momentum heading into the fall,” said McCrory Campaign Manager Richard Hudson.
This claim was based on two recent polls from Survey USA and Civitas. The former showed Bev Perdue expanding her lead by two points and the latter showed Pat McCrory cutting it by one. Not my idea of 'clear momentum' but to each his own.

Furthermore the McCrory campaign claimed 'Pat is beating the lieutenant governor in the two regions that know the candidates best -- Charlotte and Southeastern North Carolina.'

Actually, almost every poll I've ever seen has put Perdue's Craven County into the Northeastern North Carolina classification. It's in the Greenville/Washington/New Bern tv market rather than Wilmington. How's she doing in that geographic area? Civitas' latest has her up 52-29 there, we showed it at 53-31 last month.

There hasn't been any real good poll data for McCrory of late so I guess they just have to reach out and embrace whatever smidgen of good news they can get, but the claim to be leading in Perdue's home base is quite a stretch.


Anonymous said...

I can not follow your math.Your poll in early Augugust showed Perdue nearly nine points ahead. In the latest polls she was only one or two points ahead. Is she not not loosing ground? What am I missing here?

Tom Jensen said...

McCrory's clear momentum claim had nothing to do with PPP- it cited Civitas and Survey USA polls that showed him on average trailing by half a point more than he did in the previous versions of each of those polls.

Polls released in the last two weeks have shown Perdue anywhere from 2-6 points ahead.

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