Monday, October 27, 2008

Hagan leads for eighth poll in a row

Kay Hagan 48
Elizabeth Dole 45
Christopher Cole 4

For the eighth PPP poll in a row Kay Hagan leads Elizabeth Dole. Christopher Cole continues to poll relatively well, an indication that voters disgusted with the tone of the campaign may really end up casting their ballots for him.

As a benchmark for this poll we asked respondents whether they voted in the 2002 Senate race when Elizabeth Dole first ran, and if so who they voted for. 18% of respondents who voted for Dole last time are now casting their ballots for Kay Hagan.

She has lost much of her bipartisan support from six years ago. For instance, 28% of Democrats we surveyed who voted in 2002 chose Dole. Now she has the support of just 18%. A quarter of blacks who voted in 2004 said they case their ballots for Dole. Now just 8% plan to. 54% of independents in the poll chose Dole last time. Now Kay Hagan leads 50-32 with that group of voters.

Those numbers give you a good sense of how Dole's broad appeal has declined. Another number gives a good indicator to how the state's electorate has change since 2002. Hagan is up 58-28 with those voters who did not cast a ballot in 2002.

This race is looking tighter than it did last week but I'm sure Elizabeth Dole would happily trades places with Kay Hagan in the polls if she had the choice.

Full results here.

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