Sunday, October 5, 2008

Obama making progress in the Mountains

As Barack Obama campaigns in Asheville today, he is already doing much better in the Mountains of North Carolina than John Kerry did in 2004.

John McCain has led Obama by an average of 49-43 in the Mountains over the course of PPP's last three surveys. According to the 2004 exit polls George W. Bush won 59-41 in the region so Obama was already out pacing recent Democratic performance there by 12 points even before his visit this weekend.

A PPP analysis during the Democratic primary found that there are fewer black voters and fewer likely young voters in the Mountains than any other region of the state. Obama's strong performance there is an indicator that while his ability to turn out black and young voters at a higher rate is often cited as the reason for his surprising success in the state this fall, he is also winning over a good number of regular voters who supported George W. Bush in 2004.

He couldn't make up a 12% deficit from 2004 just with new voters, but he is also showing an ability to cut into Bush's overwhelming margins in some of the more conservative parts of the state and that combined with his registration efforts is fueling his current small lead in North Carolina.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Tom, are y'all going to release more Virginia and NC polls soon?

Tom Jensen said...

Yes- NC tomorrow or Tuesday, Virginia Wednesday or Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Awesome, thanks. Any hints?

Tom Jensen said...

Obama continues to poll very well in North Carolina. Virginia isn't in the field yet.

Anonymous said...

Much appreciated, Tom.

Srinivas said...

Tom, you had written tht Obama was polling well on the first day of the OH poll; how does the polling look on subsequent days?

Brandon said...

LOL I love your term "Regular voters." I guess blacks are "irregular voters." And they say Republicans are the racist ones.

Blue South said...

Another point to show Pat McHenry is an idiot. Bush won Buncombe County in 2004 52K votes to 51K for Kerry.

Obama just got 20 to 28,000 to show up for a rally there.

Anonymous said...

runescape money runescape gold runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape itemsrunescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money Tabula Rasa Credit Tabula Rasa Credits Hellgate gold Hellgate London gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling eve isk eve online isk eve isk eve online isk tibia gold Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold
Age of Conan Gold
buy Age of Conan Gold
aoc gold

呼吸机
无创呼吸机
家用呼吸机
呼吸机
家用呼吸机
美国呼吸机
篮球培训
篮球培训班
篮球夏令营
china tour
beijing tour
beijing travel
china tour
tibet tour
tibet travel
computer monitoring software
employee monitoring

Anonymous said...

Tibet Travel Dot Info offers first-hand and up-to-date tibet travel information - tours, maps, climate, transportation, accommodation, travel tips,We are offering tibet tour in great discount,Tibet tours by local Tibet travel agency - Access Tibet Tour help you travel to tibet with ease, with tibet tour guide, Tibet Adventure Travel packages!U-Way is a new travel company Specilized in china tibet tours, furnish cheap tibet tours in 2009, if you wanna travel to tibet, please believe in u-waytours, let we work-team service for you.. We are provide tibet trekking routes,Tibet travel permit and overall service of travelling to Tibet
As we know,wow gold guide and on our website.Free gold guide We have available stock of gold on most of the servers

 
Web Statistics