Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Senate Incumbents who have trailed

With today's Quinnipiac poll showing Rob Simmons leading Chris Dodd 43-42 in Connecticut, I believe that makes Dodd the fifth incumbent Senator up for reelection next year who has not announced his retirement to trail in a head to head poll.

Two of the others were ours:

-We showed Roy Cooper leading Richard Burr 39-34 in North Carolina.

-We had Bill Owens leading Michael Bennet 44-41 in Colorado. An Owens campaign seems very unlikely.

And the other two were Kos'

-Janet Napolitano led John McCain 53-45 in an October poll, although it seems pretty clear now this contest won't happen.

-Sarah Palin led Lisa Murkowski 55-31 in an Alaska primary match.

Am I forgetting another poll that showed an incumbent losing? I know there's been some less than encouraging ones for Arlen Specter but don't remember one where he was actually down in a head to head contest, although I'm sure if you polled it today he'd trail Pat Toomey in the GOP primary.


Fitzy said...

Was there ever any Judd Gregg vs. Paul Hodes polling done, pre-fiasco-then-retirement? I don't know that Hodes would have been in the lead that early, but it's the next possibility I can think of after Specter and Vitter (who is still leading in Kos' latest poll).

thisniss said...

Can't remember his last numbers, but I would add Bunning in KY to the list.

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