Here are the finalists for where we poll this week and we'll do the top two:
-California. This state's races aren't exactly under polled but they are some of the most interesting in the country and we haven't done them in over a month.
-Connecticut. There's no denying it. Things are getting worse for Democrats nationally right now. Is that enough to even give them trouble in the two races in this state that they're expected to win? Worth a look. Also interested in seeing if Lieberman's poll numbers are as dreadful as they were when we looked back in January.
-Georgia. Seems like the state should have one of the more competitive races for Governor in the country and the Senate race has polled closer than expected so far.
-Kentucky. We haven't polled it in a couple months and the numbers are all over the map. It's looking more and more like this may be the top Democratic pick up opportunity, as unexpected as that might be.
-Maine. As far as I know only Rasmussen has polled here in the general so it'd be good to get another pollster on the scene. We'd also look at how people are feeling about Olympia Snowe- any name Republicans we should test against her in a hypothetical 2012 primary?
-Texas. We found this race tied in June and it gets incredibly little polling for the size of the state.
-West Virginia. I said from the start I thought this had the potential to be much closer than expected so I wouldn't dismiss today's Rasmussen numbers unless other polling companies do show the race much safer for Joe Manchin.
-Wisconsin. This race, like Washington, is one I don't feel like polling all that much because I think it's very close and don't feel like that's going to change much until closer to the election if it does indeed ever change at all. But it's been a couple months. And we can also provide some rare GOP primary numbers.
Voting's open until Thursday morning and we'll do the top two. And we'll disqualify any state that someone cheats on behalf of. One person voting 3 or 4 times on different computers is ok, a robot voting 100 times for one state in 5 minutes is not.
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47 comments:
I assume this means you will already be polling Florida for Kos?
If you do West Virginia, are you going to do the House races since there are only three? I know you've done House races in small state before.
2 are competitive.
Should we assume that only senate and gubernatorial races will be polled and no House races?
In West Virginia and Maine we might poll the House races. Not making any promises.
Any chance of polling some of the TX SBOE races?
Tom you know you can't help yourself. I take that as a definite statement that West Virginia will get House races!
You have a post about Delaware below, but don't offer it as an option. You've made me curious, to say the least.
You may not want to do Maine or Connecticut this weekend due to possible effects of Hurricane Earl.
Poll Vermont. Also, if Maine wins, poll (2006 gov nominee) woodcock against snowe.
If you poll West Virginia, I'd ask about the popularity of Obamacare.
Joe Manchin is on record saying he would have voted for Obamacare had he been in Congress. He's very vulnerable to being tied to Obama.
Voted for West Virginia. Rasmussen is known for showing primary bumps. Still it would be nice to see some data here. We do not need to get blindsided like with Mass. Manchin still has a 70% approval in the Rass poll and I doubt the voters changed drastically on him over the course of a couple of weeks. I doubt the primary got that much attention. If anything Manchin should have gotten more since his main opponent was actualy elected to something, albeit he was 95 but this is WV : ). Rasmussen could be showing a start of a trend or it could be doing what we are all thinking, primary bump. I would like to know, I suggest all vote for WV. Also make sure and poll gubernatorial numbers if you poll WV. Also if you could poll the CD’s that would be great. Minus Capito, she’s more than safe. THANKS!
Definitely California and Kentucky. No doubt.
I get bored of see the same races polled one and other time, every month or every two months.
I would like to see different races. The races not polled would be my first choice.
No "name" Republicans will run against Olympia. That's just a left-wing fantasy.
There are no "name" conservatives in Maine. You'd have to poll a retread like Les Otten who's been repeatedly rejected by the voters.
Does anyone outside of Kos think Texas is competitive? Let's not kid around, here.
People, vote for georgia! I've been begging for a Georgia poll for over two months! Please!It has so many interresting dynamics!
"It's looking more and more like this may be the top Democratic pick up opportunity, as unexpected as that might be."
Delusion reigns supreme among democratic pollster PPP I see. How is an 8 point lead (SurveyUSA) or a 9 point lead (Rasmussen) a "top pick up opportunity", exactly? If it IS, than the democrats are completely screwed.
And no, I don't count your last poll showing a tie: since it ludicrously predicts a higher democrat turnout in 2010 than Kentucky had in 2008.
Woodcock is a good idea. (TWSS)
"You have a post about Delaware below, but don't offer it as an option. You've made me curious, to say the least."
Tom said we might do it the weekend before their primary, which isn't until 9/14. That would be the following weekend, not this coming weekend.
"Does anyone outside of Kos think Texas is competitive? Let's not kid around, here."
We had Perry and White tied among registered voters in June. It's more competitive than any of their races since Bush beat Richards.
Sorry to see Texas leading. I guess a lot of Dems are hoping (in vain) for some good news, there. Well, at least if PPP shows Perry with a good lead, we can put that one to bed. I think WV is probably just Ras showing a primary bump, but I voted for that in hopes of seeing some house numbers, too.
PPP is the only pollster to have shown the TX gov race tight - you were probably just wrong.
Good chance Perry wins by more than the 9% margin he got in 2006.
2002 was also supposedly competitive, with Perry showing leads of just under 10 points at a similar point in the cycle against "Dream Team" candidate Sanchez - until he blew him out on election day.
I think it's kind of silly to poll Texas. I voted for Wisconsin because no one is polling there. WV is a good option too if you poll house districts too. Whatever state you choose, however, you need to poll LIKELY voters. Your polls of Registered Voters are far less useful. Thanks!
I know it's not going to win, but PLEASE poll Connecticut! I'm really interested in Lieberman's numbers, as well as gay marriage popularity and some of the congressional races. Begging you!!!
Anonymous:
"Rasmussen could be showing a start of a trend or it could be doing what we are all thinking, primary bump. I would like to know, I suggest all vote for WV."
I don't know if it's a primary bump or not. Rasmussen does have a habit of polling immediately after a primary (he likes to get on the news), and so his polling often shows a bump after the primary, but from what I gather, the West Virginia Republican Senate primary has been pretty low-key.
Still, I'd like to see the 2012 GOP Presidential primary numbers for West Virginia, so I voted for WV.
Anonymous:
"I get bored of see the same races polled one and other time, every month or every two months. I would like to see different races. The races not polled would be my first choice."
I agree, but those who think like us seem to be getting outvoted much of the time.
You can't always get what you want...
Anonymous:
"People, vote for georgia! I've been begging for a Georgia poll for over two months! Please!It has so many interresting dynamics!"
Why? Georgia is a blood-red state. You might as well poll on religious preference in Utah.
Anonymous:
"How is an 8 point lead (SurveyUSA) or a 9 point lead (Rasmussen) a 'top pick up opportunity', exactly?"
A 9-point lead on Rasmussen is a huge drop from where Paul stood a couple of months ago.
If the trend continues, the seat is well within Democrats' striking range.
There is someone running against Olympia Snowe! Scott D'Amboise a Constitutional conservative is running against her in the Primary. Scott has been in local politics and ran a congressional campaign against Mike Michaud four years ago. He pulled close to thirty percent with no money to speak of and no press coverage! Scott is gaining support where ever he goes! There will be another major upset come 2012!
Poll Snowe against Rosa Scarelli
Re Maine, conservative Scott D'Amboise has announced he will run against Olympia Snowe in the 2012 primary. Conservatives in Maine are fed up with Snowe and Collins, or the "Twisted Sisters" as we call them.
Poll Maine. Snowe has been in office since I was a baby, and I'm 40 as of this year!!! Any person in office that long serves themselves first, not the people. She is not a Republican, and should either switch parties or be put out to pasture with Murkowski. Scott D'Amboise is running against Snowe in 2012, and I fully support him.
Maine has a 5 way Gubernatorial race w/constitutional conservative Paul LePage running ahead after garnering 37% of the vote in a 7 person primary contest. There are two dog fights in the Congressional Districts... Where the challengers both have a groundswell of support. In District 1; It seems to be that Chellie Pingree is not as popular in southern maine as she had hoped and a charming Greek fellow by the name of Dean Scontras is swaying the true independents. District 2; Incumbent Mike Michaud lost a lot of friends over his healthcare vote and Leveque has expanded his base. Finally, Scott D'Ambroise could defeat Sen. Snowe in 2012. This state is a fine measuring stick for the national mood. Have a peak up here for yourself, it might be worth it. As Maine goes...so goes the Nation...
Poll Wisconsin. I haven't seen much data here, especially on the house races! The primary is September 12.
Plenty of polling opportunities: the Governor race (including GOP primary), WI-7 (including GOP primary), WI-3, WI-8 (including GOP primary), Senator (Feingold's seat), and more.
Poll Maine! Please include the statewide Oxford County casino referendum question.
If Maine wins poll Stephen King against Olympia snowe as a democrat. Also, King as an indy against Snowe and lets say, tom allen.
Poll Maine. Tell me you haven't heard Snowe and Collins names enough already! Then there are the two contenders for the House, Scontras and Levesque, who are sure to strike a cool blow to our brazen dems. Don't EVEN get me started about our gubernatorial race. This election is going to be a good one up here in Vacationland! Believe me, living here with these five liberal clowns is no vacation.
If you do Maine, please consider polling the two congressional races (especially the CD-2 race). Would be interesting to see if any of the supposed wave has chipped away at people like Michaud, or if they have remained immune.
As for Olympia, she already has an announced opponent, but he has zero name ID so it would be a waste to poll her against him. I would suggest not wasting time on foolishness like Stephen King (who is obviously not running).
The trick here is that all of the high profile Republicans in the state that would have the requisite name ID to be worth polling are either establishment or moderates themselves, so they wouldn't be running.
The arch-conservatives that would have the visibility right now to be worth the polling would be people like Paul LePage - but it would be weird to poll him against her next cycle when he's running for this cycle.
I remain highly skeptical that a credible right wing challenger will emerge against her, and if they do, 2012's environment will be VERY VERY VERY different from 2010's, thus the chances of her getting picked off in a primary remain small, in my opinion.
Poll Maine! Poll about gay marriage again.
How about Les Otten vs. Snowe for 2012 in Maine ?
Please poll Maine. The Gubernatorial race is going to be interesting.
I would certainly appreciate more polling in Maine. They are done very infrequently in the state and the newspapers do not seem to get very good numbers.
Poll? I think it's about time we erect a gallows pole on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial !! Let's vote on which one goes first and sell Pay Per View to pay down some of their ignorant debt!!! Any and all freedom robbing incumbents are eligible!!!
You should definitely poll Maine gubernatorial and congressional races. It is the unenrolled who will determine these races and the choices between fiscal and social conservatives and ultra-liberals couldn't be clearer. There are no "pale pastels" (as Reagan would say)in these races.
You should poll Maine because:
1) The Gubernatorial election is a great race and there are good odds Maine elects another Independent Governor. Insight into this would be helpful to students of politics and other hopeful independent candidates.
2)2012 will really be a test of Maine's Republicans. Do they lynch mob Sen. Snowe out of office in the primaries or do enough discontented Democrats vote against her to end her long run. The name you should test against her in the primary is Peter Cianchette. He is a prominent and admired business man. While he has said that he has a business to run and won't run for governor, it is clear he has some political aspiration in his future. He has more potential than any Republican politician in the state.
3)It is under polled.
I think you should poll Maine - all the races here should be very interesting, from governor to representatives for congress to state races. This is a very exciting year for politics in Maine.
Poll Maine please!
The concerned citizens of Maine, mostly center right people have had it with politics as usual in the Statist State of Maine. The government is so tightly wrapped in business here it has strangled our businesses and jobs. Just look at the deal made with local governments to try to pass the casino bill. Common sense Mainers of both parties and un-enrolled voters have had enough of the liberals and we are going to clean house, Mayor Paul LePage, a true fiscal, common sense Mainer has an ever expanding lead, and our republican conservative congressional candidates are gaining traction and have a great chance of unseating our liberal House Reps, and Olympia Snow and Susan Collins are also in cross hairs, we have a constitutional conservative running against Snow for the primary named Scott D'Amboise. We in the Tea Party are excited to see him challenge the incumbant and hope folks will go to listen to him.The Tea Party/concerned Mainers are alive and growing here in Maine. Please keep an eye on Maine as we in the Tea Party are leading the way back to reality and fiscal sanity for Maine and are willing to take the hits and ostrization for our kids and seniors...we have had enough of liberalism and statism here in Maine!
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