We still have more to release from our Arizona, California, South Dakota, and South Carolina polls from this week but didn't have time to get to any of that today. We'll probably release some of it over the weekend.
We're polling Colorado and New Mexico this weekend. Next weekend we'll have our monthly national poll and we'll hit another state. For the national poll at this point we'd appreciate your suggestions on who to include as this month's 'bonus Republican' to be tested against Barack Obama along with the usual suspects of Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. We're open to pretty much anyone except for our rule that we won't do anyone more than once every six months- that rules out Michele Bachmann, Marco Rubio, Glenn Beck, and Chris Christie, all of whom we've included since August. We'll choose some finalists from your nominations and put it to a vote starting Monday.
And we're also going to go ahead and have the vote on the state we poll next weekend. Here are your finalists, all of which are potentially interesting 2012 Senate races that we haven't taken a look at yet:
-Connecticut. Obviously an open seat Senate situation with about a million different ways the field could shape up.
-Hawaii. When we polled the state in early October Linda Lingle only had a 46/45 approval rating so I am very skeptical that she would pose much of a threat to Daniel Akaka but it generates a lot of discussion and we'll poll it eventually.
-Rhode Island. Just like with Hawaii I'm not sold on the possibility of a Don Carcieri candidacy being much of a threat to Sheldon Whitehouse but at some point we're going to test it as we make our way through the 2012 Senate map.
-Tennessee. There really seems to be precious little hope for Democrats moving forward in this state but Bob Corker's first election victory margin was quite narrow so it's worth looking to see if he's remotely in any trouble to snag a second term...although I'd be surprised if he is and have no idea who we'd even test against him. Would definitely be taking suggestions on that front.
-Washington. I think of all the incumbent Democratic Senators we haven't polled on yet Maria Cantwell is probably the most potentially vulnerable. I doubt that she actually is vulnerable, but that's why you do the polls.
Voting's open until Monday afternoon. Don't vote 100 times for the same state or we'll throw it out of the mix. Have a good weekend and go Packers I suppose...
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50 comments:
I voted for Washington, but if you poll TN you could try Phil Bredesen as the nominee.
Huntsman
RUDY!
For the bonus Republican it's worth seeing if Haley Barbour's recent bad press had left any impact or not, especially now that it looks like he's running.
If Tennessee wins some potential Dems are Phil Bredesen, Nashville Mayor Karl Dean, and Memphis Mayor A C Wharton.
Huntsman and Barbour.
I 2nd Huntsman...
Since it's pretty obvious he's going to run for President you should include former-Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson.
For the bonus Republican ... Rand Paul.
Pawlenty - although I'd have thought a two-term governor with a fairly successful record, who looks like he's going to run, should be in the candidates you poll normally anyway.
DeMint!
I second Giuliani.
Hawaii, I guess. Might as well get it out of the way and not have it come up again for the rest of the year.
VA Gov. Bob McDonnell
Huntsman or Giuliani
Paul Ryan.
The only Washington poll I'm interested in is on the governor's race and I'm a Washington resident. I don't expect a top tier Republican in the Senate race. (At this point, we really only have one, McKenna, and he is clearly aiming for governor)
Interested in the OPEN seat.
CT-Sen is the most interesting race.
Is it possible to test whether corker is vulnerable to a primary challenge from the right? Not much has been said about that, but he votes with Dems on some issues like START so he might be vulnerable, at least a little.
WHAT??? Where's New Hampshire?
Bonus Republican: Ron Paul
An obvious choice.
Ron Paul as the bonus Republican. And if Connecticut is in the top 2, I'd suggest Linda McMahon and Peter Schiff on the Republican side.
Rand Paul.
I voted for Tennessee.
As the previous poster said, please include Bredesen and also Ford, Cooper, Cohen if you poll the state.
For the national poll please include Rick Santorum as the "bonus" Republican.
I would love to see Ron Paul polled directly against Obama. Many seem to make the conclusion that he does not have the republican base but he does have stances that cross over to the liberal base which may make him more attractive in the general election.
Also, Peter Schiff for the Connecticut primary should be polled now that he already has one election under his belt.
for Tennesse Bart Gordon, John Tanner and Phil Bredesen all need to be tested against Corker. It would also be fun to test Al Gore for Senate.
You could test quite a few Dems against Bob Corker:
-John Tanner
-Bart Gordon
-Phil Bredesen
-Lincoln Davis
I'd also like to know if Corker is vulnerable to a tea party challenge.
I know he lives in New York now, but you should poll Harold Ford Jr. against Corker to see how strong he is.
He lost by 2-3 points so it would be a good indication. Poll a tea party candidate aginst Corker, too.
Have you polled Delaware yet? I know it's not competitive, but I'd love to see O'Donnell numbers for House, Gov and Senate, and Senate numbers for Castle.
As for 2012...I'd go with Rudy. The other candidate are interesting, but he's the only one with a good enough name recognition at this point.
I vote for your polling Ron Paul.
Please poll Ron Paul. Colorado should be a solid state for him. I think he can do better than Palin and Gingrich, for sure.
Please poll Ron Paul against Barack Obama. I think many would like to know.
Herman Cain, a Georgia poll has suggested he is competitive in the primary
How long has it been since Pawlenty has been polled? Its been awhile, and it makes since to poll him after his national rollout with his book tour, especially since he is, other than Romney, the only candidate certain to run.
Why not congressman ron paul of texas? I'd like to see him in these polls as the bonus
For the national poll, I'd like to see Jon Huntsman tested. I don't doubt that Obama would lead him fairly significantly, but that would be in large part because he's probably unknown to most of the country.
For the state polling, I voted for Tennessee. I'd like to see Obama tested versus all of the usual suspects, but I'd also like to see Corker tested. I would be surprised if he was anything but just slightly vulnerable, but you never know. And since the Democrats have few options to be on offense if only because so few Republicans are up for reelection, they might just take this race seriously. Who should you test against Corker? I'm not crazy about testing Bresden, because he and Corker are supposedly friends, but why not? Anyway, here are some suggestions besides that:
Corker v. Generic Democrat
Corker v. Ron Littlefield (Mayor of Chattanooga)
Corker v. A C Wharton (Mayor of Memphis)
Corker v. Karl Dean (Mayor of Nashville)
Corker v. (former) Rep. Bart Gordon
Corker v. (former) Rep. Jim Cooper
Bonus Republican: Thune.
In Tennessee
--
Bart Gordon
Phil Bredesen (Bredesen won't run, he is good friends with Corker, but to see what a top line for Democrats is in this state)
Attorney General Robert Cooper (D)
Corker might be vulnerable from the right. Check out Marsha Blackburn.
Do not bother polling Lincoln Davis or John Tanner. One will be 68 in 2012, the other 69.
Ron Paul!
Ron Paul will probably be running again. He should be included in these polls.
The bonus republican should be Ron Paul. If you poll Connecticut then please include Peter Schiff
Pawlenty, see if hes grown after the book
Seeing Ron Paul seems more likely to run than even Sarah Palin he is a good fit. Not to mention hes an interesting conundrum often polling 5-10% ahead of 2nd tier candidates and even better in head to head against Democrats.
Will you poll the GOP presidential primary in the state that wins? How about the possible candidates vs Obama?
"Will you poll the GOP presidential primary in the state that wins? How about the possible candidates vs Obama?"
Yes, we always do both.
For the bonus Republican against Barack Obama I nominate Ron Paul. I would like to see if Ron has increased, or decreased since the last head to head poll (Rasmussen) had him behind Obama by one point.
In your recent South Carolina GOP poll, Rudy Giuliani had the highest net favorable rating among moderate Republicans (+44%) and GOP-leaning Independents (+34%), and finished second overall (+39%), only behind Mike Huckabee.
Perhaps these monthly polls to select the '5th Republican' help generate traffic to your site, but it seems rather silly to consider polling potential presidential candidates who are unknown by the vast majority of the respondents to your surveys.
Here's a breakdown of the percentages by which the respondents in the South Carolina GOP survey were familiar enough with each potential candidate to have an opinion of them:
Palin 89%
Huckabee 88%
Romney 82%
Giuliani 79%
Gingrich 79%
Paul 66%
Bachmann 45%
Pawlenty 34%
Barbour 33%
Santorum 32%
Cain 16%
Thune 16%
Huntsman 13%
Daniels 12%
Ron Paul. Not because he'll win, because popular opinion puts his national percentage at somewhere between 4-10%, depending on the polling firm, but because of how he affects the race. He takes some away from the front runners and can easily change the dynamics of the Republican Primary.
HUNTSMAN, OF COURSE
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How about Ron Paul for the "bonus Republican" choice?
Please keep polling 2nd choice in the 2012 GOP national polls. That will give us some kind of idea of what happens if some of the favorites don't run.
Thank you.
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