Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Huckabee up in Iowa, Romney otherwise

Mike Huckabee remains the clear GOP frontrunner in Iowa if he decides to run for President again in 2012. If he doesn't run Mitt Romney rises to the top of the polls in the state. And Iowa is one place where Republicans voters are not yet buying into the Donald Trump hype.

27% of Republicans name Huckabee as their first choice compared to 16% for Romney, 14% for Trump, 9% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Sarah Palin, 6% for Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul, and 5% for Tim Pawlenty.

Huckabee's doing pretty well with every segment of the GOP electorate in the state. He edges out Trump 23-20 with voters describing themselves as Tea Partiers and has a wider 28-19 advantage over Romney with Republicans who don't consider themselves part of that movement. He also does pretty well going across the ideological spectrum- he trails Romney 23-21 with those describing themselves as moderates, but has a 27-17 advantage over Romney with voters describing themselves as 'somewhat conservative' that expands to 29-14 with those labeling themselves as 'very conservative.'

Trump doesn't seem to have a lot of appeal to Republicans in the state. He has only a narrowly positive favorability rating with 41% of voters saying they like him to 40% who don't. That 40% unfavorable number is 11 points higher than the next most unpopular of the GOP contenders, Sarah Palin. There is a significant birther presence in Iowa- 48% of Republican voters say they don't think Barack Obama was born in the United States- but Trump isn't even doing all that well with those folks, getting 19% to 25% for Huckabee.

If you take Trump out of the picture Huckabee leads with 30% to 18% for Romney, 12% for Palin and Gingrich, 7% for Pawlenty, and 6% for Bachmann and Paul. That 30/18 spread for Huckabee over Romney is identical to what we found in the state in January, indicating that nothing that's happened over the last three months has had much impact on the state of the race in Iowa beyond the possible Trump candidacy. Four other candidates were included in both the January and April polls- Ron Paul's support is steady at 6% and Newt Gingrich is down a single point from 13% to 12%. If there's a 'winner' in this poll it's Tim Pawlenty who's up to 7% from 4%, suggesting that he's slowly gaining steam and if there's a 'loser' it's Sarah Palin, who's down to 12% from 15%.

If Huckabee ends up sitting this one out Romney will become the favorite in Iowa. In a Huckabee and Trump free field Romney leads with 25% to 15% each for Paul, Palin, and Gingrich, 10% for Bachmann and 9% for Pawlenty. If you take Palin out of the field too Romney stands at 28% to 19% for Gingrich, 16% for Paul, 15% for Bachmann, and 9% for Pawlenty.

There are still signs within the poll of a tough road ahead for Romney even if some of his most prominent potential rivals do bow out though- only 11% of Iowa Republicans say they'd be willing to vote for someone who supported a bill at the state level mandating that people have health insurance compared to 63% who say that would be a disqualifier. It will be interesting to see if Romney's support can hold up once voters in the state get bombarded with communication about his health care record.

Full results here


Chris Roberts said...

Romney Is never going to win the Iowa caucus.If Huchabee and Palin
don't run Trump(If he actully Runs)
and Gingrich will Improve.

Romney's path to nomination IS Mccain's model.Win NH.Possibly losing In SC,and the race being deceded In Florida.

Romney will win the Michigan Primary and Nevada Caucus.He needs Florida to offset other southern losses.And like Mccain win Primarys In States that will vote Democratic In the fall.

I Am Iron Man said...

48% of Republicans in Iowa believe Obama was not born in the US? That just disgusts me. It really does. I'm so sick of these birther idiots.

It's amazing to me how many supposedly sane people believe (for absolutely no logical reason) that the President wasn't born in the US even with all of the legal evidence that anyone would ever need to prove their place of birth having been made public (his official birth certificate is online for all to see and confirmed by the State of Hawaii as being official) and there's even some additional (although unnecessary) proof with the two newspaper announcements.

It just makes absolutely no sense to think that Obama's 18 year old mother who had never been out of the US in her life - traveled to Kenya to have her first born child and then went right back to Hawaii. Think about that birthers! Seriously THINK for once in your lives. Your conspiracy makes NO LOGICAL sense and is completely devoid of any rational basis and is counter to all evidence.

(also please note that Obama's Kenyan grandmother did *NOT* say he was born in Africa, she said he was born in Hawaii --- that interview was edited to make it sound like she said something she did not.)


The one thing I am pleased to see in this poll is how unpopular Trump is even among Republicans... if he somehow manages to win the nomination it would really split the party. As an Obama supporter/Democrat I am pleased that he's doing well because I think he would be a disaster for the GOP. As an American it's very disturbing to see such an obviously ignorant lunatic leading the pack for one of the two major parties in the country.

Kevin said...

Okay, so Trump is in third place, but he's only been a possible contender for two months or so. Has he even been to Iowa?

By contrast, Huckabee and Romney campaigned like crazy in Iowa in 07-08, and have both been pretty high profile candidates for the past four years.

I still say Trump has a serious shot at the nomination....and I really, really hope he gets it, because Obama would destroy him in the general election

Anonymous said...

You are right....Trump would split the party if he runs as an independent. Could it be that is what he is trying to do??

mantei said...

Was HERMAN CAIN even a choice?? He has been consistently polling in the top 3 whenever he is included. Those of you want Trump's business acumen who's you know, not a fraud, you will love Cain.

Anonymous said...

Are you going to start including Giuliani in more of your trial runs? I've seen him polling 9 percent in two recent national polls and about the same in one Iowa poll. I don't see how he could be nominated, but I imagine he could pull significant support from some other candidates, maybe Romney and Trump.

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