tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post1201648087896578121..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Research 2000 NC PollTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-39703668818368938082008-09-12T13:54:00.000-05:002008-09-12T13:54:00.000-05:00Sheesh. OF COURSE he thinks he's right! Why is t...Sheesh. OF COURSE he thinks he's right! Why is this a shocking development. He's created complicated models, I presume, based on certain demographic trends, turnout assumptions, etc. If he doesn't believe in his own numbers ... I can't even finish this sentence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-63813498115432481552008-09-12T13:24:00.000-05:002008-09-12T13:24:00.000-05:00Here are some data points that DO NOT point well f...Here are some data points that DO NOT point well for Reps. JUst this WEEK in NC, Dems registered over 7,000 new voters, Indies registered almost 6,000, and Reps 2,500 voters. It is this discrepancy between where people are moving with their feet (or better said with their party id) and where SUSA is showing it (a tossup with an even split between the number of Dems and number of Reps showing up) that just does not jive. <BR/><BR/>If ranjit wants to follow SUSA, fine by me, but I will follow hard, objective numbers that cannot be spun or disputed and those numbers do NOT show a wide swing to the Reps.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-19188694396998503342008-09-12T11:00:00.000-05:002008-09-12T11:00:00.000-05:00Well, something is happening in North Carolina. Mo...Well, something is happening in North Carolina. More and more, it looks like it might be a bigger win for McCain.<BR/><BR/>One Key aspect of Charolette area was interesting. McCain is doing extremely well. If the numbers reflect that, there is a good chance for McCroy to be the next governor. I am biased for Republicans but, more and more data points to that direction.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-34239387311725566182008-09-11T23:53:00.000-05:002008-09-11T23:53:00.000-05:00Just ask yourself in any election in NC have indep...Just ask yourself in any election in NC have independents EVER (excepting 1984 election which was a landslide) broken 60-30 in favor of one candidate? If not, that should answer your question about which NC polls are closer to the mark and which are off base.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6320089703878748462008-09-11T22:58:00.000-05:002008-09-11T22:58:00.000-05:00I received lots of e-mails this week asking me why...I received lots of e-mails this week asking me why the polls in North Carolina are so divergent, and who I think is 'right.' I am just giving my honest answer to that question based on poll demographic breakdowns and companies' prior history polling in the state.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-88732705495888084662008-09-11T22:00:00.000-05:002008-09-11T22:00:00.000-05:00Tom,Why do you continually denounce other polling ...Tom,<BR/><BR/>Why do you continually denounce other polling agencies, when they conflict with your own company.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-34034696426384258382008-09-11T21:27:00.000-05:002008-09-11T21:27:00.000-05:00R2K has a smaller Democratic advantage (+9) than e...R2K has a smaller Democratic advantage (+9) than either PPP or Civitas (+13).<BR/>But more striking is the difference in how the Independent support splits:<BR/>NC <B>close</B>: PPP <B>44-43</B>; Civitas <B>46-42</B><BR/>NC <B>far-apart</B>: SUSA <B>59-34</B>; R2K <B>62-31</B><BR/><BR/>I guess we'll find out who's right... No disrespect, Tom - though since you are based in NC, I tend to trust your poll!<BR/><BR/>(I read someplace Obama pulled his staffers out of GA and into NC - I guess their internals follow PPP/Civitas!)RShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09380182761372599473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-80848754988934480242008-09-11T19:37:00.000-05:002008-09-11T19:37:00.000-05:00Why can't their polls be "right" and yours be wron...Why can't their polls be "right" and yours be wrong?<BR/><BR/>The election hasn't happened yet so to call other people out like that is rather childish.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-36345862461551901362008-09-11T19:30:00.000-05:002008-09-11T19:30:00.000-05:00I don't think that's something polling companies r...I don't think that's something polling companies really do.<BR/><BR/>I don't have a problem with Research 2000- usually they're just fine, but it is frustrating to see two different polls go so far off in the state in one week.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-24422794466872583012008-09-11T18:55:00.000-05:002008-09-11T18:55:00.000-05:00Wow, don't hold back or anything. Please tell us ...Wow, don't hold back or anything. Please tell us how you really feel about Research 2000.<BR/><BR/>Truthfully, I think they "threw" this poll in order to show that they aren't always biased toward Democrats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com