tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post1368773237559893679..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: NC looks like it would be competitive againTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-32523065418017134042010-11-29T16:28:31.999-05:002010-11-29T16:28:31.999-05:00Obama will have to turn out the college age voters...Obama will have to turn out the college age voters that are prevalent in NC in droves to win there again in 2012. I remember being asked to register to vote about 10 times in the final week of registration by people around campus. Unfortunately, I didn't have a permanent address there so I had to waste my vote in KY. Can we please get rid of the electoral college? Speaking of which, have you all done any polling on the electoral college?ARealSenatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07232776973041916701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-16750810229974908392010-11-29T12:21:50.656-05:002010-11-29T12:21:50.656-05:00It's just registered voters, but it turned out...It's just registered voters, but it turned out to be an electorate that's between '08 and '10, closer to '08.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-42563810187169115532010-11-27T00:53:22.175-05:002010-11-27T00:53:22.175-05:00I didn't look at the details of the poll, but ...I didn't look at the details of the poll, but did you revert back to a model closer to the 2008 turnout? I am trying to figure out how Obama went from really unpopular with NC voters before the 2010 election to having the advantage in the state going into the 2012 election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-8255998463599527422010-11-24T12:26:30.446-05:002010-11-24T12:26:30.446-05:00If Obama is keeping NC close in 2012, it's goi...If Obama is keeping NC close in 2012, it's going to be a short election night. Because the state to its north, Virginia, has similar demographics, is slightly bluer than NC, and is critical to the GOP electoral map.<br /><br />At least this gives us another arrow in our quiver to beg GOP primary voters not to vote for Palin.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-27460739709539269962010-11-23T20:39:51.616-05:002010-11-23T20:39:51.616-05:00This reinforces the regional appeal of the candida...This reinforces the regional appeal of the candidates.<br /><br />Huckabee runs well in the South, where his primary characteristic (his far-right social stances) is popular. That same characteristic, however, limits his ability to put any blue states into contention, where his social stances are not widely popular and where his economic ideas frighten the financial industry. North Carolina is developing a split between its productive Research Triangle and the rural rest of the state, and Huckabee does well in the rural area, but can't penetrate the Research Triangle for a big lead.<br /><br />Palin can count on being the Tea Party candidate if she wants the role, which is not a positive in a high-turnout scenario like a presidential year but could have some strength anywhere. Romney could put some blue states potentially on the table, but between RomneyCare, his compromises as governor of Massachusetts, and being a Mormon, he turns off large segments of the far-right Republican base in the South.<br /><br />Huckabee still looks like the strongest Republican candidate, particularly if he were to manage to distance himself from his previously-claimed economic theories. At the very least, Huckabee could be expected to win the states a Republican should win (the McCain states plus Indiana, and keeping Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio on the table).NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.com