tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post1873463141410649107..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Republicans optimistic, Democrats skepticalTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-91803332749612998202010-09-16T13:31:29.237-05:002010-09-16T13:31:29.237-05:00"Your sample skews too Democratic. There is l..."Your sample skews too Democratic. There is little chance that the electorate this November will self-identify as D+5."<br /><br />As we've already discussed, the sample is, as always, of registered voters, not likely voters. It's useful to compare what's actually being seen in this fall's races to what would have happened had all registered voters who sometimes but not always vote had showed up.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-71075754475187933722010-09-16T11:03:08.291-05:002010-09-16T11:03:08.291-05:00Those "very excited" to vote (who prefer...Those "very excited" to vote (who prefer Republicans) are more likely to disapprove of the GOP congress than those "not very excited" (who prefer Democrats), 61% vs 56% -- top left page 6.<br /><br />--> Much of the disapproval of the GOP congress is regret that they are not more conservative, that they do not do more to oppose the Demoncrats' radical agenda. <br /><br />Men are more likely to be undecided on the generic ballot than women (13% vs 9%). --> Republicans have more room to open up a larger lead.Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-50434400276367230552010-09-16T10:49:22.825-05:002010-09-16T10:49:22.825-05:00Funny you don't ask if there's any place f...Funny you don't ask if there's any place for moderates on the Democrat plantation. Anyone who didn't vote for the socialist healthcare tyranny or the cap-and-trade fix for the phony global warming fraud or support the abolition of secret ballots for unionization was targeted by the thugs and slavemasters of the Demoncrat Party.Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-43541855956545073592010-09-16T10:30:46.295-05:002010-09-16T10:30:46.295-05:00Oh, I see--your sample is RV not LV. While an RV ...Oh, I see--your sample is RV not LV. While an RV sample with a D+5 party ID is not completely unreasonable (although it still tilts a little too Democratic), a generic ballot result based on RV is not very meaningful at this point in the cycle. Why would you switch back to RV, other than partisan cheerleading?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54533156071543753402010-09-16T10:30:00.291-05:002010-09-16T10:30:00.291-05:00PPP should do a battleground poll of likely voters...PPP should do a battleground poll of likely voters. Pick the top 100 districts.<br /><br />Any polling out there has to factor in the democratic seats in new york city, los angeles, boston, chicago, houston, miami, etc... where the democrat receives 80% of the vote. This should be discounted in any generic ballot. There are very few GOP districts that are like this.Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-86807540614604423302010-09-16T10:23:16.497-05:002010-09-16T10:23:16.497-05:00Your sample skews too Democratic. There is little...Your sample skews too Democratic. There is little chance that the electorate this November will self-identify as D+5.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-90007040504489292972010-09-16T07:57:18.230-05:002010-09-16T07:57:18.230-05:00"They could also answer that, "No, becau..."They could also answer that, "No, because we're all going to go out and vote to stop it.""<br /><br />But they're not doing that. That's Tom's point.<br /><br />"If Republicans fail to win the Senate (or House) in this November's elections, do you think it would be caused by fraud or natural reasons?"<br /><br />Like a heart attack?Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-18774627889328360472010-09-16T07:05:08.184-05:002010-09-16T07:05:08.184-05:00Democrats better WAKE UP! Imagine these nutty tea ...Democrats better WAKE UP! Imagine these nutty tea party people in charge of our country!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-55821421819065100262010-09-15T21:00:40.670-05:002010-09-15T21:00:40.670-05:00I suggest a possible question for next time to Rep...I suggest a possible question for next time to Republicans:<br /><br />If Republicans fail to win the Senate (or House) in this November's elections, do you think it would be caused by fraud or natural reasons?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60390583948091062952010-09-15T20:41:47.075-05:002010-09-15T20:41:47.075-05:00Your question was wrong if that's what you wer...Your question was wrong if that's what you were trying to get out of it. "Do you think Republicans will take control of the House this year?"<br /><br />Yes, people could answer that, "No, so there's no need to vote."<br /><br />They could also answer that, "No, because we're all going to go out and vote to stop it."<br /><br />I think this would've been a better question:<br />Do you think Republicans it's possible will take control of the House this year?<br /><br />If only 22% of Democrats thought it could possibly happen, then you'd know they don't see trouble.DBLnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79667520698932627732010-09-15T19:20:00.879-05:002010-09-15T19:20:00.879-05:00Check out the Greenberg memo for further informati...Check out the Greenberg memo for further information.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-68968151462733907392010-09-15T19:19:15.180-05:002010-09-15T19:19:15.180-05:00This is interesting. If you add up very excited v...This is interesting. If you add up very excited voters and somewhat excited voters you get 39-38 Rep. The not so exciteds go heavily Dem. This poll projects to 52 percent of the 2 party vote for Dems rather handily. Even with likelies. Our polls show a 50-50 race with the tie being enthusiasm based. Otherwise Democrats would wax them. If Boehner holds tax cuts hostage, we have data to suggest Dems could hold losses under 10 in House and 2 in Senate, so stay tuned to as American politics is as unstable as it has ever been.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com