tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post3005962484304558462..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Dems ahead for both NY Senate seatsTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-90817412296921093462010-10-06T14:08:54.310-05:002010-10-06T14:08:54.310-05:00Yes, a lot of potential. But this is a classic chi...Yes, a lot of potential. But this is a classic chicken-egg problem. DioGuardi needs to gather momentum so he can get money, and needs money so he can gather momentum.<br /><br />I think it'll be between 5-15 points, but the odds of beating Gilly look smaller daily.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56208625298551378632010-10-06T13:51:23.710-05:002010-10-06T13:51:23.710-05:00I did an analysis two weeks ago, comparing two pol...I did an analysis two weeks ago, comparing two polls done in the same time frame by two different pollsters. PPP was the most Democratic. Rasmussen was generally 1.2% more Republican. Quinnipiac is skewing more Republican. SurveyUSA is skewing so Republican that it's difficult to take their numbers seriously. <br /><br />You could argue that the difference between Rasmussen and PPP is so small that the margin of error could explain it. That's true, but on the whole if PPP has a candidate ahead by 10, the others who have put out a lot of polls will have it closer. This skew can explain why SurveyUSA is at D+1 and Quinnipiac is at D+6.<br /><br />http://wheresthepartydoc.blogspot.com/2010/09/pollster-skew.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11928675187803337574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-52444923740149461672010-10-06T13:44:25.627-05:002010-10-06T13:44:25.627-05:00People split their votes all the time.You could sa...People split their votes all the time.You could say that they it usually happens moderates and that Schumer is very liberal, while DioGuardi has made himself over as being conservative. The problem is that you have it backwards. DioGuardi isn't getting Schumer voters. Schumer is getting DioGuardi voters. <br /><br />In 2008 Thad Cochran got 75,000 more votes than Roger Wicker. Those people voted for Cochran and Musgrave for the two U.S. Sentate seats. Like Cochran, Schumer is seen as someone who does a good job and represents New York well. Will Jay Townsend? <br /><br />At minimum DioGuardi will get 300,000 more votes than Townsend. I'd guess it'll be 500,000.<br /><br />PPP can probably tell you what percentage of Shumer voters DioGuardi is getting. Paladino is a true tea party guy and he'll probably get a similar number of Schumer voters.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11928675187803337574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-57208908389161284442010-10-06T12:14:54.161-05:002010-10-06T12:14:54.161-05:00I'm not saying that DioGuardi will win, but th...I'm not saying that DioGuardi will win, but there's a lot of Scott Brown potential here, DioGuardi just needs the money.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-18381874028585372672010-10-06T12:11:40.847-05:002010-10-06T12:11:40.847-05:00"PPP has had the Democratic skew of all the m..."PPP has had the Democratic skew of all the major pollsters."<br /><br />Not really. Since moving to our likely voter screen, our numbers and Rasmussen's have been pretty close on most races. We were the first to have Raese up in WV.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-24224475746060329192010-10-06T12:08:26.033-05:002010-10-06T12:08:26.033-05:00I can understand that while Gilibrand has a double...I can understand that while Gilibrand has a double digit lead and is over 50% that she's considered vulnerable, but its just so implausible that she could lose. For one thing, that would mean an awfully large number of voters would have to vote for Schumer AND DioGuardi. How many people are going to vote for a Tea Partier like DioGuardi and simultaneously vote for a man who could potentially be Harry Reid's replacement in the Republicans' Obama/Pelosi/Reid Axis of Liberalism?AGnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-23244278779576421352010-10-06T11:59:23.814-05:002010-10-06T11:59:23.814-05:00This is surprising in that the numbers favoring Gi...This is surprising in that the numbers favoring Gillibrand are similar to Rasmussen and Marist. PPP has had the Democratic skew of all the major pollsters. DioGuardi is picking up 19% of the Democrats, an unusually high number this year. If he can up that a few points and pull Republicans and independents the way other Republican candidates are, he could win.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11928675187803337574noreply@blogger.com