tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post3618867920187726891..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Unhappy Democrats are more likely to voteTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17764935042718649822010-09-27T15:01:35.036-05:002010-09-27T15:01:35.036-05:00"Shouldn't you be comparing state LV appr..."Shouldn't you be comparing state LV approval among Obama '08 voters to *state* registered Dem approval among Obama '08 voters now?"<br /><br />2 things:<br /><br />1.) We don't report what people are actually registered as; we report what they say they are.<br /><br />2.) We can't compare LV to RV within a single poll because our screen bumps out people who aren't likely to vote right from the start. It's not a matter of us guessing who's going to vote or not.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74067985854135854882010-09-26T10:36:17.054-05:002010-09-26T10:36:17.054-05:00Shouldn't you be comparing state LV approval a...Shouldn't you be comparing state LV approval among Obama '08 voters to *state* registered Dem approval among Obama '08 voters now? I doubt the latter is 88, 88, 88... for every state you list. You list high values in CA and TX; if they're high in other big states like NY, you get a high national %.Thomas Nephewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01019400893103077252noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-70884984522645883732010-09-24T20:49:03.845-05:002010-09-24T20:49:03.845-05:00I don't think your conclusion follows from the...I don't think your conclusion follows from the data. For one, the way in which the poll differentiates between "likely" versus "registered" voters may cause some of the discrepency.<br /><br />Obama's numbers are most likely still high among young people, minorities, and others who voted in 2008 but haven't voted otherwise. I wouldn't say they are complacent with the state of things, but more that their electoral interest was more focused on Obama than on Democrats in general.<br /><br />Alternatively, a better explanation is that voters who approve of Obama may disapprove of Democrats in Congress and the mess that Democratic control has been. You can make some jokes about Obama, but the real butt of the jokes (and low popularity ratings) come to the complete inability of huge Democratic majorities to run Congress effectively.<br /><br />Either way, I don't think voters are "complacent."Justinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03573264252367685765noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-76556546592334198602010-09-24T07:48:02.147-05:002010-09-24T07:48:02.147-05:00So Obama voters are still essentially happy with w...So Obama voters are still essentially happy with what the President has done in office in the past two years. But because they are happy they are less likely to get out and vote? Is this the new reason being rolled out and meme tested? Because Obama voters are happy the Democrats will loose seats in Congress? I am sorry but this is h0^^$&$!t. Where is the polling on the decrease in people identifying as Democrats? Where is the analysis of why huge increases are occurring the numbers voting in Republican primaries as opposed to Democratic ones. Spinning that Dems are so happy that they are going to sit on their asses and not vote is ridiculous. They are not going to vote because they have been screwed and have nada to vote for. And then there are the old coalition voters who were told they were no longer needed. This is a revenge election to them. And remember that it is still politically incorrect to oppose this president if you are a Democrat. This is skewing polling.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-10671280238636404532010-09-23T08:10:53.812-05:002010-09-23T08:10:53.812-05:00"Does the people who voted for Obama include ..."Does the people who voted for Obama include Independent voters or are they talking about Democrats only?"<br /><br />It's anyone who said they voted for Obama in 2008 when we asked them. It's a question we ask on every public poll we do as a demographic marker and to help demonstrate the size of the enthusiasm gap.<br /><br />"Where does New York fit compared to the other states? I'd be very interested to see you poll NY."<br /><br />We haven't polled NY yet this cycle (except the 19th CD for DailyKos last week) because both Senate races and the gov. race were looking to be blowouts until this week. I'm a native NYer, so I wouldn't mind polling there, but it probably won't be on the top of our list until it looks like Cuomo and Gillibrand are really in trouble.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-33328722486728104802010-09-22T20:18:56.454-05:002010-09-22T20:18:56.454-05:00Where does New York fit compared to the other stat...Where does New York fit compared to the other states? I'd be very interested to see you poll NY.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-34718722009071713002010-09-22T19:32:31.776-05:002010-09-22T19:32:31.776-05:00Here's the Obama voter who is more likely to s...Here's the Obama voter who is more likely to show up. Those who see that the results of Democrats' policies has been misery.<br /><br />http://www.breitbart.tv/obama-supporter-im-exhausted-of-defending-you/Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-10110731168548944092010-09-22T18:44:10.643-05:002010-09-22T18:44:10.643-05:00anonymous, it's possible they could be. i assu...anonymous, it's possible they could be. i assume these would be the centrists who flip right or left whichever way the wind is blowing.geekmomhttp://www.geekmom.netnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17804526652644203562010-09-22T18:29:20.835-05:002010-09-22T18:29:20.835-05:00Does the people who voted for Obama include Indepe...Does the people who voted for Obama include Independent voters or are they talking about Democrats only?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79684451263424568792010-09-22T15:49:58.720-05:002010-09-22T15:49:58.720-05:00"Beyond that, I realized today, that Obama vo..."Beyond that, I realized today, that Obama voters who are planning to show up generally have more negative feelings toward him than Obama voters at large. And obviously the folks who voted for Obama but have soured on him are more likely to fall into the GOP column."<br /><br />Now wait a minute--this does not follow at all. There are plenty of Democrats which are mad at Obama for not being liberal enough. They certainly are not "more likely to fall into the GOP column."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com