tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post4464818507405274626..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Sestak, Toomey tiedTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79635001022511383292010-06-22T18:59:24.687-05:002010-06-22T18:59:24.687-05:00If TX and PA are as tied as NC-SEN Dem Primary, th...If TX and PA are as tied as NC-SEN Dem Primary, then we're off to a good start....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82663517341918038702010-06-22T16:29:26.323-05:002010-06-22T16:29:26.323-05:00Going solely by an RCP average is like going solel...Going solely by an RCP average is like going solely by a team's overall batting average for the season to determine how well a certain player on that team is currently playing, especially when you have few polls to begin with, and polls that are released over several months. Public opinion changes over time. The most recent poll other than ours on this race is Rasmussen's, which consistently has a Republican lean. Prior to that, the last polls came well over a month ago, and they showed Toomey leads of 1 or 2 points. How is that different from what we're showing, and how does that amount to 4 to 6 points? Toomey may have been up slightly a month ago (we can't corroborate since we hadn't polled PA since April 1st, and one or two points is hardly a lead with a 4-point or greater MOE), but Sestak has since pulled even.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-15944172625934570222010-06-22T16:18:30.605-05:002010-06-22T16:18:30.605-05:00'Peaked too early.' From a Tea Party membe...'Peaked too early.' From a Tea Party member not reflecting on his own movement. That's really quite amusing.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79540632494291063502010-06-22T15:30:52.113-05:002010-06-22T15:30:52.113-05:00Did drudge link here again or what's attractin...Did drudge link here again or what's attracting all the whiny conservatives? If all you want to believe is a Rasmussen poll, then just Read rasmussen polls, but don't be surprised if November won't be the complete wipeout of the Democratic Party that Rasmussen is projecting.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-66840515783574948572010-06-22T15:18:33.554-05:002010-06-22T15:18:33.554-05:00"The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee..."The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee outraised its GOP counterpart in May, but Republicans overtook the DSCC in the all important measure of cash on hand." (WaPo The Fix)<br /><br />In other words, Democrats' Senate committee outspent Republicans' committee, while Republicans have more cash in reserve. This can partially explain a pro-Democratic surge. The open question remains whether Democrats are getting enough return on their spending and whether Democrats have peaked too early. <br /><br />"We just report what people think."<br /><br />Yes, you may be reporting what registered voters think. But is the voter screen too loose to properly reflect likely midterm voters? PPP's polls have recently been skewing to the left of the RealClearPolitics consensus averages (Tx gov and Pa sen, for example). Are you picking up the early signs of races tightening? Or are you using a general election screen in a pro-republican midterm year?herbs814http://www.youtube.com/herbs814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-77587875052117450952010-06-22T15:00:31.038-05:002010-06-22T15:00:31.038-05:00The PPP and adding +4 to 6 is the result of compar...The PPP and adding +4 to 6 is the result of comparing PPP polls to the rest:<br /><br />http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_sestak_vs_toomey-1059.html<br /><br />I'd say Toomey is currently ahead by 4 or 5 points. That's before people discover that Sestak is a loony liberal.Jeremynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74796637850857497682010-06-22T14:03:55.853-05:002010-06-22T14:03:55.853-05:00"always add plus 4 to 6 for Republicans for P..."always add plus 4 to 6 for Republicans for PPP polls"<br /><br />You can do that if you want to have inaccurate results.<br /><br />We just report what people think. Blame voters if reality doesn't align with your wishes.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-76847530111694410892010-06-22T12:33:43.869-05:002010-06-22T12:33:43.869-05:00Go Toomey!Go Toomey!Daniel Warren Curtishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13695320962483203358noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-78771405049988583572010-06-22T11:59:08.549-05:002010-06-22T11:59:08.549-05:00must be the day when you guys try to show Dems are...must be the day when you guys try to show Dems are alright and put polls out showing ties<br /><br />always add plus 4 to 6 for Republicans for PPP pollsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com