tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post4913707310189405697..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Lynch leads by 12Tom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-61750281894297551362010-09-19T14:25:40.520-05:002010-09-19T14:25:40.520-05:00Rasmussen also claimed that John Sununu had sudden...Rasmussen also claimed that John Sununu had suddenly vaulted ten points after the Republican primary in 2008 and was leading Jeanne Shaheen - literally the only pollster the entire race to show Sununu ahead. Then he lost by ten. Rasmussen also gave Rand Paul a twenty-four point lead immediately after the Kentucky primary, then backed it down to single digits a week later. Rasmussen has a terrible record when polling right after primaries.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-23273938014522839712010-09-18T07:33:07.453-05:002010-09-18T07:33:07.453-05:00Rasmussen provides the first post-primary look:
L...Rasmussen provides the first post-primary look:<br /><br />Lynch 48, Stephen 46<br /><br />But I'm sure Lynch will win by 14, right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-55358408009297464022010-09-17T07:54:34.401-05:002010-09-17T07:54:34.401-05:00Dustin, you're basing that strictly on one com...Dustin, you're basing that strictly on one company's pre-primary poll from last weekend.<br /><br />I hope you will agree that the general election is unlikely to be held last weekend - and that undecideds will not simply break proportionally in a Republican wave.<br /><br />55-45 is an educated estimate of the likely Ayotte-Hodes election day outcome. The assessment is, of course, debatable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-43661906631860852512010-09-17T04:26:35.127-05:002010-09-17T04:26:35.127-05:00I'm not sure how you're doing your math, b...I'm not sure how you're doing your math, but if the undecideds break proportionately, Lynch would win 57-43, not 53-47. Ayotte would win 52-48, not 55-45.<br /><br />"(Spare me the blather about the senate race being competitive from the people who thought Elaine Marshall could get close to Burr.)"<br /><br />Did I miss the election?<br /><br />She's been persistently down, but only by 5 last month. We'll see what we find in September, but I can guarantee SurveyUSA and Rasmussen are way off.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82958405344697542692010-09-16T16:31:15.638-05:002010-09-16T16:31:15.638-05:00Stephen runs 8 points behind Ayotte presently. As...Stephen runs 8 points behind Ayotte presently. Assuming Ayotte wins around 55-45, Stephen would lose 47-53 (2-party share).<br /><br />Independents and Republicans are key; Stephen needs to turn around 3 points of support overall, mostly from those two groups.<br /><br />(Spare me the blather about the senate race being competitive from the people who thought Elaine Marshall could get close to Burr.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com