tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post5075558430361680485..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Voter Movement in VirginiaTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-89818683199685075952008-10-26T13:34:00.000-05:002008-10-26T13:34:00.000-05:00Yes there is tightening. I think Obama is still u...Yes there is tightening. I think Obama is still up but not by as much.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-33262052512102127152008-10-26T12:40:00.000-05:002008-10-26T12:40:00.000-05:00Tom, any hints on North Carolina? I'm interested i...Tom, any hints on North Carolina? I'm interested in seeing whether its showing any tightening since McCain and Palin started actually campaigning therettfrenzyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613980381375475552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-31703876650134635012008-10-26T11:23:00.000-05:002008-10-26T11:23:00.000-05:00Tom, are y'all in the field in Georgia yet, and, i...Tom, are y'all in the field in Georgia yet, and, if so, how's it looking?drewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17065171132689799410noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-92092602690114249622008-10-25T23:09:00.000-05:002008-10-25T23:09:00.000-05:00I have a tough time believing the party id numbers...I have a tough time believing the party id numbers in the poll. Exit polls from previous Pres elections in VA show either an even split among Reps and Dems or a slight edge (3 or 4 pts) for Reps amongst those who voted in VA. The party id numbers shown in this poll would only be reasonable if one were to assume this is going to be a Dem tsuanmi election. Perhaps. But from a purely historical voting pattern perspective I think at best Dems will manage a +3 or 4 in terms of turnout over the Reps, which would roughly swing PPPs topline numbers from a 9 pt advantage for Obama to more of a 3 or 4 pt advantage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75707718292979782782008-10-25T22:38:00.000-05:002008-10-25T22:38:00.000-05:00(Same anonymous as above. I should really get an I...(Same anonymous as above. I should really get an ID sometime.)<BR/><BR/>The thing is that we would expect 2&3 to be about the same across all the states. Or at least 3 would be a function of Bush disapproval. But in contrast, your 2004 numbers seem to have been about right across FL, WV, OH. But not in IN - which I don't think is known for its large number of liberal immigrants over the last 4 years. In fact, Indiana has had relatively good approval ratings for Bush - that last poll of there that I could find was SUSA giving him 40% approval in February.<BR/><BR/>So I'm thinking now that it isn't specifically people not wanting to take responsibility for Bush. The common thing about Indiana and Virginia is that they've 'blued' on the presidential level a lot more than the nation as a whole over the past 4 years, for one reason or another, and hence there are many people who've turned against the Republican party, and don't want to admit that they once supported it.<BR/><BR/>My guess is that if you ask the Kerry/Bush question in your next and last NC poll, you'll find a similar dynamic going on again. Probably in MT as well.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-59626990886095277782008-10-25T18:29:00.000-05:002008-10-25T18:29:00.000-05:00I think it's a combination of 1) what you said, 2)...I think it's a combination of 1) what you said, 2) people saying they voted who didn't really, and 3) people not taking responsibility for voting for Bush.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-31865410996361377862008-10-25T18:27:00.000-05:002008-10-25T18:27:00.000-05:00What worries me about VA is that your poll has a l...What worries me about VA is that your poll has a lot more Kerry supporters than actually were in Virginia, 2004.<BR/>Perhaps many of them moved to VA from more liberal, northern states?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com