tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post5232509337000082789..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Good election for IVRTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-4366238510886075572009-11-06T08:35:31.683-05:002009-11-06T08:35:31.683-05:00re Obama job approval in NJ, it's hard not to ...re Obama job approval in NJ, it's hard not to come to the conclusion that PPP was an outlier, whatever the reason. Per <a href="http://www.pollster.com/polls/nj/job-obama.php" rel="nofollow">data collected at Pollster.com</a>, no other poll in the past month+, IVR or otherwise, had Obama at lower than 52% approve, compared to 45% in the last PPP. I don't buy that only a lower Obama job approval # could explain a Corzine defeat -- with Corzine's own approval as low as it was and the reasons for that, he was beyond Obama's help.Mike Mokrzyckinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-8402547771841786032009-11-06T08:23:37.944-05:002009-11-06T08:23:37.944-05:00Not to pick a fight but it's a little funny to...Not to pick a fight but it's a little funny to see Tom allege cherry picking when he omitted any mention of the <a href="http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/11/hoffman-leads-big.html" rel="nofollow">NY-23 "Hoffman leads big" debacle</a>. Then again, because I like my cherries with context, that <i>was</i> an awfully volatile situation. And Tom also neglected to mention PPP was the only pollster of any stripe to have Yes at all ahead on the gay-marriage prop in Maine.Mike Mokrzyckinoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-20020476970851244542009-11-05T14:09:19.320-05:002009-11-05T14:09:19.320-05:00I'm sure it's some sort of methodological ...I'm sure it's some sort of methodological difference between exit polling and IVR. Ask Blumenthal to figure it out.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17866768222375927152009-11-05T14:05:30.641-05:002009-11-05T14:05:30.641-05:00So then how do you explain the discrepancy between...So then how do you explain the discrepancy between the vote number and the approval numbers?<br /><br />Christie beat Corzine among a group of voters who have a 45% approval of the President.<br /><br />Or:<br /><br />Christie beat Corzine among a group of voters who have a 57% approval of the President.<br /><br />I think that's fairly significant and should be looked into.Russnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-10214369642637601942009-11-05T10:37:05.423-05:002009-11-05T10:37:05.423-05:00Russ,
I don't think you understand poll weigh...Russ,<br /><br />I don't think you understand poll weighting. The entire poll gets weighted, not just the horse race. In our last poll Christie was up 47-41 with a group of voters giving Obama a 45% approval rating. If we had found a 57% approval rating for Obama the Corzine/Christie numbers probably would have been reversed.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56873800144993781982009-11-05T02:21:56.567-05:002009-11-05T02:21:56.567-05:00No need to cherry pick. It's kind of a no-bra...No need to cherry pick. It's kind of a no-brainer that I'd trust the final wave of exit polls over any survey done before the election.<br /><br />Oh and I made a mistake, it appears. Your final poll for NJ had the President's approval at 45%. A lot of the rest of your internals were flaky as well. <br /><br />Sorry, but that's an issue that should be looked at. If you don't feel that way well, oh well. Not much I can do about it. If all you care about is the final result, then why release the other sample questions/all internals?Russnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-38860821800011485552009-11-05T01:18:49.121-05:002009-11-05T01:18:49.121-05:00Assuming that the exit poll was correct on Obama&#...Assuming that the exit poll was correct on Obama's approval and we weren't when we got the horse race correct is a leap. I don't think we're doing anything 'wrong' in measuring his approval, just sounds like you're a poll cherry picker.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-2522232407216963982009-11-04T23:44:29.883-05:002009-11-04T23:44:29.883-05:00Careful.
You totally botched NY-23 and were off...Careful. <br /><br />You totally botched NY-23 and were off badly in terms of measuring the President's approval rating in NJ (you had 47%), exits showed it to be a much healthier 57%.<br /><br />Looks to me like you just weighted better in NJ than some others.<br /><br />Also means we should take your and -- and Rasmussen's -- coverage of the President's approval rating with a heavy dose of salt until you figure out what you're doing wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-68045069130626393902009-11-04T13:45:16.609-05:002009-11-04T13:45:16.609-05:00Do you call cell-phone only households? Could tha...Do you call cell-phone only households? Could that be the reason for the + R advantage you found in your polls?Rational Jhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02471851319039950553noreply@blogger.com