tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post5415242654625114719..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama weak in PennsylvaniaTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75418230621940412072011-07-20T00:43:26.039-05:002011-07-20T00:43:26.039-05:00A huge supporter of OBAMA. Obama 2012! Please don&...A huge supporter of OBAMA. Obama 2012! Please don't forget to donate to his campaign :)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-10357388234060695432011-07-11T23:19:35.255-05:002011-07-11T23:19:35.255-05:00RE: "The fact that so many young voters are w...RE: "The fact that so many young voters are willing to consider voting for a loon like Bachmann speaks volumes about disaffection with Obama's performance."<br /><br />I really think it has far more to do with those young voters not being aware of who Michele Bachmann is. My fellow political junkies often forget how out of the loop so many of our fellow Americans are. Particularly young ones.I Am Iron Manhttp://www.thepresidentialcandidates.usnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-45430055967719937822011-07-11T03:44:20.932-05:002011-07-11T03:44:20.932-05:00Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the east, Pittsbur...Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the east, Pittsburgh in the west, and Alabama in the middle.James Carvillenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75918436071381748882011-07-09T12:43:13.523-05:002011-07-09T12:43:13.523-05:00First, Romney hasn't a whelk's chance in a...First, Romney hasn't a whelk's chance in a supernova of taking Michigan. "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" made him persona non grata in that state. Nobody else on the Republican side comes anywhere close either.<br /><br />Any Republican candidate for 2012 who looks at the electoral map knows that they have an awful lot of must-win states. Obama holds large, solid leads in most of the states that went blue in all three of the prior Presidential elections (that is, any state that voted for Gore AND voted for Kerry AND voted for Obama). Pennsylvania is the only state meeting those criteria so far that looks like it might have any chance of being competitive in 2012. Balancing that, though, are Colorado and Virginia, both of which are looking like easy Obama holds so far, as well as Iowa where he's also held a solid consistent lead. <br /><br />If Obama holds the rest of the solid-blue states, plus Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa, then Republicans need to sweep every other swing state plus Pennsylvania to eke out a very narrow win. That would be coming from behind in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and either emerging from a tie or holding to tiny leads in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. Losing any of Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, or Pennsylvania makes the map unwinnable for a Republican. Losing Missouri or Arizona along with any other state also makes the map unwinnable for a Republican.<br /><br />It's not no chance, but when one side needs to win everything and the other side only needs to win anything, there's a pretty clear advantage showing.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-38958880131117927032011-07-09T12:23:40.369-05:002011-07-09T12:23:40.369-05:00Why do you still poll Cain and Pawlenty? Both of t...Why do you still poll Cain and Pawlenty? Both of them do weaker than Paul in the primary polling and there is no particular reason for them to be there anymore instead of Paul.<br /><br />also, @todd, general election polls generally show Ron Paul either performing best against Obama or second/third. This is because what he lacks for in strength among Republicans he makes up for in strength with independents. Obama still probably wins, true, but Obama still wins against just about all of the Republicans right now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-14564979002622610692011-07-09T11:21:08.758-05:002011-07-09T11:21:08.758-05:00"Ask any political operative and they'll ..."Ask any political operative and they'll tell you that any time an incubment is polling at 50% or lower s/he is in serious trouble."<br /><br />Uh, not true. As I said in another thread, if I had a nickel for every time an incumbent was polling under 50% almost a year and a half before an election, I'd be Warren Buffett.<br /><br />"As for the person who mention the GOP Gov (Corbett): A) He's not as unpopular as you think"<br /><br />He's no John Kasich or Rick Scott, no, but a lot of PA voters are undecided on him. Still, he's certainly not popular. His 34-44 approval-disapproval mark in April isn't too pretty.<br /><br />"Give me Bachmann, Palin, or Ron Paul ANY DAY over McCain or Romney."<br /><br />I hope Republican voters agree with you.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-48025878429349625632011-07-09T08:12:27.670-05:002011-07-09T08:12:27.670-05:00Well Todd like a fool once said, in the real world...Well Todd like a fool once said, in the real world, wanting something to be true does not necessarily equate to something being true.<br /><br />What is truly needed is a primary challenge to Obama. He is on his way to being as damaged as Bush was in his second term.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-73252077268250369092011-07-08T20:14:58.293-05:002011-07-08T20:14:58.293-05:00@ Jonny V:
Please grow a pair! Most conservative...@ Jonny V: <br /><br />Please grow a pair! Most conservatives and Republicans alike are SICK of the fact that there is NEVER a TRUE CONSERVATIVE on the ballot. Romney would lose the same way McCain did. We want SUBSTANCE over SLICK. Give me Bachmann, Palin, or Ron Paul ANY DAY over McCain or Romney.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-81060305182474132552011-07-08T15:51:45.920-05:002011-07-08T15:51:45.920-05:00Republican path to victory is something like this:...Republican path to victory is something like this:<br />1. Nominate Rommey<br />2. Pick Susana Martinez or Marco Rubio as VP<br />3. Dump money into Pennsylvania <br />4. ???<br />5. President Romney<br /><br />I predict you're going to see Romney targetting Ohio and Pennsylvania like crazy. Perhaps even Michigan. And while he's doing that, Martinez/Rubio campaign in states like FL, NM, NV and CO.<br /><br />I think 1 is probably the hardest for them to achieve.Kevinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-9862641728167013642011-07-08T15:42:27.147-05:002011-07-08T15:42:27.147-05:00Jonny V is obviously clueless. Ask any political ...Jonny V is obviously clueless. Ask any political operative and they'll tell you that any time an incubment is polling at 50% or lower s/he is in serious trouble. The fact that Obama, in a PPP poll no less, can't pull away from any of the legit GOP nominees in PA, a state he MUST have to win shows how weak he is right now. <br />As for the person who mention the GOP Gov (Corbett): A) He's not as unpopular as you think, B) There is not a single bit of hard evidence from any previous election that voters' views of their governor have any substantial effect on how they vote in the presidential race. Keeping wishing though, b/c the way the economy looks right now, wishes will be all Obama supporters have left come 11/12.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6265090322422579672011-07-08T15:27:48.877-05:002011-07-08T15:27:48.877-05:00If Obama's favourables breaking 46/48 is bad, ...If Obama's favourables breaking 46/48 is bad, then Romney's breaking 35/46 must be considered to be dismal.<br /><br />I see Romney picking up 9% of those with an unfavourable opinion of him to be classic "soft support". Consider also that only 45% of McCain voters have a favourable opinion of him. Contrast this with Bachmann and Palin showing 57% and 69% with McCain voters.<br /><br />So 34% of McCain voters don't like Romney, but say they will vote for him against Obama. Obama has 80% approval of those who voted for him in 2008, and 76% of them say they will vote for him.<br /><br />Looking at those numbers, which side has a likely enthusiasm/turnout/momentum problem?Todd Dugdale https://www.blogger.com/profile/17584727904734922884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-4374152421572387852011-07-08T15:11:31.354-05:002011-07-08T15:11:31.354-05:00Please add Ron Paul to both sides of the poll next...Please add Ron Paul to both sides of the poll next time. I.e. what if Republican Ron Paul squared off against bizarro Democrat Ron Paul in the Presidential race in North Carolina.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-58593108987842212372011-07-08T15:07:28.949-05:002011-07-08T15:07:28.949-05:00Anonymous wrote:
"Please poll Ron Paul too.&q...Anonymous wrote:<br />"<i>Please poll Ron Paul too.</i>"<br /><br />Everyone, <i>including you</i>, knows that the poll will show Paul far behind. <br /><br />Everyone, <i>including you</i>, knows that you will then stridently denounce the polling as fake, biased, rigged, and "a joke".<br /><br />It's kind of amazing that the people who regularly show up here telling everyone that PPP's work is "crap" seem to have no problem demanding more of it.<br /><br />In the real world, <i>wanting</i> something to be true does not necessarily equate to something <i>being</i> true.Todd Dugdale https://www.blogger.com/profile/17584727904734922884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-61589996805308193032011-07-08T15:03:41.357-05:002011-07-08T15:03:41.357-05:00You need a crosstab for regions of the state. That...You need a crosstab for regions of the state. That's where there is going to be the most significant variation in Obama's support.<br /><br />His support among older voters has always been soft. Now his support among voters under 30 has become weak. The fact that so many young voters are willing to consider voting for a loon like Bachmann speaks volumes about disaffection with Obama's performance.<br /><br />Don't see evidence that his drop in support among Dems is related to Clinton supporters. Obama has been a weak president, has not pursued many Democrat priorities, and has done little to address unemployment. With that record, he can't count on anybody's support.: smintheus ::https://www.blogger.com/profile/06280030649524520605noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-78310752188692106672011-07-08T14:39:46.389-05:002011-07-08T14:39:46.389-05:00But you didn't poll Ron Paul there even though...But you didn't poll Ron Paul there even though he got 16 % last primary before his popularity took off. And Ron Paul was born there and lived there until shortly after Rand was born -- and maintained ties there. And he polls much higher nationally than Santorum.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-44779009239857810042011-07-08T11:54:30.395-05:002011-07-08T11:54:30.395-05:00The head-to-head / party crosstabs have some inter...The head-to-head / party crosstabs have some interesting information. Obama gets about 50% of independents against all comers except Pawlenty and Romney; against them, he gets about 40, but all of that goes into the 'undecided' column rather than into any greater support for Romney or Pawlenty. It's rather the flip side of the Texas analysis from the other day - there are a lot of Democratic-leaning voters not committing yet, but unlikely to cross lines even if they don't declare themselves as actively partisans.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-83050853585855651922011-07-08T11:17:22.232-05:002011-07-08T11:17:22.232-05:00Actually there is not much change from your last P...Actually there is not much change from your last Penn State poll in April. Hard to see Penn State go GOP if the current GOP Gov is unpopular.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-88495435686554724832011-07-08T11:07:54.750-05:002011-07-08T11:07:54.750-05:00Please poll Ron Paul too. There's no reason h...Please poll Ron Paul too. There's no reason he should be the odd man out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-77835965371348426162011-07-08T10:56:58.155-05:002011-07-08T10:56:58.155-05:00The GOP is going to have to nominate Romney to hav...The GOP is going to have to nominate Romney to have a chance. <br /><br />What's so great is so many people on the right are doing everything they can do destroy that chance because they want a true Tea Party nut as their nominee.<br /><br />I also think that as badly as Bachmann does in general election polls now; she would do far worse when the actually election came around. She is an absolute nut and when people learn more about her, they will go running in the opposite direction.Jonny Vhttp://www.vimaxreview.comnoreply@blogger.com