tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post5671811105131852655..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Missouri Republican NumbersTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-88227457337818662542010-12-07T17:10:56.729-05:002010-12-07T17:10:56.729-05:00The problem Romney has with winning blue states is...The problem Romney has with winning blue states is that the Republican allocation formula rewards states that routinely vote for Republican presidential candidates and also rewards states with Republican representatives and Senators. Nearly half of the entire Republican congressional delegation comes from the South, meaning Huckabee would stand to win an extra several hundred delegates if he wins his base region, and that's before allocating extra delegates for a Republican history. Romney's strongest states have relatively few Republican representatives, senators, or governors, and mostly won't be getting bonus delegates for presidential elections.<br /><br />The delegate map is not the same as the electoral college map; both parties weight their decision process to account for a state's partisan bent.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82136738119894131992010-12-07T13:33:01.845-05:002010-12-07T13:33:01.845-05:00Sarah Steelman is not a popular among Missouri Rep...Sarah Steelman is not a popular among Missouri Republican Party regulars because she vocally opposed the earmarks and favoritism of Party favorites like Kenny Holshof. The Party's leadership has a built-in bias for Washington insiders like Talent, Holshof, and Blunt against the Tea Party candidates like Steelman and Purgason who are popular with the real Missouri voters.Chris Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12730570977897344874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-19794781575603399132010-12-07T10:36:20.168-05:002010-12-07T10:36:20.168-05:00"Romney is not any more formidable in the gen..."Romney is not any more formidable in the general election than Huckabee."<br /><br />Depends on the state. We haven't done polling in enough states yet to say definitively(and, of course, the campaign hasn't even begun yet, and things change). But in polling done so far, Huckabee is the most formidable in the South and rural states like Montana (though Romney doesn't do as badly as Palin or Gingrich, generally), and Romney in the North, Midwest, and West--basically the blue states and swing states where Obama won.<br /><br />"So, if Romney is doing well in states that went for Obama and poorly in states that went for McCain, then how many Republican convention delegates come from states Obama won and how many come from states McCain won?"<br /><br />Well, that question's easy to answer. Obama won so many populous states that his states would have far more delegates. But the other two questions: which states have proportional allocation and which winner-take-all? And, bigger than that: which candidates are even left to compete in most of these states? I think it'll come down to whoever wins Iowa and/or SC placing well enough in other states that Romney looks likely to win (NH, NV, maybe FL) to go toe-to-toe with him down the stretch, and then we'll see if Romney's lead in the blue states on Super Tuesday holds up, or if that more conservative challenger galvanizes and consolidates the opposition to Romney.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-87518360622774294002010-12-06T22:53:14.308-05:002010-12-06T22:53:14.308-05:00Is it really a primary problem for Romney? A Repub...Is it really a primary problem for Romney? A Republican convention delegate from a blue state counts the same as a delegate from a red state. All that matters is how many delegates you win, not where they come from.<br /><br />So, if Romney is doing well in states that went for Obama and poorly in states that went for McCain, then how many Republican convention delegates come from states Obama won and how many come from states McCain won? The answer to that question would tell us the significance of this post.Murdock Wallishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11040390228922939417noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6680895121979749202010-12-06T20:44:26.288-05:002010-12-06T20:44:26.288-05:00Romney is not any more formidable in the general e...Romney is not any more formidable in the general election than Huckabee. <br /><br />And Palin is a disaster in the general election.<br /><br />Like it or not, Huckabee is your strongest candidate all the way round.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com