tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6105138408376490775..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Dems poised for House gainsTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-43346542495486794512011-07-26T16:22:50.176-05:002011-07-26T16:22:50.176-05:00If anything, Rick Scott secures the Presidential e...If anything, Rick Scott secures the Presidential election for Obama. If not, then John Kasich.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-219902248299918922011-07-22T13:09:36.791-05:002011-07-22T13:09:36.791-05:00"I'd be interested in hearing the justifi..."I'd be interested in hearing the justification for using a 42D/33R/25I party split sample.<br /><br />In exit-polling for the 2008 election with record Democratic turnout, the split was 39/32/29."<br /><br />First, we don't weight for party, so it just falls where voters say they are at the time, and obviously it's self-identified, not related to registration. Second, +7 and +9 is essentially the same thing, especially when you consider the greater faultiness with exit polling (and different methodology) than with telephone polling; they don't do a true random sample, but rather cluster sampling, trying to get representative precincts and people.<br /><br />Third, this is not going to be 2010. The electorate will be much closer to 2008 in a presidential year. Midterms are always more Republican, but 2010 was unprecedentedly so in terms of the turnout shift and enthusiasm gap from one election to another. The electorate is really volatile right now.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-37409662553016800442011-07-21T23:20:11.459-05:002011-07-21T23:20:11.459-05:00I'd be interested in hearing the justification...I'd be interested in hearing the justification for using a 42D/33R/25I party split sample.<br /><br />In exit-polling for the 2008 election with record Democratic turnout, the split was 39/32/29. <br /><br />We all know what happened in 2010, and although it was an off-year election, the splits were far lower for Democrats.<br /><br />So these splits obviously aren't reflective of real-world electoral results.<br /><br />The latest polling on party registration shows a party split of 29/30/38 or 42/47 if you include leaners.<br /><br />So by any measure I can find, the split you're using *vastly* oversamples Democrats. Why do your samples skew so far from the "real world?"Jim Bhttp://www.polimerican.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-46461769337500670152011-07-21T20:49:27.863-05:002011-07-21T20:49:27.863-05:00Obama has already won reelection and it's not ...Obama has already won reelection and it's not based on silly polling.The 13 keys to the White House has picked the winner for the popular vote in every election. http://ww2.gazette.net/stories/05272011/policol193154_32542.phpAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82693307626345301902011-07-21T15:53:25.121-05:002011-07-21T15:53:25.121-05:00I'm relatively confident that Obama will win r...I'm relatively confident that Obama will win reelection (quite easily) and the Democrats will win back the House.<br /><br />I feel like if the Republicans nominate a true nut like Bachmann it could be a huge wave election. Her crazy would drip all over the rest of the GOP.I Am Iron Manhttp://www.thepresidentialcandidates.usnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74909071507651483702011-07-21T14:25:17.238-05:002011-07-21T14:25:17.238-05:00The election is more than a year so i think your O...The election is more than a year so i think your Obama polls are useless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-84898632646363765102011-07-21T12:34:54.566-05:002011-07-21T12:34:54.566-05:00A relatively small change in the generic ballot fo...A relatively small change in the generic ballot for the House ensures big House gains for Democrats. Hard Right Republicans in districts best described as D+5 to R+2 can lose seats in large numbers. All House seats will be up for election, and there is no getting around that. <br /><br />As for President Obama losing -- think of all the Governors having trouble during the budgetary processes. In hard times and polarized politics, few people are going to get what they want. Such is the President's difficulty in the polls right now. Mitt Romney can safely remain silent through this mess; President Obama can't. But gues who gets to run against an extremist Congress that achieves little? You guessed it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com