tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6120455343822625351..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama leads in ColoradoTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-45063505187620286302011-08-12T08:52:20.412-05:002011-08-12T08:52:20.412-05:00MidPointMan wrote:
"Every pollster is entitle...MidPointMan wrote:<br />"<i>Every pollster is entitled to their own weights</i>"<br /><br />PPP doesn't weight for Party ID. <br />They have been very clear about this. I don't know where you got the idea that they do.<br /><br />That partisan breakdown is the result from their random registered voter sample. It's not manipulated by weighting or filtered through a 'likely voter' screen. <br /><br />On at least some polls, PPP weights for age, race, and gender...but <i>not</i> for Party ID.Todd Dugdale https://www.blogger.com/profile/17584727904734922884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-73308717092332634452011-08-11T18:59:40.505-05:002011-08-11T18:59:40.505-05:00Typo...41% Democrat in the sample. In 2010 the nu...Typo...41% Democrat in the sample. In 2010 the number was 33%. In 2008 it was 30%.<br /><br />This suggests that in a general Presidential election, where more independents turn out that 30% would be near the high end of expectations.<br /><br />...but here is the real smoking gun. The PPP sample has 35% of the electorate defining themselves as Liberal. In 2010 the number was 21%. PPP is not far off on the Conservative number at 39% (vs. 40% in 2010).<br /><br />Their frame basically traded one-third of Moderates and made them Liberals.<br /><br />This is Fantasyland. <br /><br />The reality in Colorado is that Ken Buck (who lost by 2 points) beat Micheal Bennet by 16 points among independents, and he was a Tea Partier!<br /><br />Over half of Colorado independents are closet GOPers who consider themselves too Libertarian to claim allegiance to a party.<br /><br />PPP has distorted that reality badly in this poll, giving it the veneer of propaganda.<br /><br />Seriously, this is Busch League polling.MidPointManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17548317395412630882011-08-11T18:31:57.172-05:002011-08-11T18:31:57.172-05:00In what universe is 43% of the Colorado electorate...In what universe is 43% of the Colorado electorate Democrat? Are you serious?<br /><br />This is the most Busch League joke of a poll I have seen in awhile.<br /><br />Every pollster is entitled to their own weights, but to be credible they have to be based on some sort of reasonable theory of the electorate.<br /><br />Gallup currently has Colorado at R+1 in terms of voter registration (based on a much bigger sample) and the GOP typically turns out better than Democrats.<br /><br />PPP has always been a Democrat leaning polling firm, but since their affiliation with the political hate site "Daily Kos" their polling has become increasingly ludicrous.<br /><br />Democrats have never accounted for more than one-third of the electorate and independents in Colorado skew Republican historically (2008 is an outlier).<br /><br />The latest voter registration data makes this sample weighting all the more insane.<br /><br />...at least Rasmussen's sampling is within reason. This is just slop.MidPointManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-90148314178497835192011-08-11T18:16:21.154-05:002011-08-11T18:16:21.154-05:00Obama is clearly the least odious REPUBLICAN in th...Obama is clearly the least odious REPUBLICAN in the race.Leaves one to wonder how a Democrat might fare.outsidethetenthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13628399712124158003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-23051314205316143012011-08-11T16:24:55.867-05:002011-08-11T16:24:55.867-05:00Public Parody PollingPublic Parody PollingAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-83446615299984380252011-08-11T15:55:56.769-05:002011-08-11T15:55:56.769-05:00Hot Air| PPP: Obama leads in Colorado if Dems gain...Hot Air| PPP: Obama leads in Colorado if Dems gain nine points from 2008 turnout, or something<br />http://hotair.com/archives/2011/08/11/ppp-obama-leads-in-colorado-if-dems-gain-nine-points-from-2008-turnout-or-something/StewartIIIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08105722989678344715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74486706503913761262011-08-11T15:54:45.550-05:002011-08-11T15:54:45.550-05:00I thought you were a professional polling operatio...I thought you were a professional polling operation. You should be ashamed of yourselves for how bad this poll is in relation to the sample. Colorado is a very independent minded state which wouldn't become more Left than it was in 2008. This poll should be taken out back and shot. Point Blank.Aricnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17759543441000810972011-08-11T12:45:16.871-05:002011-08-11T12:45:16.871-05:00It's party ID, not party registration. We nev...It's party ID, not party registration. We never weight for party ID.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-22379011100093086992011-08-11T10:00:16.434-05:002011-08-11T10:00:16.434-05:00Party ID tends to fluctuate. It's not a stati...Party ID tends to fluctuate. It's not a static figure.<br /><br />Plus, if you look at some of PPP's polls prior to the 2010 election, and compare the party ID to the exit poll, even though PPP predicted the top line right, in some cases the Party ID was way off. So the point is not to worry too much about the cross tabs. The top line is likely right, though outliers do happen of course.sportsman885noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-37058384956135837832011-08-11T09:53:48.155-05:002011-08-11T09:53:48.155-05:00Someone has to make Obama look good. But yea most ...Someone has to make Obama look good. But yea most of their polls are to favorable for the democrats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-88801235763886806042011-08-10T18:57:31.497-05:002011-08-10T18:57:31.497-05:002008 Exit Polling:
Democrat: 30%
Republican: 31%
I...2008 Exit Polling:<br />Democrat: 30%<br />Republican: 31%<br />Independent: 39% <br />2010 Exit Polling:<br />Democrat: 33%<br />Republicans 28%<br />Independent 39%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-65352417791885297672011-08-10T18:32:05.670-05:002011-08-10T18:32:05.670-05:00Have you guys taken a look at voter registration i...Have you guys taken a look at voter registration in Colorado lately? The GOP has a 5 point advantage over Democrats and Independents, so why in the world is your voter screen D+8? <br /><br />In other words, this poll tells us very little at all.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com