tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6360447948009966557..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama leads...but also shows weaknessTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-59653149692695642772011-04-19T11:33:26.517-05:002011-04-19T11:33:26.517-05:00I'm quite impressed Obama is leading in Head t...I'm quite impressed Obama is leading in Head to head match ups even if only narrowly. 9% unemployment, 60%+ wrong track, gas prices having gone up a lot recently, and a lot of partisan fighting and worries about the deficit.<br /><br />Yet, he still outperforms leading Republicans. Astonishing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-59273628420201705952011-04-18T20:36:22.057-05:002011-04-18T20:36:22.057-05:00Dustin,
How are Obama's #'s looking thus ...Dustin,<br /><br />How are Obama's #'s looking thus far, in the poll coming out this week? Thanks, for the good work.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-53250345113512824512011-04-18T15:49:02.823-05:002011-04-18T15:49:02.823-05:00Based on our polls, Obama is stronger in FL and pa...Based on our polls, Obama is stronger in FL and particularly OH than he is in NC or PA (or against Romney in NH and NV).Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-81038202759043223182011-04-15T10:00:42.781-05:002011-04-15T10:00:42.781-05:00After analyzing a lot of recent polls and state ap...After analyzing a lot of recent polls and state approval ratings, I am going to take a guess on where I think Obama will win/lose next year:<br /><br />Obama will win:<br />NC<br />VA<br />PA<br />CO<br />NM<br />NV<br />NH<br /><br />Obama will lose:<br />FL<br />IN<br /><br />Toss Up:<br />OHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60056079313124762192011-04-14T13:42:08.850-05:002011-04-14T13:42:08.850-05:00I have been looking at some of the apporval rating...I have been looking at some of the apporval ratings in some states. The data are from Talking Points Memo.<br /><br />Florida: 4 polls, approval rating average 45.6.<br />Ohio: 2 polls, approval rating average 47.<br />Penn: 4 polls Approval rating 44% <br /><br />I am not done, but the average shift in approval from Obama's total in 2008 in state polling 92 -7.14.<br /><br />That is trouble for an incumbent. When you look into the internals, one key difference you continue to see is the age makeup of the electorate, which looks like the 2010 election and not 2008. The young as a % of the electorate are down by between 40 and 70%.flademnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-73083303506226693882011-04-14T12:40:41.055-05:002011-04-14T12:40:41.055-05:00No Donald Trump in the poll? You guys gotta start...No Donald Trump in the poll? You guys gotta start including him in your polls.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-11292580701960320092011-04-14T11:57:55.757-05:002011-04-14T11:57:55.757-05:00If you used 2008 vote or generic Congressional bal...If you used 2008 vote or generic Congressional ballot preference to allocate the undecideds you would get basically the same numbers as using the approval/disapproval question to allocate.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54136429710857784292011-04-14T11:56:30.999-05:002011-04-14T11:56:30.999-05:00Wouldn't it be better to look at who the peopl...Wouldn't it be better to look at who the people that disapprove of Obama voted for in the last election? What their demographics are? What their approval marks are for the Republican candidates?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-80952836771228617152011-04-14T11:55:17.037-05:002011-04-14T11:55:17.037-05:00I think it's a mistake to think that every sin...I think it's a mistake to think that every single person who is unhappy with Obama is going to vote GOP. Many of those people will vote for Obama anyway because the Republican candidate is scary or won't vote at all.I Am Iron Manhttp://www.thepresidentialcandidates.usnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-71653355815382664082011-04-14T11:46:07.523-05:002011-04-14T11:46:07.523-05:00According to the crosstabs, almost one-quarter of ...According to the crosstabs, almost one-quarter of self-described liberals view Palin and Gingrich favorably.<br /><br />There are three plausible explanations for these nonsensical results: <br /><br />• These people are lying to the pollster about their views on Palin and Gingrich<br />• These people are lying to the pollster about whether or not they're liberals<br />• These people are completely ignorant about who Palin and Gingrich are.<br /><br />Don Hammond<br />Ann ArborAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60952392590664579472011-04-14T11:36:12.023-05:002011-04-14T11:36:12.023-05:00Aren't you making a few unwarranted assumption...Aren't you making a few unwarranted assumptions here - such as that the remaining voters who 'disapprove' of Obama's performance so far are DEMOCRATS - and their disapproval is because Obama has not done enough on the Progressive side of things - but voters who will, in the end, vote Democratic in 2012?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13903902949220800787noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-86254750317089401262011-04-14T11:32:25.546-05:002011-04-14T11:32:25.546-05:00There is a large subset of independent, and often ...There is a large subset of independent, and often undecided, voters who you will have a hard time getting to say they "approve" of ANY politician. These are people who, in my research, often say both parties are equally corrupt, all politicians are liars, etc.<br /><br />So, it's really just not useful or even descriptive of reality to engage in an exercise where we assume that they will break for Obama vs his opponent based on their approval of Obama. In other words, taking Obama disapprovers and tallying then as GOP opponent approvers is useless and doesn't tell us anything about whether Obama's lead is stronger or weaker than straight up head-to-head numbers indicate.Ziegehttp://www.ziegegeist.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-35572054547486770222011-04-14T11:20:35.499-05:002011-04-14T11:20:35.499-05:00Thanks for including Rand Paul.
I see him as the ...Thanks for including Rand Paul. <br />I see him as the leader of the tea party movement in Washington and wondered how he would poll against Obama.Tom Lundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03463315327707576852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49579067648541782992011-04-14T11:00:24.583-05:002011-04-14T11:00:24.583-05:00This sort of shows that your last PA poll was like...This sort of shows that your last PA poll was likely out of whack. Obama can't win nationwide, even narrowly, and lose PA.<br /><br />Hell, Kerry won the state by 2 points while losing nationally.<br /><br />You guys go amazing polling, but that one poll seemed odd, and this seems to confirm it.Matt Dnoreply@blogger.com