tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6409614385071492603..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: More on Kennedy's SupportTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-13063697213841656932008-12-15T12:33:00.000-05:002008-12-15T12:33:00.000-05:00I don't think it's random error at all; I think it...I don't think it's random error at all; I think it's meaningful data, to a point. <BR/><BR/>Two issues here: the first, as Tom referred to down the page a ways, is that Kennedy and Cuomo ate the only two candidates with any name recognition whatsoever. You've got two universally known names (last names, at least) and a bunch of people barely known outside their geographically tiny power base. (Congressional districts in the NYC area are pretty small.) <BR/><BR/>The other issue is that Andrew Cuomo said some <A HREF="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/01/10/hillary-supporter-cuomo-_n_80914.html" REL="nofollow">stupid things</A> last January that got him tagged, fairly or otherwise, as a racist. I don't know if that's still top-of-mind for anyone, but it's probably at the very least a subconscious drag on his brand among black voters. (Before I posted this, I had a hunch there was something negative about him, and I had to google to find it; I suspect it's similar for a lot of people.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-51895788375845185242008-12-13T00:47:00.000-05:002008-12-13T00:47:00.000-05:00Oh, and already, 60% of African-Americans have Ken...Oh, and already, 60% of African-Americans have Kennedy as their first choice, 29% as their second.<BR/><BR/>I think this is probably just random error within subsamples.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-57214620141162405332008-12-13T00:46:00.000-05:002008-12-13T00:46:00.000-05:00The problem with that:Survey sample =957African-Am...The problem with that:<BR/><BR/>Survey sample =957<BR/>African-Americans=16% of sample<BR/>People 46-65: 43%<BR/><BR/>=> African-Americans born in that time period = ~66 people.<BR/><BR/>MOE: 12%, which is rather high to make any such judgments.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com