tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6652862607859693108..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Colorado MiscellaneousTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6918811829612017732011-08-17T12:58:45.913-05:002011-08-17T12:58:45.913-05:00A very interesting poll, one which I am sure will ...A very interesting poll, one which I am sure will be read with interest in CO.<br /><br />I would note that the poll shows extraordinary change on the issue of civil unions. CUs were the subject of a ballot proposal in 2006, separate from that year's referendum on marriage. Voters rejected CUs 53-47. To go from 47% support to 71% in 5 years is remarkable. Of course, you could argue that a mid-term electorate tends to be older and more Republican, so the 47% support level in 2006 possibly understated actual state-wide support. But whatever the "real" support level in 2006, it is clear that it wasn't anything close to 71%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54242411686235934572011-08-13T00:34:20.939-05:002011-08-13T00:34:20.939-05:00PPP powers that be might want to check out this di...PPP powers that be might want to check out <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/08/12/1006430/-An-Odd-Poll-for-San-Francisco-Mayor?via=siderecent" rel="nofollow">this diary on Daily Kos</a>jpmassarnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-84767777390253272782011-08-12T08:23:51.134-05:002011-08-12T08:23:51.134-05:00None of these results are valid because PPP oversa...None of these results are valid because PPP oversampled Liberals (35% of the sample) and undersampled Moderates (27% of the sample). In a typical election, Liberals make up 20-21% of the electorate in Colorado and Moderates make up 39-40%. Moderates tend to split votes more evenly in Colorado than in other states.<br /><br />The result is that this poll adds about 5-6 points tomthe Democrats, creating a total swing of 10-12 points.<br /><br />Knock 10 points off of every D-R spread to get a real sense of what Colorado looks like.MidPointManhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13126418421444294086noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-77050533608031872011-08-12T07:55:08.379-05:002011-08-12T07:55:08.379-05:00When will you release the Vermont President number...When will you release the Vermont President numbers ?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-15435471783166801932011-08-11T23:04:27.309-05:002011-08-11T23:04:27.309-05:00@Anonymous:
The shift is that 56% voted against s...@Anonymous:<br /><br />The shift is that 56% voted against same-sex marriage, but now only 45% oppose it. That's a big shift.<br /><br />And frankly to assert that there isn't even a hint that public opinion has changed is just ridiculous. If you look at recent PPP surveys from states like Oregon (vote was 43/57 against gay marriage in 2004, now it's 48/42 in favor), Nevada (33/67 against gay marriage in 2002, now it's 45/44 in favor), Michigan (41/59 against all legal recognition in 2004, now it's 62/29 in favor), the list goes on — it is clear that public opinion has changed drastically recently. You're ignoring facts to claim otherwise.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-442914331833990702011-08-11T19:58:40.192-05:002011-08-11T19:58:40.192-05:00What shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage?...What shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage? The proportion of people that opposed the constitutional amendment (44%) & now support same-sex marriage (45%) is the SAME.<br /><br />All you're seeing is a Bradley effect where the lefty media has scared people out of saying they support traditional marriage for fear of being labeled a "homophobe".<br /><br />Despite years of promises from lefty activists, there still isn't a hint of the supposed shift in opinion on marriage. EVERY time Americans have voted on the issue, we've voted to retain traditional marriage.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60023213327880137032011-08-11T18:25:08.935-05:002011-08-11T18:25:08.935-05:00Wow! I never would have thought Nevada would be so...Wow! I never would have thought Nevada would be so alone on prostitution. Thanks for asking that question. <br /><br />I wonder what Washington state thinks of prostitution. I've always thought they were rather leftly-libertarian. After all, marijuanana legalization polls best in the country there, and they have quite an anti-tax attitude for a solid Dem state.<br /><br />Anyway, thanks again for asking. These unexpected policy questions are what make PPP polls so interesting.Mark B.noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75941331269850871702011-08-11T18:07:33.428-05:002011-08-11T18:07:33.428-05:00Anonymous wrote:
"You have totally changed th...Anonymous wrote:<br />"<i>You have totally changed the sampling from a Democratic wave election</i>"<br /><br />I think you are talking about <i>weighting</i> the sample - or are you trying to say that the exact same people from the 2008 election were sampled? Either way, you're mistaken. <br /><br />If you would look at the poll release, you will find no mention of partisan weighting of the sample.<br /><br />That's because there <i>is no partisan weighting of the sample</i>. It's not weighted to a 'wave election'. It's not weighted <i>at all</i>. <br /><br />IOW, the partisan breakdown shown in the results is what 510 Colorado registered voters self-identified as.<br /><br />"<i>what a joke!</i>"<br /><br />The 'joke' is that you seem to think you know all about polling simply because you read the word "sampling" somewhere. <br /><br />Not every pollster does things exactly the way that Rasmussen does, especially at this stage of the election cycle.Todd Dugdale https://www.blogger.com/profile/17584727904734922884noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-23554947051546842062011-08-11T16:36:30.399-05:002011-08-11T16:36:30.399-05:00Where's your integrity? You have totally chan...Where's your integrity? You have totally changed the sampling from a Democratic wave election...what a joke!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60035658989682517502011-08-11T16:24:43.641-05:002011-08-11T16:24:43.641-05:00Lots of interesting results here, especially regar...Lots of interesting results here, especially regarding Hickenlooper, Bennet, gay marriage, and marijuana legalization. Thanks so much for polling those!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-2260021392476838522011-08-11T16:19:59.381-05:002011-08-11T16:19:59.381-05:00tom Tancredo has been out of the spotlight for a w...tom Tancredo has been out of the spotlight for a while. Perhaps, CO voters are trying to forgot him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-12893176669964292112011-08-11T15:26:50.438-05:002011-08-11T15:26:50.438-05:00Find out why more and more cops, judges, and prose...Find out why more and more cops, judges, and prosecutors who have fought on the front lines of the "war on drugs" are standing up and saying we need to legalize and regulate marijuana to help solve our economic, crime, and public health problems: http://www.CopsSayLegalizeDrugs.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com