tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6700703844116387447..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: The Price of the Tea PartyTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-39520776140526594292010-11-08T11:53:54.367-05:002010-11-08T11:53:54.367-05:00"You guys should poll Catherine Cortez Masto ..."You guys should poll Catherine Cortez Masto against John Ensign in 2012."<br /><br />We already did several months ago, and she wasn't doing that well.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-73673997380532005772010-11-07T19:18:05.702-05:002010-11-07T19:18:05.702-05:00Tom, more great analysis. Thanks for a great elec...Tom, more great analysis. Thanks for a great election cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-18328336336647103062010-11-07T16:55:24.689-05:002010-11-07T16:55:24.689-05:00Poll Masto, Wallin, and Marshall against Ensign in...Poll Masto, Wallin, and Marshall against Ensign in 2012. They are all popular female elected Democratic statewide officials who were re-elected comfortably this year.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56897550120186176772010-11-07T16:54:02.780-05:002010-11-07T16:54:02.780-05:00You guys should poll Catherine Cortez Masto agains...You guys should poll Catherine Cortez Masto against John Ensign in 2012.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11005892034238079684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-25389189251271088122010-11-06T15:29:40.870-05:002010-11-06T15:29:40.870-05:00Sorry PPP, you are engaging in Monday morning quar...Sorry PPP, you are engaging in Monday morning quarterbacking and comparing apples to oranges on this one.<br /><br />You can't compare Tark Jr.'s polling to Angle's at this stage. If Tark Jr. had won and been smeared with $25 million of negative ads, he probably would have done as poorly as Angle. He was relatively untouched in the primary, hence his current positive favorability.<br /><br />What caused the defeat of Angle and Buck is that there was a big surge of Dem. support in the last week of the election in Blue and Purple states that the pollsters didn't pick up. It wouldn't have mattered if an Establishment Republican was the candidate, they still would have lost. Look at how badly Establishment candidates like Whitman and Fiorina did in California. They both underperformed the final polls by about 5 or 6 points because of this Dem. surge. The same with Rossi in Washington State who is likely to lose by 5 or 6 points when all the votes are counted. In fact, Washington State provides empirical evidence of this surge. Even in Republican counties, Rossi is winning by a much smaller margin in the votes counted in the last two days (which were mailed in on Monday and Tuesday) versus his margin with the votes counted on election night (which were mailed in two weeks earlier).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-69140382371169179052010-11-06T08:38:37.754-05:002010-11-06T08:38:37.754-05:00Never too early for '12...
You guys should po...Never too early for '12...<br /><br />You guys should poll Nebraska, Nelson v. Bruning. Throw in a Prez poll of Obama v. Palin, Gingrich, Romney, Huckabee while you're at it!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-28035224748613425632010-11-05T20:10:00.712-05:002010-11-05T20:10:00.712-05:00Tom - You are way off base. The Tea Party Express...Tom - You are way off base. The Tea Party Express did this. Eight weeks prior to the primary was polling at 5%, was vitually unknown and had $40,000 in funds. On April 15 the TPX chose to endorse Angle. In May the Club for Grouwth did as well. The TPX endorsement was 7 1/2 weeks before the primary. At that point the two groups dropped $1.6M into the campaign outspending the other campaigns total numbers over the year. Where Tarkanian and Lowden were forced to campaign for 12 months and have flaws brought out by the time Angle's campaign started taking hold (5 weeks out) it was too late for her to go through the scrutiny as the others had. The TPX only portayed Angles "good" points. Her bad things were not brought out. That is until she was the only candidate going against Reid. He brought out many of the things some conservatives in Nevada already knew. The fact is Reid had a 37% approval rating. Any campaign should have been able to destroy him. Angle failed and failed miserably.<br />Bob HastingsAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-70528202511520803202010-11-05T18:03:09.208-05:002010-11-05T18:03:09.208-05:00Mark Downe:
"Angle, on the other hand, made f...Mark Downe:<br />"Angle, on the other hand, made few, if any mistakes."<br /><br />Evidently she saved all her gaffes for the general election campaign.The Interesting Timesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79303156620226873622010-11-05T16:14:31.460-05:002010-11-05T16:14:31.460-05:00I'm fine with Buck losing to Bennet. Norton wa...I'm fine with Buck losing to Bennet. Norton was a typical, run of the mill Republican while Ken Buck actually had some small government views, although not as many as would be preferable.<br /><br />In Nevada, the analysis is spot-on, and Tarkanian was about the same in comparison to Angle on a view-by-view comparison.<br /><br />To PPP: I understand you are giving an analysis of what an increased likelihood of Republican victory would have looked like, and that's great. You are well within your right given the accuracy of your polls this cycle, especially in comparison to Rasmussen. <br /><br />However, I would MUCH rather a legit small government Republican lose than a big government, John Boehner clone win. Who cares about winning if the candidate stands for nothing? <br /><br />To put this into perspective, the Democrats don't want 200 Sen. Ben Nelsons in the House, even though he's a Democrat. Same with Republicans, we don't want John Boehners, we want Rand Pauls and Mike Lees who actually stand for something.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-36378348867388343622010-11-05T12:44:30.825-05:002010-11-05T12:44:30.825-05:00Tom,
Tea party helped to sweep so many local elec...Tom,<br /><br />Tea party helped to sweep so many local elections. It brought out so much energy in so many state and house elections. Loosing 3 or 4 seats in senate is not going to make a big impact. Harry Reid had so much ground game and money, there is no way, the election would have been easy for republicans.Ranjitnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-59477291913650457492010-11-05T11:55:43.674-05:002010-11-05T11:55:43.674-05:00Living life in a vacuum is easier than reality. H...Living life in a vacuum is easier than reality. Harry Reid did not Spend $20 million bashing Tarkanian the past few months.<br /><br />Poor "science", poor "reporting".Brian O'Connorhttp://reddogreport.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-50446589154679046742010-11-05T11:24:09.743-05:002010-11-05T11:24:09.743-05:00Tom,
You are vastly over-simplifying Sharron Ang...Tom, <br /><br />You are vastly over-simplifying Sharron Angle's loss in Nevada, or perhaps more accurately the tea party's roll in getting her nominated. <br /><br />I live in Nevada. I lived the primary. Sharron Angle didn't so much win the primary as Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian lost it. They ran poor, mistake-ridden campaigns. They practically begged the voters to reject them, and the voters obliged. Angle, on the other hand, made few, if any mistakes.<br /><br />Yes, the tea party did indeed help Sharron Angle get nominated, but that is all they did -- help. All their efforts would have been for naught if Lowden and Tarkanian hadn't self-destructed leaving the field wide open for Angle to win.Mark Downenoreply@blogger.com