tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post839870734144385756..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama up big on Pawlenty, PalinTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-40352750549893281632009-07-11T10:18:38.226-05:002009-07-11T10:18:38.226-05:00This poll reflects more on Pawlenty than on Obama....This poll reflects more on Pawlenty than on Obama.<br /><br />First, let’s put this into historical perspective. Pawlenty won twice with less than 50% by doing what Norm Coleman failed to do in his Senate race. In Minnesota, the Independence Party offers candidates thus dissatisfied Republicans and Democrats voters have an alternative. The key is to minimize the number of Republicans that you lose … Pawlenty has succeeded while Coleman failed. Look at the 2008 Senate race, the IP candidate former-Senator Dean Barkley attacked Coleman on fiscal conservative issues. In a typical Senate race, the IP candidate gets less than 80,000 votes … this time 437,505 … in fact, if you compare McCain’s presidential votes to Coleman, than 63,209 McCain supporters did not want Coleman to get another term. Congresswoman Bachmann has also benefited from IP challengers. <br /><br />This poll is not a gubernatorial poll … it’s either Obama or Pawlenty … no Independent candidate. <br /><br />Actually, Pawlenty’s numbers are really bad. <br />If you consider that Palin’s 35% is the baseline, then Pawlenty got very little “Favorite Son” bounce. And if Palin hadn’t announced her resignation, her numbers would have been higher … getting only 70% Favorable rating from Conservatives would have been much higher if the poll was taken a month ago.<br />Look at the Conservative’s who gave Pawlenty a 76 % favorable rating. MN-GOPers did not like RINO Coleman and had no problem throwing him under the bus … Pawlenty is not a favorite either … remember Pawlenty could not get McCain the win in the February caucuses (Romney virtually doubled McCain’s vote total). Pawlenty also has to fight the Ron Paul segment of the party which is quite active in Minnesota.<br /><br />What the poll does show is that Pawlenty was smart not to seek a third term … as all incumbent Governors are finding out, voters are angry. Compound that with Pawlenty’s “unallotment” strategy for the next fiscal budget, suggests that he would have had a very difficult re-election campaign.<br /><br />It's a fair poll.Minnesota Centralhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02462056292830437795noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-44603113426518521872009-07-10T22:28:22.118-05:002009-07-10T22:28:22.118-05:00Anonymous, I'm not sure what "stunning&qu...Anonymous, I'm not sure what "stunning" popularity drop you're referring to, but for a president who has moved an agenda as ambitious as Obama, for him to still be sitting at a health 58% on gallup is an approval rating any president would kill for after the huge legislative fights that have occurred and are occurring every day.<br /><br />While Minnesota is a relatively safe democratic state, it had been thought that the state was drifting rightward in the last few election cycles. For the man who was elected twice to the governorship of this state to be trailing Obama this precipitously speaks volumes about the Republican inability to open up the electoral map. If you're indeed blocked off from the entire upper midwest and are beginning to give up on the rustbelt, how will the republican party defend the south? And even there, their numbers drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-7989877071760440252009-07-10T19:36:17.630-05:002009-07-10T19:36:17.630-05:00Sorry, but this poll smells like a democrat pollin...Sorry, but this poll smells like a democrat polling firm trying to gin up some positive numbers for a president whose popularity is falling quite stunningly. For the Obama supporter who is willing to see this poll for what it is, it should be cause for great concern as it smacks of democratic desperation. What's next, high fives all around for a poll showing Obama leads in Illinois?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-62177561287558371042009-07-10T13:56:17.863-05:002009-07-10T13:56:17.863-05:00Among moderates Pawlenty is 68/17 and Palin is 62/...Among moderates Pawlenty is 68/17 and Palin is 62/27. Among conservatives Pawlenty is 83/11 and Palin is 84/9.Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-78349934745580422402009-07-10T12:56:07.373-05:002009-07-10T12:56:07.373-05:00Tom,
What were Palin and Pawlenty's respectiv...Tom,<br /><br />What were Palin and Pawlenty's respective favorables/unfavorables with moderate and conservative Republicans?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-38691567010964960842009-07-10T12:07:56.238-05:002009-07-10T12:07:56.238-05:0073% conservative, 25% moderate73% conservative, 25% moderateTom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-18116387412297769632009-07-10T12:06:50.647-05:002009-07-10T12:06:50.647-05:00Jensen,
What percentage of the Minnesota Republic...Jensen,<br /><br />What percentage of the Minnesota Republican electorate was moderate compared to conservative?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com