tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post9126179899736763168..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Boxer up 9Tom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-39376046179934587452010-10-26T16:42:39.138-05:002010-10-26T16:42:39.138-05:00"It's been the story of all three of her ..."It's been the story of all three of her reelection runs: Barbara Boxer always looks vulnerable early in the cycle and then pulls away and wins easily in the end."<br /><br />Isn't this meaningless since you've always had Boxer up by 8-9 points? In order to pull away I would think that she would have to actually improve her margin of victory by more than the margin of error.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-91846723512523937392010-10-26T16:22:28.267-05:002010-10-26T16:22:28.267-05:00Dems can start to breath a little easier about CA....Dems can start to breath a little easier about CA. It seems that the Northeast and Pacific West will be the Democrats best regions in this election. Connecticut, Maryland (Gov), Delaware, New York, maybe Pennsylvania (still tight as another poll shows the race neck and neck today),Massachusetts governor is stabilizing for Patrick, and then Oregon, Washington and California on the Pacific Coast. The ? is how bad will the rest of the country be for the Dems? Can they pull out CO, WVA and NV?Chuck Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-29887103263823651762010-10-26T15:10:01.530-05:002010-10-26T15:10:01.530-05:00This is a great poll for Fiorina. Your poll shows ...This is a great poll for Fiorina. Your poll shows that 26% of this year's voters have already voted and they favor Boxer by only 48%-46%. That's a significant amount of voters, so the 2 point difference is very meaningful. <br /><br />You have a 47% Democratic electorate and a 13 point differential. Dems were 40%, 41%, and 42% in 2004, 2006, and 2008. The differential was 7%, 6%, and 12%. Once again your electorate is way more Democratic than even California can produce. <br /><br />Extrapolating your voting numbers to the already voted they appear to be something like 40% Democratic 33% Republican 27% independent, the 2004 electorate. If Fiorina gets either the 2004 or 2006 electorate and wins independents by 17 points, it's a toss up.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11928675187803337574noreply@blogger.com