Saturday, October 11, 2008

Obama lead in Colorado hits double digits

Barack Obama 52
John McCain 42

With the Hispanic vote unifying behind him, Barack Obama is out to his largest lead yet in a PPP poll of Colorado.

Obama is now leading 71-21 with that group of voters, a considerable improvement from a 57-36 edge in PPP's survey of the state taken three weeks ago. The white vote is exactly the same as it was previously, a 48-47 advantage for Obama. Obama's margin has increased by three points since that poll, which showed him with a 51-44 advantage in the state.

The economy may be helping to drive Obama's gains. Three weeks ago 51% of voters in the state listed it as their biggest concern. That number has now spiked up to 60%. Among those folks Obama's lead is 60-34.

Colorado also provides a clear example of how Sarah Palin's popularity across the country continues to fall. Right after the GOP convention her favorability was 41/38. Three weeks later it was 38/47. Now it's dropped to 36/49.

The numbers paint a picture that shows it nearly impossible for McCain to win the state at this point. Only 6% of voters are undecided, and among those who do have a preference currently only 6% say there's any chance they could change their mind. Obama's lead at this point is such that McCain would have to win virtually every undecided, keep everyone who could change their mind currently supporting him in his camp, and win over almost 100% of current Obama supporters who say they aren't totally committed to him. The chances of all those things happening? Not very good.

Full results here.


Anonymous said...


Sreenu said...

As per the voter registration statistics (Sept 2008) available from the State of Colorodo the party ID is 32.1%D, 33.7%R, 33.7%I and 0.5%Others.

The party ID chosen by you for this poll is 41%D, 37%R and 22%I.

This discrepancy in party ID chosen on this poll should not affect end result much because Obama and McCain get pretty much the same support from their respective parties and Obama leads by 21% among the independents.

However I would be interested in knowing the reason for choosing a vastly different party ID for this poll than what is reflected from the voter registration statistics.

Tom Jensen said...

We don't 'choose' any party breakdown. We just weight for fixed demographics- race, gender, and age- and let the party breakdown fall wherever it falls. My guess is that in this Democratic year there are a number of Coloradoans registered as Republicans who are not identifying as such.

Sreenu said...

Thanks for clarification Tom :-)

Anonymous said...

Those numbers in Colorado are right on.

Arapahoe County one of the most conservative counties in the Denver metro area. Democrats out registered Republicans for the first time ever.

Colorado will be blue.

Anonymous said...

srinivas you misunderstand PPPs numbers. PPP did not SELECT the party id breakdown. They called people and asked them what party that were. Oftentimes people give a different party id to pollsters than what is listed on their voter registration. There are two reasons for this: (1) people have changed in their own minds what party they believe is most in sync with them but never bother to change their voter registration, and (2) their is the bandwagon effect, voters as an election get closer start identifying themselves to pollsters as belonging to the party they think is going to win in an election. Reliance soley on voter registration numbers can cause people to misinterpret polls or wrongfully discount them because they think the party id is too out of sync with actual registration. Finally, if you notice PPPs party id for its CO poll showed both Dems and Reps outperforming their share of the registered electorate, this happens nearly all the time in elections.

Sreenu said...

@anonymous, actually they almost out-registered them :-)

328,940(Total Voters)

But still it a big achievement from where it stood in 2004.
108,987 (D)
136,870 (R)
125,755 (UA)
372,631 (Total Voters)

Anonymous said...

The numbers probably haven't been updated.

Sreenu said...

@anonymous, thanks for the explanation. I see the point in what you are saying. I completely agree (1) is possible but wonder about (2) scenario. What if people tell the pollsters that they belong to the likely winner but end up voting their party ID, would it not affect the accuracy of the poll? Is there a way to include the registration data along with demographics while weighting the raw polling data?

Sreenu said...

I got the numbers from here -

They are dated September'30 2008.

Anonymous said...

srinivas the numbers you quote from Arapahoe county are from the end of September. The voter registration deadline in CO was not until Oct. 6, meaning there was almost a weeks worth of information not included in the secretary of state's release of registration information you quoted. Given that the difference was only around 1,000, it is conceivable that anon is right and that Dems passed Reps in terms of registration in Arapahoe county for the first time.

Anonymous said...


you guys need to do more polls


Anonymous said...

So why not weight by party id also? Just curious.

Cugel said...

There are all kinds of arguments for and against weighting by party ID. Rasmussen does, and uses a "likely voter screen" as well. SurveyUSA and PPP don't.

If you DO weight by party ID you have to decide what it should be. You can't just go by registration numbers, even in states which HAVE such data (many don't register by party so there's no way to know).

People who are registered as "Republican" may self-identify as Democrats or vice-versa. What counts in elections is not what's written on a reigstrar's list, but what people think inside their heads, ignoring peer or family pressure, reasons for registering one way or another.

Rasmussen polls for their party ID every week, but even that is subject to error.

NOT weighting by party ID leaves you subject to just getting a bad sample that has too many Republicans or Democrats in it. But, weighting for party ID means you're second-guessing what percentage of voters really identify as Democrats say.

And we know that changes even over the course of a campaign! In 2000 Democratic party ID was around 39%, a few percent higher than Republicans. Then after 9-11 it went down, in 2004 Republican ID hit a low of around 34% and then increased to tie Democrats at 37% around election time (all according to Rasmussen).

So, you introduce an error factor, no matter which way you go. Either approach has validity and advantages as well as disadvantages. It's best to look at an average of all the polls like does.

Anonymous said...

runescape money runescape gold runescape money buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape money runescape gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft Power Leveling Warcraft PowerLeveling buy runescape gold buy runescape money runescape itemsrunescape accounts runescape gp dofus kamas buy dofus kamas Guild Wars Gold buy Guild Wars Gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold lotro gold buy lotro gold runescape money runescape power leveling runescape money runescape gold dofus kamas cheap runescape money cheap runescape gold Hellgate Palladium Hellgate London Palladium Hellgate money Tabula Rasa gold tabula rasa money Tabula Rasa Credit Tabula Rasa Credits Hellgate gold Hellgate London gold wow power leveling wow powerleveling Warcraft PowerLeveling Warcraft Power Leveling World of Warcraft PowerLeveling World of Warcraft Power Leveling runescape power leveling runescape powerleveling eve isk eve online isk eve isk eve online isk tibia gold Fiesta Silver Fiesta Gold
Age of Conan Gold
buy Age of Conan Gold
aoc gold

china tour
beijing tour
beijing travel
china tour
tibet tour
tibet travel
computer monitoring software
employee monitoring

Anonymous said...

wholesale jewelry
wholesale handmade jewelry
wholesale fashion jewelry
wholesale costume jewelry
handmade jewelry
fashion jewelry
costume jewelry
jewelry wholesale
wholesale pearl
wholesale crystal
discount jewelry
cheap wholesale
china jewelry wholesaler
wholesale china jewelry
handcrafted jewelry
wholesale jewellery
wholesale turquoise
wholesale swarovski
wholesale gemstone
wholesale coral
wholesale shell

Anonymous said...

探偵 脱毛 結婚相談所 大阪 お見合いパーティー 大阪 貸事務所 大阪 愛知県 葬儀 探偵 独立 離婚 問題 探偵 東京 興信所 東京 浮気 慰謝料 興信所 料金 素行調査 不動産 買取 広島市 インプラント 賃貸 東京 ケータリング 平野区 賃貸 新築 静岡 不動産 賃貸 マンション 売買 土地 売却 札幌 不動産 横浜 不動産 千葉 不動産 岡山 不動産 土地 査定 青森不動産北海道不動産岩手不動産宮城不動産秋田不動産山形不動産福島不動産群馬不動産栃木不動産茨城不動産山梨不動産新潟不動産

Anonymous said...

インプラント 不動産投資 システム開発 探偵 興信所 離婚 浮気 興信所 エステ 結婚相談所 お見合いパーティー 結婚 仲介 結婚相談所 東京 高級賃貸 パーティー 東京 インプラント 矯正歯科 名古屋 大阪 貸事務所 家族葬 名古屋 本庄市 不動産 平野区 不動産 静岡 不動産 新築マンション インプラント 広島 マンション 売却 不動産 査定 不動産 売買 土地 買取 ホームページ制作 長野不動産富山不動産石川不動産福井不動産愛知不動産岐阜不動産三重不動産兵庫不動産滋賀不動産奈良不動産和歌山不動産鳥取不動産島根不動産山口不動産徳島不動産香川不動産愛媛不動産高知不動産佐賀不動産長崎不動産大分不動産宮崎不動産沖縄不動産 

Anonymous said...

xbox 360 converter, xbox 360 hd converter, xbox 360 converter software, xbox 360 video converter, xbox 360 video hd converter, xbox 360 video converter software, xbox converter, xbox hd converter, xbox converter software, xbox video converter, xbox hd video converter, xbox video converter software

Anonymous said...

Tibet Travel Dot Info offers first-hand and up-to-date tibet travel information - tours, maps, climate, transportation, accommodation, travel tips,We are offering tibet tour in great discount,Tibet tours by local Tibet travel agency - Access Tibet Tour help you travel to tibet with ease, with tibet tour guide, Tibet Adventure Travel packages!U-Way is a new travel company Specilized in china tibet tours, furnish cheap tibet tours in 2009, if you wanna travel to tibet, please believe in u-waytours, let we work-team service for you.. We are provide tibet trekking routes,Tibet travel permit and overall service of travelling to Tibet
As we know,wow gold guide and on our website.Free gold guide We have available stock of gold on most of the servers

Anonymous said...

青島 温泉

Anonymous said...

Do you know seal cegel? I like it.
My brother often go to the internet bar to buy sealonline cegel and play it.
After school, He likes playing games using these seal online cegel with his friends.
I do not like to play it. Because I think that it not only costs much money but also spend much time. One day, he give me many cheap seal cegeland play the game with me.
I came to the bar following him and found buy seal online cegelwas so cheap. After that, I also go to play game with him.

Anonymous said...

The Little Men cheap wow gold came back to the World Of Warcraft Gold hut. When they saw that Snow-white was world of warcraft dead, the poor
mygamestockLittle Men cried.

Then they put wow gold cheap Snow-white in a box Cheapest Wow Gold made of glass. They took the glass box to a hill Wow Goldand put it there, and said, "Everyone who goes tbcgold by will see how beautiful she was." Then each mmorpgvip Little Man put one white flower on the box, and wow gold for sale they went away.

Cheap Wow Gold
wow gold
buy warhammer gold.

Anonymous said...





葬儀 千葉










ショッピング枠 現金化

クレジットカード 現金化

クレジットカード 現金化

Anonymous said...

wholesale jewelryhandmade jewelryjewelry wholesalecostume jewelrywholesale costume jewelry wholesale fashion jewelrywholesale pearlwholesale crystaldiscount jewelrycheap jewelrywholesale gemstonewholesale swarovski crystalwholesale shellwholesale coralwholesale turquoisechina jewelry wholesalerwholesale china jewelrywholesale handmade jewelryhandcrafted jewelrywholesale jewelleryfashion jewelry

Anonymous said...

SEO まだわかりません。 着サイト情報は SEO対策で サイトの問題点を比較・分析、効果的なSEO対策を行って、またはseoツールにご利用下さい、このサイト検索エンジンの地位があります。

Anonymous said...


Web Statistics