tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post1436031588038556491..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama in perilous shapeTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger58125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-22612282721464831862011-07-26T11:11:10.997-05:002011-07-26T11:11:10.997-05:00How the hell did you poll Cain, Pawlenty and someo...How the hell did you poll Cain, Pawlenty and someone who isn't even running over Ron Paul who poll's higher and raises more money than those candidates? <br /><br />You don't want the GOP to have an appealing option, we get it but look past partisanship -- Ron Paul is the choice of Independents.Doctor Joneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01851233434887411535noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-90017634978586691672011-07-24T01:31:55.240-05:002011-07-24T01:31:55.240-05:00That's a pretty big assumption, allocating the...That's a pretty big assumption, allocating the undecideds purely on their Obama approve/disapprove. His head-to-heads consistently run above his approvals, once he's put up against an actual Repuglican. It'd be interesting to see the crosstab of Obama/X undecided voters with their approval ratings of each candidate X. Given how far down their approval ratings are, you could make the argument the other way and point out that if you allocate the undecideds on their approval rating of the Republican candidates, Obama's lead grows dramatically and turns into blowout after blowout after blowout.<br /><br />Also, hopefully the Paultards will fall apart after 2012, when their cult leader is out of Congress and once again lost by humiliating margins in the primary.NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-73325972108139795652011-07-23T20:04:28.315-05:002011-07-23T20:04:28.315-05:00Green Room/Hot Air: ABC News cheerleading for Obam...Green Room/Hot Air: ABC News cheerleading for Obama more than Daily Kos pollster<br />http://hotair.com/archives/2011/07/23/abc-news-cheerleading-for-obama-more-than-daily-kos-pollster/StewartIIIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08105722989678344715noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-33304694747871353412011-07-22T16:13:57.927-05:002011-07-22T16:13:57.927-05:00If we don't show Ron Paul in our polls, then m...If we don't show Ron Paul in our polls, then maybe the public will forget he's even a candidate! Forget that he consistently polls in the top 3 or 4 candidates, or that his popularity is surging in Iowa and he looks to be in great shape to win the Ames straw poll.<br /><br />Yuck. Let's hope that, starting soon, any polling company that purposefully omits Ron Paul's candidacy loses ALL credibility.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49577874159279145962011-07-22T14:46:35.247-05:002011-07-22T14:46:35.247-05:00"Jim B said...
1) To the PaulBots who ke..."Jim B said...<br /><br /> 1) To the PaulBots who keep posting: just stop. He's not going to win the Republican nomination. He has no prayer of winning the nomination. He isn't polling any higher for the 2012 election than he polled for the 2008, and we all know how that turned out."<br /><br />Well I am sorry you feel other people are robots, especially those that have researched their candidate and understand why they are for them. But by your analogy, John McCain should be the nominee since he won last time. Or maybe you believe Romney will fall back quickly as last time. Or maybe people have realized that Ron Paul was right and the economic crisis he warned of while so many laughed at him is upon us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-25951508183653474382011-07-22T13:28:32.172-05:002011-07-22T13:28:32.172-05:00"I'm trying to reconcile your insistence ..."I'm trying to reconcile your insistence that somehow if he loses Pennsylvania then he still has 315 electoral votes when you and I both know that's the farthest thing from the truth possible."<br /><br />It's simple math and estimation without looking exactly at the shifts of EVs due to the census. If he loses the states I listed (not including VA, since he's still ahead there, last we polled), he'd have somewhere under 320 EVs. We can't poll in IN, so if you take that away too, that's still around 305-310 EVs. The GOP nominee would still have to win at least 35 EVs from states where Obama is still in the lead even against Romney, some combination of CO, VA, OH, FL, IA. VA and FL or OH would do it.<br /><br />"Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. If it goes Republican, then Obama is facing a Bush/Dukakis style blowout."<br /><br />That doesn't logically follow at all. We haven't polled OH since May, and he was up on Romney by 4. But we've found him consistently on edge, essentially tied, with first Huckabee and now Romney in PA. It's a different state with different voters. It's just as tough now as NC, which is becoming bluer as the years pass, as more voters from states like PA, OH, NY, etc., move in. The turf is changing. It's not 1988 anymore. It's 2011, in case you weren't aware. Obama has made legitimate inroads into the Southeast and Southwest, as have Democrats generally.<br /><br />"What a stupid f****** pollster. Uses Blogger and is clearly a neoconservative who just uses this as a way to push his politically hackery."<br /><br />That's funny. We're a Democratic pollster, and most of our criticism comes from the right. But just shows that when you get the numbers right, someone's gonna be upset.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60314130571955336302011-07-22T11:10:55.280-05:002011-07-22T11:10:55.280-05:00Dustin: "Pawlenty now does...barely, but we s...Dustin: "Pawlenty now does...barely, but we started including him because he was <b>briefly</b> polling in the double digits. Paul <i>hasn't ever</i> done that nationally."<br /><br /><br />Oother guy: "Actually, the Washington Post/ABC poll that's just been released shows Ron Paul garnering 10-11% nationally"<br /><br /><br />Dustin: "We go by our own polls."<br /><br />Read: "We're not just polling, we're pushing politics and our agenda."<br /><br />We're you REALLY interested in the truth you'd have polled between Paul and Obama. Alas Ron Paul typically does better in those match ups than anyone else. Ignore the man behind the curtain, these are not the driods you are looking for.Jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04387929627837348391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-90730057640495730022011-07-22T11:04:32.809-05:002011-07-22T11:04:32.809-05:00Democrats & Independents fed up with Obummer a...Democrats & Independents fed up with Obummer and all the interchangeable/indistinguishable status quo Tea-o-con religious wing-nut flip-floppin' GOP candidates ain't gonna cross over for that! <br /><br />But they will for Ron Paul, and they are. In droves!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-53384240562139178592011-07-22T11:01:19.695-05:002011-07-22T11:01:19.695-05:00My question is, why isn't Paul being put head ...My question is, why isn't Paul being put head to head with Obama anymore? Checking Cain's numbers against Obama's and Palin's is just absurd when Paul is polling 3rd in Iowa and 9% nationwide.<br /><br />Oh, and in other news, after the Audit the Fed measure, the news just broke that the Fed loaned out $16 Trillion to foreign banks and big banks here. That's more than the entire US GDP ($15.1 Trillion)!! They printed and gave away more money than the US makes in an entire year!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49867959037949310072011-07-22T08:18:57.989-05:002011-07-22T08:18:57.989-05:00Interesting/horrifying:
http://www.informs.org/OR...Interesting/horrifying:<br /><br />http://www.informs.org/ORMS-Today/Public-Articles/June-Volume-38-Number-3/Election-2012-The-13-keys-to-the-White-HouseAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-91266818356208213802011-07-22T08:10:30.189-05:002011-07-22T08:10:30.189-05:00"If there's a silver lining for Obama...&..."If there's a silver lining for Obama..."<br /><br />If there's a silver lining for Obama, whose entire life has been dedicated to class war, it's the huge number of people that vote (rather than work) for a living. I only hope enough independents wake up and vote against him.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-86748124150279806602011-07-22T01:44:05.366-05:002011-07-22T01:44:05.366-05:00I think it's time the Ron Paul movement take y...I think it's time the Ron Paul movement take you guys down and reveal you for what you are. We got rid of News Reel Blog and Horowitz.. you guys should be next. We don't need intellectually dishonest HACKS like you trying to pervert public opinion. We get that enough. fucking losers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74963377089984807672011-07-22T01:42:53.839-05:002011-07-22T01:42:53.839-05:00What a stupid f****** pollster. Uses Blogger and ...What a stupid f****** pollster. Uses Blogger and is clearly a neoconservative who just uses this as a way to push his politically hackery.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-20229072083741185652011-07-21T19:30:04.649-05:002011-07-21T19:30:04.649-05:00Dustin -
"And it also still comes down to e...Dustin - <br /><br />"And it also still comes down to electoral votes. We've found him vulnerable in NV, NH, PA, and, of course, NC, but only if Romney is the nominee, and he's still holding up when we last did VA (we'll see what this weekend has in store)."<br /><br />You're not analyzing here. You're spinning. <br /><br />How is Obama doing in Indiana? I'm going to guess not well enough to carry that state in 2012 based on his ultra-thin margin in 2008 and his subsequent drop in popularity since then.<br /><br />If he's vulnerable in Pennsylvania, then it's a safe bet he's also vulnerable in Ohio given that he did far better in PA in 2008 than he did in Ohio.<br /><br />Since you're at least ostensibly posting on behalf of PPP here, I would guess that you might want to pull back on the spinning and turn more to realistic analysis if you want to maintain at least some semblance of a reputation for objectivity.<br /><br />Obama's vulnerability in PA is a HUGE problem, and I'm unaware of any serious political analyst who wouldn't say so if asked. <br />Pennsylvania hasn't voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988. If it goes Republican, then Obama is facing a Bush/Dukakis style blowout. Surely you are studied enough in the history of presidential elections to know this.<br /><br />I'm trying to reconcile your insistence that somehow if he loses Pennsylvania then he still has 315 electoral votes when you and I both know that's the farthest thing from the truth possible. <br /><br />I would hope that you have since reviewed your comments and would revise them accordingly if given the opportunity.Jim Bhttp://www.polimerican.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6701056891104166982011-07-21T18:27:18.074-05:002011-07-21T18:27:18.074-05:00Interesting. Guess we'll see if Mitt has the s...Interesting. Guess we'll see if Mitt has the staying power this time around but I'm not betting on it. Why not add Paul, Perry and a few others to your poll? At this early stage in the cycle, you never know what is going to happen.Jacknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-83592164387100287972011-07-21T18:15:47.448-05:002011-07-21T18:15:47.448-05:00I'd love to know what his approval rating is a...I'd love to know what his approval rating is among non-union taxpaying citizens. I bet it wouldn't even be 20%.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49624409752193338672011-07-21T15:10:14.144-05:002011-07-21T15:10:14.144-05:00"Actually, the Washington Post/ABC poll that&..."Actually, the Washington Post/ABC poll that's just been released shows Ron Paul garnering 10-11% nationally if Sarah Palin isn't included into the poll"<br /><br />We go by our own polls.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-46569520225055968842011-07-21T14:04:36.094-05:002011-07-21T14:04:36.094-05:00Dustin,
You said:
"Pawlenty now does...barel...Dustin,<br /><br />You said:<br />"Pawlenty now does...barely, but we started including him because he was briefly polling in the double digits. Paul hasn't ever done that nationally. And Cain still does, despite losing his flavor-of-the-month status to Bachmann."<br /><br />Actually, the Washington Post/ABC poll that's just been released shows Ron Paul garnering 10-11% nationally if Sarah Palin isn't included into the poll, which she shouldn't be because she isn't running until she declares it.<br /><br />So if it's double digits you seek to start including Ron Paul, you got 'em.<br /><br />Those who discount Ron Paul may be in for a real surprise. The movement has begun, and it won't be stopped. If Ron Paul won't be elected, the seeds of change will have been sown by his contributions.<br /><br />Paul receives more contributions from military personnel than all Republican candidates combined and more than Obama. His fundraising is 2nd behind only Mitt Romney, and Paul's donors are all ordinary folks who give mostly small donations.<br /><br />If you're including anyone other than Mitt Romney or Michelle Bachmann into your poll, Ron Paul needs to be in that poll. If you don't poll him, how would you know how he does? The political climate is changing.Denishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06452622081348078118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-92149486689050842442011-07-21T11:57:10.850-05:002011-07-21T11:57:10.850-05:00"Yeah, it could be the massive unemployment r..."Yeah, it could be the massive unemployment rate, the bluffing on the debt ceiling ("Don't call my bluff, Eric."), the terrible housing market, and the unpopular Affordable Care Act."<br /><br />It can't be any of those except maybe unemployment. More likely a fluctuation. People seem to not like him in the summer.<br /><br />"When next you make these polls can you please ask those who "disapprove of Obama" if they disapprove from the right or from the left."<br /><br />It's not a bad idea for our next national poll.<br /><br />"You include Pawlenty and Cain, both of whom poll below Paul"<br /><br />Pawlenty now does...barely, but we started including him because he was briefly polling in the double digits. Paul hasn't ever done that nationally. And Cain still does, despite losing his flavor-of-the-month status to Bachmann.<br /><br />"I see Obama as being in much worse shape than he was last summer, all things considered."<br /><br />Definitely not. 2010 was as bad as it can get for the Democrats. There've been times when he's looked unbeatable this year, and there've been times, like now, when he's slumped a little. And it also still comes down to electoral votes. We've found him vulnerable in NV, NH, PA, and, of course, NC, but only if Romney is the nominee, and he's still holding up when we last did VA (we'll see what this weekend has in store). If he loses those four states, he's still got something like 315 EVs. The only question nationally is whether he recovers from what isn't a very big hole to begin with.<br /><br />"He's in a hole that he can't seem to get out of, no matter what he does."<br /><br />Like I said, it's not much of a hole. Mid- to high 40s is pretty remarkable given the state of the economy. People still blame Bush more for the economy than they do Obama, which is probably what's keeping him where he is.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-4957095510018023212011-07-21T10:58:01.707-05:002011-07-21T10:58:01.707-05:00People don't support... 9.2% and rising unemp...People don't support... 9.2% and rising unemployment. Massive debt, high oil, spending, taxes and big government. Obama is in big trouble if the economy is crashing. Ohh yeah. The seniors hate that he threatened them with social security scare. Once he could not bring home the Olympics for Chicago I lost all Hope and faith in OBAMA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54800644490859146602011-07-21T09:58:09.444-05:002011-07-21T09:58:09.444-05:001) To the PaulBots who keep posting: just stop. He...1) To the PaulBots who keep posting: just stop. He's not going to win the Republican nomination. He has no prayer of winning the nomination. He isn't polling any higher for the 2012 election than he polled for the 2008, and we all know how that turned out.<br /><br />2) Dustin's dismissal of the effects of ObamaCare are ludicrous for someone who polls for a living. The latest average of polling on ObamaCare shows that the public favors repeal by 49.8-40.3. And your entire response is "HA! ObamaCare hasn't even taken effect!" Really? I would hope that in retrospect you take back such an obviously thoughtless response to an issue which: a) obviously is on people's minds, and b) which is such a big negative drag on Obama.Jim Bhttp://www.polimerican.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-42143504741534720912011-07-21T06:11:50.101-05:002011-07-21T06:11:50.101-05:00Notice that Ron Paul's announced and serious c...Notice that Ron Paul's announced and serious candidacy wasn't "tested" in this article's polls. There's a reason for that: they cannot proclaim Romney as Obama's main rival if they test Paul against Obama. So, instead, the MSM lamely and deceptively pretends there is no such candidacy and proceeds to deceive the public as they always do. Whenever you see an article which doesn't even mention Paul's candidacy while pretending to cover the field of hopefuls, then you'll know you're reading a deceitful propaganda piece. Ignore it and look for informative news elsewhere.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-58874672947092749892011-07-21T01:34:07.054-05:002011-07-21T01:34:07.054-05:00i appreciate the honesty in the work.
with the ex...i appreciate the honesty in the work.<br /><br />with the exception of your nc polls, you have pulled some pretty good calls...<br /><br />the governor's election in nj and the senate race in ma were spot on, and a great intro.<br /><br />i still give the nod to rasmussen, but you have jumped ahead of gallup.<br /><br />the three of 'you' i consider essential reading, with all others being a partisan joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-29454883710772256112011-07-21T01:31:12.157-05:002011-07-21T01:31:12.157-05:00You should probably discount about 5-10% off the u...You should probably discount about 5-10% off the undecideds disapproving of Obama to allow for the Green/Communist/other far left voters who will probably hold their noses and vote for Obama.Joseph Sandersonnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-28131633501179518372011-07-21T01:27:49.424-05:002011-07-21T01:27:49.424-05:00"No, his approval rating remains about where ..."No, his approval rating remains about where it's always been, and it's a trend we've been seeing every summer."<br /><br />This is true, Dustin, but I'll point out that less than two months ago, this President killed Osama bin Laden. As we have seen, it did practically no long-term good for his approval rating.<br /><br />I see Obama as being in <i>much</i> worse shape than he was last summer, all things considered. Yes, last summer his numbers were about the same as they are now. But last summer, he hadn't just killed bin Laden. He's in a hole that he can't seem to get out of, no matter what he does.<br /><br />The American public have soured on Obama to the point that he could win World War III and the majority still wouldn't approve of him.The Interesting Timeshttp://the-futurologist.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com