tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post1865416290140300667..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: This WeekTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger30125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-23229349948745584772008-10-09T12:52:00.000-05:002008-10-09T12:52:00.000-05:001. West Virginia. This is the State most under-pol...1. West Virginia. This is the State most under-polled, one largely surrounded by by now-Blue states, one culturally in Appalachia but much a part of the Rust Belt, and largely straddling TV markets of Virginia, Ohio, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. <BR/><BR/>2. Texas. The Favorite Son (George Worthless Bush) isn't so favored there any more. It's by far the largest State in EV's that McCain will likely win. Large Latino (largely Mexican-American) and African-American minorities could conceivably swing Texas. Obama wins Texas only in a huge landslide, <BR/><BR/>3. Arkansas. Does Bill Clinton have any residual influence in Arkansas? All polling in Arkansas is at least two weeks old now, and much has changed nationwide. <BR/><BR/>4. Montana. Montana was close much of this year, and Obama was trying to get it to flip blue until he pulled out his crews to shore up his support in other states.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-15624351454123369592008-10-08T10:53:00.000-05:002008-10-08T10:53:00.000-05:00@bud: Missouri has picked the winner in almost eve...@bud: Missouri has picked the winner in almost every Presidential election since 1904. (The one exception was 1956.)<BR/><BR/>I voted for MO. I'm most curious to see how things pan out in St. Louis County, which is the most populous and the most politically, ethnically, and socioeconomically diverse county in the state. (St. Louis County does not include the city of St. Louis; the city went 80% for Kerry and 77% for Gore, so I doubt Obama will have any trouble there.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-27065878381812976652008-10-08T00:42:00.000-05:002008-10-08T00:42:00.000-05:00Nice Post. Thanks for sharing this information wit...Nice Post. Thanks for sharing this information with us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-12153332810770958192008-10-07T19:54:00.000-05:002008-10-07T19:54:00.000-05:00I definitely think South Carolina deserves to be p...I definitely think South Carolina deserves to be polled. No one has polled it since... when?? MO and NV are getting attention as "swing states," but I think some of the supposedly non-swing are also interesting to watch as they shed light on emergent trends. <BR/><BR/>I also think SC could be a "sleeper," as you say. I don't think it will turn blue, but I think that it will be the next in the South after NC, VA, and GA to do so. The Atlantic Coast is changing and will be a different "bloc" from the Gulf states within 10 years - no more unified "Southern" vote.<BR/><BR/>That was an overlong answer, but I really do hope that you will do at least one SC poll between now and 11/4. Few other pollsters provide the level of detail that yall do, and if nothing else I would appreciate the comparative an SC poll now will provide for the next election cycle. (Unfortunately, my interest is academic, not professional, so I can't pay for it myself.)<BR/><BR/>Thanks for asking, too. You rule!thisnisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00663188886983604953noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-79539028650432351812008-10-07T17:43:00.000-05:002008-10-07T17:43:00.000-05:00Missouri is key. Haven't they picked the winner th...Missouri is key. Haven't they picked the winner there in most of the past half century?Budhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00971296540636952118noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-53905383512798404232008-10-07T17:34:00.000-05:002008-10-07T17:34:00.000-05:00Thanks for letting us choose! I keep going back an...Thanks for letting us choose! <BR/><BR/>I keep going back and forth about Nevada or Missouri, but I just had to see Missouri polled some more now that it's become a dead-heat there.<BR/><BR/>But COLORADO is the big one! We haven't had any polling other than Rasmussen and some useless Mason-Dixon poll in a month! <BR/><BR/>Indiana and Virginia would be nice, but they're polled quite a bit. <BR/><BR/>South Carolina? Who cares? It's McCain +15% or more. Where's the drama in seeing if he's lost 5% off his insurmountable lead?<BR/><BR/>"Nothing to see here! Keep moving."Cugelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14415214853725925805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17238529270069538342008-10-07T17:13:00.000-05:002008-10-07T17:13:00.000-05:00According to 538, MO has only been polled 4 times ...According to 538, MO has only been polled 4 times in the last three weeks....MO is the ultimate swing state and functions pretty well as a barometer of the rest of the country. <BR/><BR/>MO will probably tip before IN will, and definitely before SC....if SC tips, Obama is winning 350 or even 400 EVs. NV it seems has already tipped to Obama, at roughly the same time that CO & NM did.<BR/><BR/>It would also be interesting to understand why Jay Nixon is running several points ahead of Obama; will Nixon pull Obama up? Which demographic groups are splitting their tickets, and why?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49938392757040267412008-10-07T16:55:00.000-05:002008-10-07T16:55:00.000-05:00Texas hasn't been polled much lately. Among Obama...Texas hasn't been polled much lately. Among Obama's longshot states, I'd much rather see Texas than South Carolina.low-tech cyclisthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05289554457923640296noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-67744412250870013392008-10-07T11:17:00.000-05:002008-10-07T11:17:00.000-05:00I'd like to see a Nebraska CD-2 (Omaha) poll done....I'd like to see a Nebraska CD-2 (Omaha) poll done. That would be interesting.Tim Weisshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06067646513804762773noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-8064937781737731912008-10-07T10:21:00.000-05:002008-10-07T10:21:00.000-05:00Cool idea. People-powered democracy at it's best. ...Cool idea. People-powered democracy at it's best. I think several states need to be polled now that Obama has jumped out in front nationally. Some red states were supposedly out of play after the Palin pick, but I wonder how they stand now:<BR/><BR/>Mississippi<BR/>North Dakota<BR/>South Dakota<BR/>Montana<BR/>Arkansas<BR/>Louisiana<BR/>Texas<BR/>Arizona<BR/>West Virginia<BR/>South Carolina<BR/>GeorgiaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-57968834520342488132008-10-07T10:12:00.000-05:002008-10-07T10:12:00.000-05:00Yeah, that´s true. Indiana forbids Robocalls, whic...Yeah, that´s true. Indiana forbids Robocalls, which is what PPP and Rasmussen do. Rasmussen does the most polls anyway, and PPP also a fair amount, so if those pollsters don´t poll a state, this is what you get (one week without polls).Rasmushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988553477224040059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-24510434343379922032008-10-07T05:03:00.000-05:002008-10-07T05:03:00.000-05:00Indiana!Indiana!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-51284772922068953542008-10-07T01:07:00.000-05:002008-10-07T01:07:00.000-05:00When are you polling VA again? Your last poll was ...When are you polling VA again? Your last poll was from 9/15, isn't it time to do a round of polling in VA?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-87376138639158669562008-10-07T00:13:00.000-05:002008-10-07T00:13:00.000-05:00I voted for NV before I saw the Stephen Colbert co...I voted for NV before I saw the Stephen Colbert comment. If you really include Stephen, then I'm ok with SC.<BR/><BR/>I think Tom said he can't/won't interview in Indiana because of state laws there. Or am I making that up?Seattlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06372126903495019391noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-80714856828903939392008-10-07T00:03:00.000-05:002008-10-07T00:03:00.000-05:00Please poll Georgia. Please please please I beg y...Please poll Georgia. Please please please I beg you! And please weight it so that the AA community will be 30% of the sample to reflect reality. Please!!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-52837160369391226922008-10-06T23:47:00.000-05:002008-10-06T23:47:00.000-05:00South Carolina! I sense a surge toward the Democra...South Carolina! I sense a surge toward the Democrats all across the South: Obama in VA, NC, and FL; Kay Hagan in NC, Jim Martin in GA, Ronnie Musgrove in MS, Rick Noriega in TX, even Bob Tuke in TN; and good showings in a bunch of House races from VA to TX. My hunch is that the bad economic news is bringing Southern whites home to the Democratic party. A poll in SC would test this hypothesis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-78514330959958411942008-10-06T23:39:00.000-05:002008-10-06T23:39:00.000-05:00I'm in Colorado. I know we're going to bring CO h...I'm in Colorado. I know we're going to bring CO home for Obama. I'd like to see MO polled.Glixhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10714674273605644018noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-847941197092523822008-10-06T23:03:00.000-05:002008-10-06T23:03:00.000-05:00OK, here are my preferences on which states I'd lo...OK, here are my preferences on which states I'd love for you to poll:<BR/><BR/>1. Nevada: If you can't poll any other state in the next week, then PLEASE poll Nevada! Until last week we've had a serious dearth of polling in The Silver State. The few new polls out of Nevada now show a small Obama lead, and I'd like to see if it's for real. And because there hasn't been too much polling on the two competitive Congressional races here, I'd love to see Derby v. Heller (NV-02) and Titus v. Porter (NV-03) included in the poll!<BR/><BR/>2. Colorado: The latest polls from here have been all over the place. I'd very much appreciate a follow-up on your last poll so we can see what's actually happening in The Centennial State.<BR/><BR/>3. Missouri: Like Nevada, there had been a severe shortage of Show-Me State polling until very recently. I'd like to see if the state of the race really has changed lately.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for opening this up to suggestions, and I can't wait to see which state is selected for the next poll! :-)<BR/><BR/>- atdnext<BR/>http://clintonistasforobama.blogspot.comatdnexthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18339904136472258194noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-87794732674378294302008-10-06T23:02:00.000-05:002008-10-06T23:02:00.000-05:00In light of the recent CNN and Rasmussen polls sho...In light of the recent CNN and Rasmussen polls showing Obama with a slight lead in Missouri, I think you should poll it to get more information on the emerging race there.<BR/><BR/>My second choices are either West Virginia or Indiana. If Obama is doing well in Appalachia, we might be in for a surprise in WV. As for Indiana, Obama has put in a huge investment there and the state hasn't been polled much.<BR/><BR/>I'm not sure why you would want to poll South Carolina though.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-15714047024455846272008-10-06T22:18:00.000-05:002008-10-06T22:18:00.000-05:00I agree that Indiana is probably more important--i...I agree that Indiana is probably more important--it hasn't been polled in a week.Full Infinity Flamehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11620499500613863262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-48727899674563786852008-10-06T21:47:00.000-05:002008-10-06T21:47:00.000-05:00MO please.Either New Hampshire or Nevada in the fu...MO please.<BR/><BR/>Either New Hampshire or Nevada in the future would be great!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-33690301204972921622008-10-06T21:22:00.000-05:002008-10-06T21:22:00.000-05:00My thoughts on which states to poll:- WV: Sleeper ...My thoughts on which states to poll:<BR/>- WV: Sleeper state; all recent polls have shown a single-digit race, and its possible that the recent developments may have pushed the race towards Obama.<BR/>- IN: Also has received way too little polling in comparison to its battleground status. <BR/><BR/>Those aren't options, though, so I'll go with SC, not only for the presidential race, but also because a few polls have amazingly shown Bob Conley not too far behind Lindsey Graham.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-81604439678212157592008-10-06T20:57:00.000-05:002008-10-06T20:57:00.000-05:00Oh scratch that. please poll Indiana!Oh scratch that. please poll Indiana!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-28609596136201636042008-10-06T20:56:00.000-05:002008-10-06T20:56:00.000-05:00You really should poll missouri and florida again ...You really should poll missouri and florida again next weekAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-7708054043897566972008-10-06T20:42:00.000-05:002008-10-06T20:42:00.000-05:00All three are more than worthy. I voted for MO to...All three are more than worthy. I voted for MO to see some confirmation of the Rasmussen from today, but would be interested in both of the other two as well.<BR/><BR/>Are you doing Florida again next week?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com