tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post2287745778848343896..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Voting TimeTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56786035659936593342010-10-13T00:45:51.047-05:002010-10-13T00:45:51.047-05:00"Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll was..."Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll wasn't out yet, and you'd made no mention that you were doing it! I'm not a mind reader!"<br /><br />Yeah, I know, which is why I held off on answering until today: we can't talk about our private client work unless we're told to, so we don't announce what we're polling for them until they've posted about it.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-63707282573976555762010-10-12T16:30:46.435-05:002010-10-12T16:30:46.435-05:00Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll wasn'...Hey, be fair! When I asked, the Kos poll wasn't out yet, and you'd made no mention that you were doing it! I'm not a mind reader!<br /><br />And also: thank you.Dale Sheldon-Hesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07974707193305445403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-47113947959874552182010-10-12T15:01:09.709-05:002010-10-12T15:01:09.709-05:00I see I'm not the alone person what would like...I see I'm not the alone person what would like to know about Vermont. Without no-Rasmussen polls from this state. I wish know about some interesting and competitive races:<br /><br />VT-Governor<br />VT-Lieutenant Governor<br />VT-Secretary of State<br />VT-State Auditor<br /><br />And would be so good to have some reference about P Leahy in his bid for the reelection.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6368178148800673922010-10-12T13:24:25.837-05:002010-10-12T13:24:25.837-05:00"Do you guys just not do Alaska?"
We di..."Do you guys just not do Alaska?"<br /><br />We did it the weekend after the primary, and as you can see, we just did it this past weekend for DailyKos. So we've done it twice in the past five or six weeks.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-44488586888010917192010-10-12T12:23:01.703-05:002010-10-12T12:23:01.703-05:00VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'...VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! VERMONT GOVERNOR'S RACE! <br />Please?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-83831979463104151092010-10-12T08:40:56.745-05:002010-10-12T08:40:56.745-05:00Regarding the 49-49 tie in the WA congressional di...Regarding the 49-49 tie in the WA congressional district, here is what somebody found and published on the swing state project:<br /><br />UPDATE: H/t to Minnesota Mike in comments, who points out (via the truly helpful Washington SoS website) that Rossi won 51-48 in the 8th in the 2008 gubernatorial race (which Chris Gregoire won 53-47), and by 54-44 in the 2004 gubernatorial race (which Gregoire won 48.87-48.87). That may actually be a better benchmark than Obama numbers, come to think of it -- as, very importantly, Rossi is from the 8th, as he used to represent the Issaquah-based 5th LD in the state Senate. So if he's tied in his own neighborhood, he's probably lagging the 50% mark by a bit statewide. <br /><br />So it's not necessarily bad news that there is a tie there since Rossi has won that district in two previous statewide elections and still went on to lose.Chuck Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-32493742076119764622010-10-11T23:37:03.513-05:002010-10-11T23:37:03.513-05:00I disagree with your assessment of WA 08. Rossi ha...I disagree with your assessment of WA 08. Rossi has to pull over 53% of the 8th to content. It is his home district and he should be doing better than he is.MaryPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06345620535560615863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54367245999200797582010-10-11T21:30:40.564-05:002010-10-11T21:30:40.564-05:00Please do a Georgia poll soon! I beg of you! I'...Please do a Georgia poll soon! I beg of you! I've been asking for one since your last and that was ages ago without the likely voter screen. Pretty please, with a cherry on top?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-52554901901777980382010-10-11T20:35:53.302-05:002010-10-11T20:35:53.302-05:00Actually, in 2004, Bush won by 3 in CD8, but Kerry...Actually, in 2004, Bush won by 3 in CD8, but Kerry won by 7 statewide (not Bush by 7). This makes CD8 7 points more conservative than the state on average.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-89232853441640983372010-10-11T20:33:42.608-05:002010-10-11T20:33:42.608-05:00You say that Patty Murray's results in your CD...You say that Patty Murray's results in your CD8 poll aren't that encouraging. Why?<br /><br />You have Murray-Rossi at 49-49. But Democrats do better statewide than they do in CD8.<br /><br />In 2004, Murray won by 7 points in CD8, but 12 points statewide. Bush won by 3 points in CD8, but 7 points statewide. Rossi won by 10 points in CD8, but it was basically a tie statewide.<br /><br />In 2006, Cantwell won by 11 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide. <br /><br />In 2008, Obama won by 15 points in CD8, but 17 points statewide. Rossi won by 2 in CD8, but Gregoire won by 6 statewide.<br /><br />Averaging all of this together, CD8 is about 6 points more conservative than the state. Or, to put it another way, CD8 has NEVER been less than 2 points more conservative than the rest of the state in the last 6 years. This seems to be a good result to Patty Murray.<br /><br />Hopefully you'll poll Washington State, since at this point it seems pretty clear that the winner of Washington will decide who controls the Senate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-80403530405925012422010-10-11T20:23:21.545-05:002010-10-11T20:23:21.545-05:00Washington or California should win. Control of t...Washington or California should win. Control of the Senate and all.<br /><br />I voted Washington, since Cali already has the Field Poll.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-55438546620938607702010-10-11T19:06:58.003-05:002010-10-11T19:06:58.003-05:00Another vote for NH with house polls. With only tw...Another vote for NH with house polls. With only two districts, house polling is relatively feasible to do, and the numbers have been volatile. Some polls have had Shea-Porter well ahead, while the recent badly-flawed UNH poll gave Guinta a lead; the only poll of the Kuster/Bass race I've seen was that one, which gave Bass a lead within the MoE (and assumed a 10-point male lean among the electorate and a heavy Republican registration advantage that doesn't exist in the state).NRHhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565160695480579309noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-13127917685817667172010-10-11T18:53:50.101-05:002010-10-11T18:53:50.101-05:00About california, could you maybe ask about the ot...About california, could you maybe ask about the other Propositions, especially Prop 23. Down-ballot races would be a plus too, as im confident in Brown and Boxer as of right nowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82429290576189985632010-10-11T18:11:40.069-05:002010-10-11T18:11:40.069-05:00Washington Senate
FWIW Dino Rossi carried the 8th...Washington Senate<br /><br />FWIW Dino Rossi carried the 8th CD in both his runs for Gov, 51-49 in 2008, 54-44 in 2004. If he is only tied as your KOS 8th CD poll indicates that is actually good news for Murray.Minnesota Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12502124577268134229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17468121172216533132010-10-11T17:56:24.565-05:002010-10-11T17:56:24.565-05:00If you poll Pennsylvania can you ask favorables fo...If you poll Pennsylvania can you ask favorables for Rick Santorum? Sestak has been trying to work that angle on Toomey lately and I would like to see if it's an effective one.Shayan Banerjeehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08491897638026782759noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-82728384066091936812010-10-11T16:46:06.422-05:002010-10-11T16:46:06.422-05:00I think it has to be Washington at this point. Tha...I think it has to be Washington at this point. That's the last piece of the Dem firewall (CT, CA, WV: 2 of 3 will give the GOP the majority).<br /><br />Very possible that WV will fall, and thus leave the GOP needing one more seat to take the Senate. Since we've seen the polling data in CA and CT lately, Washington is basically the last stand for both parties.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-72458855058736877462010-10-11T16:20:36.272-05:002010-10-11T16:20:36.272-05:00Are you going to do NH House polls? (2)?Are you going to do NH House polls? (2)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-48492431175022296042010-10-11T16:09:39.371-05:002010-10-11T16:09:39.371-05:00Do you guys just not do Alaska?
It turned into a ...Do you guys just not do Alaska?<br /><br />It turned into a three-way race at the last possible minute, and no one has polled it since before the Democrats started advertising.Dale Sheldon-Hesshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07974707193305445403noreply@blogger.com