tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post2620208402194566411..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: O the ironyTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-86829979663363163202008-07-10T15:28:00.000-05:002008-07-10T15:28:00.000-05:00I disagree with you Tom. I like it when multiple ...I disagree with you Tom. I like it when multiple polling outfits release polls for the same state at roughly the same time because it gives people a way to compare results from different polling companies and helps determine whether a poll is an outlier or not.<BR/><BR/>It also helps determine whether a polling outfit consistently favors one party or the other in their results, which can be taken into account when they release results. If a polling company consistently releases results that seem to be favored toward one party, people can incorporate this into how they view the results.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-76763112259422007772008-07-10T14:37:00.000-05:002008-07-10T14:37:00.000-05:00Hey, I would have had three requests for you- Sout...Hey, I would have had three requests for you- South Carolina, Colorado and Delaware. Interestingly two of your new "targets" fit my request. <BR/>South Carolina could be close with Obamas strength in states like GA and NC, Colorado is a battleground state where it would be good to hear PPP´s opinion in comparison to Quinnipac and Rasmussen (I don´t count Zogby Interactive).<BR/><BR/>But Delaware is a state where Kerry had a margin of victory of about the same size as in New Jersey- and at least in the moment and in the opinion of Rasmussen, which is I think a solid pollster NJ seems to be close, even if I don´t think that will hold on. <BR/><BR/>The Exit Poll data from 2004 says us that Kerry and Bush did both an about similar good job holding their base, and split Independents- there were just more Democrats. Given the fact that Delaware had a close democratic primary, Obama does not such a good job holding his base in the moment, while New England loves McCain, couldn´t that bring mcCain some points closer?<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, Kerry won the Black Vote only 82-17 (losing the white vote 45-55), where Obama might do a better job. And the percentage of Black Democratic Primary voters increased from 16% to 28%. Would love to see a poll from there.Rasmushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988553477224040059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-12315760413536323592008-07-10T11:26:00.000-05:002008-07-10T11:26:00.000-05:00Scratch my request for ND aboveRasmussen just conf...Scratch my request for ND above<BR/><BR/>Rasmussen <A HREF="http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_dakota/election_2008_north_dakota_presidential_election" REL="nofollow">just confirmed the close race there.</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-20953927715365565382008-07-10T09:50:00.000-05:002008-07-10T09:50:00.000-05:00Hi!Now that Q2 Senate fundraising is in, will we b...Hi!<BR/><BR/>Now that Q2 Senate fundraising is in, will we be getting the Burr numbers soon?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-14761359036618043702008-07-10T00:20:00.000-05:002008-07-10T00:20:00.000-05:002 states that I think should be polled:ND - SUSA h...2 states that I think should be polled:<BR/><BR/>ND - SUSA had a poll showing Obama ahead a few months ago, but there's been pretty much nothing since.<BR/><BR/>WV - McCain was running advertising here late in the primary season, and Rasmussen had Obama down only 8 before Clinton left the race - the post-primary bump could have made this a close raceAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-85584444717003442212008-07-09T15:20:00.000-05:002008-07-09T15:20:00.000-05:00Hi Tom,In the futur, it's possible to look Nevada?...Hi Tom,<BR/><BR/>In the futur, it's possible to look Nevada?<BR/><BR/>There are one news about Nevada yesterday.<BR/><BR/>Now Democrats lead in voter registration by 55.560 voters. It's 5% edge over Republicans.(1.031.000 voters in total) <BR/><BR/>In 2004, Republicans had 1% edge<BR/><BR/>http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/07/08/nevada_trends_democratic.html<BR/><BR/>Kerry lost by only 21.000 votes and Nevada will be very very close i think.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-66431330086266142052008-07-09T14:35:00.000-05:002008-07-09T14:35:00.000-05:00Is there something about the results that would ma...Is there something about the results that would make you think we didn't poll St. Louis?Tom Jensenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-37622962471689731042008-07-09T14:33:00.000-05:002008-07-09T14:33:00.000-05:00did you even bother to poll st. louis? i bet ther...did you even bother to poll st. louis? i bet there are a lot of people there .Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-80022465772742648852008-07-09T14:17:00.000-05:002008-07-09T14:17:00.000-05:00Yeah, I agree that it's a good thing. Both of your...Yeah, I agree that it's a good thing. Both of your MO results for Prez and Gov seems to line up pretty well... gives both of your results more credibility. Nice job.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-58364160820504407642008-07-09T14:16:00.000-05:002008-07-09T14:16:00.000-05:00This isn't a bad thing. In a way it confirms the ...This isn't a bad thing. In a way it confirms the validity of both polls. Most people say yall skew toward Ds and Rasmussen towards Rs.Blissfully Ignoranthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00601768557907772008noreply@blogger.com