tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post4111148000104897400..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Obama leads in MaineTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-14919290200767649322011-03-15T19:45:05.884-05:002011-03-15T19:45:05.884-05:00@Anonymous 2:
Won't the congressional distric...@Anonymous 2:<br /><br />Won't the congressional districts be redrawn before the 2012 elections?vphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16647609487352038948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-69997221593240702192011-03-15T19:05:19.720-05:002011-03-15T19:05:19.720-05:00"Do you have a breakdown by congressional dis..."Do you have a breakdown by congressional district?"<br /><br />No, we have to poll each district separately when we do that, and we only did a statewide poll this time. It's not likely, with these leads, that he's losing in either. They haven't ever split their electors either.<br /><br />"Once again Tom, you may want to try to take a look at who the undecideds are in the Palin-Obama matchup before you scream Goldwater. It's going to be pretty close to the McCain/Obama Maine result in 2008 if you actually thought about it."<br /><br />I don't think you've actually thought about it. Not that many more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats, not compared to some states and nationally. But I did the math for you. If you assign all undecided Democrats to Obama, all undecided Republicans to Palin, and split independents proportionally to where they are now, Obama would win 60-40, still bigger than McCain's 17-point loss.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-63062034817800546502011-03-15T18:42:15.074-05:002011-03-15T18:42:15.074-05:00@First anonymous-Even if Palin picked up every sin...@First anonymous-Even if Palin picked up every single undecided voter, Obama would beat her 57-43. If Palin picks up anything less than 62.5% of the undecideds, she achieves the worst loss since Goldwater. And that's if every undecided person actually votes; a significant number of undecideds are probably people who just won't vote or will vote 3rd party. The fewer undecideds that vote, the more Palin needs to avoid Goldwater territory.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-11536072134548707062011-03-15T16:55:19.469-05:002011-03-15T16:55:19.469-05:00Do you have a breakdown by congressional district?...Do you have a breakdown by congressional district? Maine splits it's vote by CD, so it would be interesting to see if Romney is competitive in the state's 2nd district (the more conservative one). I know you don't usually report results by district, but you did do that in Nebraska which also splits it's results by CD.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-55007935562009083222011-03-15T16:36:00.649-05:002011-03-15T16:36:00.649-05:00Once again Tom, you may want to try to take a look...Once again Tom, you may want to try to take a look at who the undecideds are in the Palin-Obama matchup before you scream Goldwater. It's going to be pretty close to the McCain/Obama Maine result in 2008 if you actually thought about it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com