tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post4467268945026317519..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Longer Field Periods and Round NumbersTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-63506692732017242532008-11-03T11:24:00.000-05:002008-11-03T11:24:00.000-05:00I'm wondering what the probability is that some of...I'm wondering what the probability is that some of those being called were either in a line waiting to early vote (and impossible to reach if they didn't have a cell phone or if the poll only called their land-line #) or involved in a GOTV effort, and thus away from their cells or land-lines.<BR/><BR/>This effect would be greatest, of course, in an early voting state with long lines.<BR/><BR/>I would suspect this might knock off a couple % off the Obama figures...and even worse because these are "banked votes".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-34814835101506762612008-10-24T13:08:00.000-05:002008-10-24T13:08:00.000-05:00Well if they are harder to find(which I don't beli...Well if they are harder to find(which I don't believe anyway), what makes you think they will show up to vote?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75214739034061118762008-10-23T13:28:00.000-05:002008-10-23T13:28:00.000-05:00Steven,I looked at the Big 10 polls in question. W...Steven,<BR/><BR/>I looked at the Big 10 polls in question. Weighting didn't seem to be an issue - what was the issue was that their methodology was poor in that they asked all sorts of questions before the presidential race - opinion on Bush, what direction the country is going in, what their most important issue was, state of the economy, etc. A lot of these questions would really skew the results - favored methodology should be to ask the presidential question immediately, as they would in the actual election.<BR/><BR/>Of course, results like this do suggest that it would be a very effective tactic to have volunteers standing outside polling places on Election day holding up signs asking, "Do you think the country is going in the right track or the wrong track?"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-81444233630096361792008-10-23T12:49:00.000-05:002008-10-23T12:49:00.000-05:00As always great analysis, Tom.As always great analysis, Tom.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-91972406345952402722008-10-23T12:24:00.000-05:002008-10-23T12:24:00.000-05:00Thank you so much for this posting. After looking...Thank you so much for this posting. After looking through both the Q Findings and the Battleground polling, especially Indiana, I'd developed a hypothesis that McCain voters are simply not responding anymore to pollsters somehow, otherwise how do we explain such rapid motion across the board. I had though it may be that they're despondent and simply hanging up, yet they'll still vote. My GOP friends won't even talk about the election anymore, they're so depressed about it, but I would be money they will vote no matter what. This response bias makes me worried in looking at polling results like Indiana +10. It makes you wonder if that sample isn't somehow tainted, and if Indiana is wrong, then that means all of those states are off too, and PA, WI are both closer, as is IA than we may know.<BR/><BR/>Thanks for your explanation, it totally counters this hypothesis. Though one still has to wonder how Indiana came to poll +10O, bad weighting?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-14367336557922599992008-10-23T10:39:00.000-05:002008-10-23T10:39:00.000-05:00Hmmmm, that's a pretty low number for voters aged ...Hmmmm, that's a pretty low number for voters aged 18-29, actually. Other than that, great numbers.Mathishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476038719165077711noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-65346119666442176902008-10-23T10:30:00.000-05:002008-10-23T10:30:00.000-05:00Hi Tom, What do you think about the early voting? ...Hi Tom, What do you think about the early voting? Make a article about that please.<BR/><BR/>http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html<BR/><BR/>766.000 in NC have already cast their ballots. It's huge. <BR/><BR/>Party <BR/>Dem 56.3% <BR/>Rep 27.1% <BR/>None 16.6% <BR/><BR/>Age <BR/>18-29 11.0% <BR/>30-44 18.0% <BR/>45-64 41.3% <BR/>65+ 29.7% <BR/><BR/>Race <BR/>White 67.4% <BR/>Black 28.8% <BR/>Other 3.8% <BR/><BR/>Sex <BR/>Men 42.8% <BR/>Women 56.3%<BR/><BR/>Ballot <BR/>Absentee 12.0%<BR/>One-Stop 88.0%Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-75207954596011632352008-10-23T10:24:00.000-05:002008-10-23T10:24:00.000-05:00Tom, thanks a lot for the behind-the-scene look at...Tom, thanks a lot for the behind-the-scene look at the polling process :-)<BR/><BR/>So a Suffolk like number (O+9) out of OH would still be a great one!Sreenuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08119970086230193416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-72480882264654215692008-10-23T10:22:00.000-05:002008-10-23T10:22:00.000-05:00Thanks for the perspective, Tom. I didn't even th...Thanks for the perspective, Tom. I didn't even think about the fact that pollsters would keep trying to contact the same house rather than just call a different number. So you have a list of 700 people that you absolutely know ahead of time you are going to contact, and keep trying until you contact all of them?Mathishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14476038719165077711noreply@blogger.com