tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6063108417088474880..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Feingold leads by 2Tom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-46562908445549905852010-06-29T22:49:30.088-05:002010-06-29T22:49:30.088-05:00You should withdraw this poll. You have Obama vot...You should withdraw this poll. You have Obama voters turning out in Ohio at almost the same percentage as 2008, but you have more than a quarter of the Wisconsin Obama voters not voting.<br /><br />That is impossible. Both samples can't be right. The Wisconsin is obviously flawed because even with 25% of Obama voters eliminated, Feingold still outperfroms Obama.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-85296119422634316842010-06-29T15:39:03.729-05:002010-06-29T15:39:03.729-05:00"DBL, Rasmussen actually does post their cros..."DBL, Rasmussen actually does post their crosstabs, you just have to pay to access them."<br /><br />Which is not transparency.<br /><br />"PPP has admitted that their screen is only people who voted at least once in the last 3 general elections."<br /><br />No, that's who we call. Those who bother to respond likely vote more often because they sit through a 20-40-question poll when most people hang up. That strengthens our screen, and it's evidenced by the fact that in most states, self-reported McCain voters outweigh the proportion McCain actually got in those states, and in some states Obama won, McCain voters in our poll even outnumber Obama voters. Regardless, both the Wall Street Journal and Nate Silver have rated PPP as more accurate than Rasmussen.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74502231528945633462010-06-29T14:43:11.460-05:002010-06-29T14:43:11.460-05:00I agree with most of the comments. Rasmussen is mo...I agree with most of the comments. Rasmussen is more reliable because it only takes into account LIKELY VOTERS, not simply ANONYMOUS individuals.thegiggletesthttp://thegiggletest.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-48638716030509109462010-06-29T14:15:23.506-05:002010-06-29T14:15:23.506-05:00DBL, Rasmussen actually does post their crosstabs,...DBL, Rasmussen actually does post their crosstabs, you just have to pay to access them.VA Bloggerhttp://www.tooconservative.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56155894898439246112010-06-29T13:40:46.936-05:002010-06-29T13:40:46.936-05:00WT, this is what leftists do. They smear Rasmussen...WT, this is what leftists do. They smear Rasmussen BECAUSE HE IS RIGHT and BECAUSE HE IS RELIABLE. Leftists attack those who tell the truth because they prefer to live in darkness and delusion. <br /><br />DBL, while Rasmussen's screen is not released on his free site, PPP has admitted that their screen is only people who voted at least once in the last 3 general elections. That is an incredibly light "likely" voter screen, little better than a registered voter poll. Sporadic general election voting to screen for a midterm election? Really? Since this will be a more pro-Republican midterm year, such a light "likely" voter screen is misleading. No wonder Rasmussen is more reliable.herbs814http://www.youtube.com/herbs814noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-28279385332714689122010-06-29T13:05:20.557-05:002010-06-29T13:05:20.557-05:00The poll has only 48% Obama voters compared with 4...The poll has only 48% Obama voters compared with 47% for McCain. In 2008 the vote was 56-42. If this is what the electorate will look like then it will indeed be a tough race. If the electorate looks more like it did in 2008 Russ will win easily.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-46896630046147076662010-06-29T11:38:58.517-05:002010-06-29T11:38:58.517-05:00Feingold will also have to explain his vote agains...Feingold will also have to explain his vote against Financial Reform. <br /><br />Feingold is an ideological purist. We need less of them in congress.KS21https://www.blogger.com/profile/03526686767064210665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-22148808659131201282010-06-29T10:59:24.426-05:002010-06-29T10:59:24.426-05:00It's a weird wishful thinking by Democrats tha...It's a weird wishful thinking by Democrats that Rasmussen is always wrong. I suppose it makes them feel good to think the Democrats will be fine this fall. We knew 2006 and 2008 were going to stink for us and accepted it.<br /><br />About 40% of Rasmussen's polls have been an outlier. That's significant but that means 60% are in line with others. That doesn't go well with the "they're always wrong" idea. <br /><br />The problem I have with Rasmussen is that, unlike Tom, they don't publish in tabs. The two most important factors are electorate composition and independent voting. You can't check Rasmussen that way.<br /><br />That doesn't mean they're wrong. Likely voters will lean more Republican and they and PPP are among the few to use a likely voter screen.DBLhttp://wheresthepartydoc.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-66181570447420500422010-06-29T10:39:25.171-05:002010-06-29T10:39:25.171-05:00As I recall Rasmussen put out a poll on 5/25 showi...As I recall Rasmussen put out a poll on 5/25 showing a similar 2-point lead for Feingold.<br /><br />Nate Silver slammed the poll as misleading, calling out Rasmussen for his methods, and that slam was copied throughout the liberal blogosphere.<br /><br />What do you know. Feingold leads Johnson by 2. Maybe a month ago it was wrong, but now it's the CW.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.com