tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post6987343384559815560..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Reflecting on PA-12Tom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-41492902868441483862010-05-25T10:11:04.539-05:002010-05-25T10:11:04.539-05:00Registered Democrats were 62% of registered voters...Registered Democrats were 62% of registered voters, but Critz got only 53%. (9 points below expectations)<br /><br />Registered Democrats comprised 64% of the primary day turnout, but the Critz got only 53% of the vote. (11 points below expectations.) <br /><br />A most underwhelming squeaker, carried by turnout and registration advantages, not by any significant cross-party or independent support. <br /><br />If anything, this makes the case for a Republican house even stronger. If Democrats run 9 to 11 points behind registration and turnout shares, a 40 seat Republican gain would be a piece of cake.Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-45645529842444469642010-05-20T22:21:52.762-05:002010-05-20T22:21:52.762-05:00Tom, after PPP screwed terribly their second House...Tom, after PPP screwed terribly their second House special in a row, you gotta check your screens or something.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-19085711715520999012010-05-20T22:21:52.763-05:002010-05-20T22:21:52.763-05:00My lesson from PA-12 is that for some conservadems...My lesson from PA-12 is that for some conservadems that are discusted with their president still can't part ways with their party if they get a bone in a conservadem candidate.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-50134723789878598412010-05-20T22:19:46.173-05:002010-05-20T22:19:46.173-05:00The results in PA-12 said to me that Dems won'...The results in PA-12 said to me that Dems won't lose all conservadems if they run as pro-life, pro-gun and anti-hcr, but will lose all conservadems if candidate/congressman is liberal, voted for hcr. Certainly Rs don't have so much momentum, but Critz won by running to the right.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-69649166438579750882010-05-20T15:53:24.717-05:002010-05-20T15:53:24.717-05:00"What is it Dustin - don't like the messa..."What is it Dustin - don't like the message - or is it the messenger? Your response to the comments made by Christain Liberty clearly reflects someone running and hiding from reality. Say denial? Maybe - just maybe you need to accept the facts and get over em. Ya think?"<br /><br />If Christian Liberty's views and "facts" represent reality, then apparently everyone else on earth is in another dimension.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-2370417798552262562010-05-20T14:24:26.051-05:002010-05-20T14:24:26.051-05:00Critz embraced the tea party platform of lower tax...Critz embraced the tea party platform of lower taxes, less spending, no Obamacare, no cap and trade. How did he get Bill Clinton to campaign for him?<br /><br />He also got a lower percentage of the vote than Murtha ever did. Considering that he, like Murtha, is one of them, while Obama is not, that's a far better comparison.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11928675187803337574noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-35502926298623026132010-05-20T13:12:52.607-05:002010-05-20T13:12:52.607-05:00Dustin Ingalls,
What is it Dustin - don't like...Dustin Ingalls,<br />What is it Dustin - don't like the message - or is it the messenger? Your response to the comments made by Christain Liberty clearly reflects someone running and hiding from reality. Say denial? Maybe - just maybe you need to accept the facts and get over em. Ya think?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-60603562121868614802010-05-20T11:47:08.059-05:002010-05-20T11:47:08.059-05:00The bottom line is that Washington and the Media t...The bottom line is that Washington and the Media tried to play up this race and the NRCC helped do that with unrealistic expectations.<br /><br />The district is 62% democrat and 31% republican. <br /><br />The Republicans never had a shot here. I know Obama lost here by 900 votes, but that has a lot to do with his being viewed anti-military and unfortunately his color in some instances.<br /><br />Republicans had no shot here.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11521225484156884634noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-59951127396473276152010-05-20T09:39:55.172-05:002010-05-20T09:39:55.172-05:00Critz squeaked out his underwhelming margin (way b...Critz squeaked out his underwhelming margin (way below the 62-29% registration advantage) by running to the RIGHT of the Republican. Not only did he run as pro-life and pro-gun, but he also opposed tax increases (and attacked Burns for supporting a sales tax).Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-38023928983554459152010-05-20T07:51:37.636-05:002010-05-20T07:51:37.636-05:00Folks,
Don't forget the turn out of democrats...Folks,<br /><br />Don't forget the turn out of democrats for the senate primary and governor race. You need to add that factor with pro gun, pro life, against healthcare, against pelosi and reid factors to the equation. Also, Burns was fighting against 2 races. He also had to fight his own party for the primary. It all takes the toll. But in November, there will be a united party with a national platform to run against the democratsRanjitnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-5241421761388912992010-05-19T20:53:58.276-05:002010-05-19T20:53:58.276-05:00More signs Tuesday was a strong pro-Republican ele...More signs Tuesday was a strong pro-Republican election day<br /><br />"The Democratic theory that voter anger would fade or burn out once health care was passed was wrong-headed and was undermined Tuesday. That anger remains and likely will persist through the November elections.<br /><br />Republican intensity also continues: The Democratic turnout in Kentucky declined 8% from the last midterm, while GOP turnout rose 27%. <br /><br />In Arkansas, the hot Democratic Senate primary produced a 15% increase in turnout from four years ago—but the GOP turnout more than doubled, up 122%. <br /><br />Even though Pennsylvania Republicans didn't have serious statewide primary fights while the Democrats battled over both Senate and gubernatorial nominations, Republican turnout was up 46% over the last midterm, while Democratic turnout rose 41%."<br /><br />http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703691804575254652185973976.htmlChristian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-49916122972423541522010-05-19T18:36:31.186-05:002010-05-19T18:36:31.186-05:00@Christian Liberty
1. The dems don't have to ...@Christian Liberty<br /><br />1. The dems don't have to move to the right because the Republican's moved to the far right leaving the middle wide open. All they have to do is prove to the independent voters that the Republican's are no where close to the middle and they will do well.<br /><br />2. McCain won PA-12 in 2008. For the Dems to win by that margin is a big deal in an off cycle election and with a unmotivated base.<br /><br />I suspect November may be a surprise to both parties but especially to incumbents...Chuck Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08306421096161116427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-88548712436494422752010-05-19T16:46:32.028-05:002010-05-19T16:46:32.028-05:00I wonder how much influence Bill Clinton's ral...I wonder how much influence Bill Clinton's rally had there? If I remember correctly, counties in that area of PA in the 2008 Dem primary voted in the 75 to 90 percent range for Hillary.<br /><br />It may be that Critz ran so far to the right and that, coupled with a visit from the Conservative/Moderate Democrats' favorite Big Dog, sealed the deal.<br /><br />Obama's backing and robocalls certainly did nothing for Benedict Arlen except in Philly.AuntPittypathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11021868750950188609noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-78777415011039464532010-05-19T15:57:30.232-05:002010-05-19T15:57:30.232-05:00"The key takeaway is that Democrats must run ..."The key takeaway is that Democrats must run hard to the right to even sneak out tight margins in districts in which they have superior numbers. Democrats must run away from the national party or they will lose many, many, many seats in November."<br /><br />Tight margins? Critz won by 8 when all the polls had the race essentially tied.<br /><br />And how did Critz run "hard to the right"? He's pro-life? Is that all you've got? I mean, he had Bill Clinton campaigning for him, not Rush Limbaugh or Ron Paul.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-74169560460506724802010-05-19T14:21:49.227-05:002010-05-19T14:21:49.227-05:00There are 60 Democrat-held districts that are more...There are 60 Democrat-held districts that are more competitive, more vulnerable than the PA-12 (measured by Cook PVI). There are many more opportunities in November. Many more Democrats that must run away from Obama and Pelosi to save their careers.Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-9256325732565336622010-05-19T14:17:40.211-05:002010-05-19T14:17:40.211-05:00The key takeaway is that Democrats must run hard t...The key takeaway is that Democrats must run hard to the right to even sneak out tight margins in districts in which they have superior numbers. Democrats must run away from the national party or they will lose many, many, many seats in November.Christian Libertyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04842885802414436051noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-31306444793930526342010-05-19T13:58:43.844-05:002010-05-19T13:58:43.844-05:00On the money, Tom. And forget how good or bad the...On the money, Tom. And forget how good or bad the candidates are - I think there's a bigger story here. The GOP, for whatever reason, is building a bubble, and has convinced not only themselves, but their followers, that a takeover of Congress is a likelihood.<br /><br />What happens if that doesn't come to pass? How do you explained to a ticked-off, already fractured base that you couldn't oust the "Democrat Socialist" party?<br /><br />http://bit.ly/befVVJCyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12624770198053084738noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-66959433347464128392010-05-19T13:38:55.469-05:002010-05-19T13:38:55.469-05:00Tim Burns must be a pretty awful candidate if he m...Tim Burns must be a pretty awful candidate if he managed to take an election that was a gimme lose it by 8 points. Nancy Pelosi and Obama are hated thereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-64314333138667948702010-05-19T13:25:18.776-05:002010-05-19T13:25:18.776-05:00Dead-on analysis. We can grab the marginal distric...Dead-on analysis. We can grab the marginal districts, but to get a wave there has to be something to attract voters to the GOP more than dissatisfaction with the Dems and the President.<br /><br />This could be the thing that lets the GOP regroup for November.wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.com