tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post8502019723451493834..comments2024-03-18T06:10:07.480-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: The Quality of a Pollster's QuestionsTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-20687916388556510332010-07-06T08:09:11.839-05:002010-07-06T08:09:11.839-05:00I think a key point here is that the way a questio...I think a key point here is that the way a question is worded is so important. If I were asked whether I believe the President was born in the U.S., I'd answer "No", because it's not a matter of belief, it's a matter of fact. He was born in the U.S. Now, on the other hand, if asked simply whether the President was born in the U.S., I'd of course answer "Yes", because it is true.<br /><br />So, I don't think pollsters should use terms like "believe" for questions of fact. They should instead ask "Is this or is this not true?" By including a "Don't know" response, they could then dig further with those folks on belief. But using belief in the original formulation biases the response in my opinion.Lance Snoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-8584995909715418202010-07-02T11:48:35.062-05:002010-07-02T11:48:35.062-05:00When did Hawaii become a state?When did Hawaii become a state?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-48631836296818275242010-07-02T10:21:21.139-05:002010-07-02T10:21:21.139-05:00Thanks Loren, your right that was a typo!Thanks Loren, your right that was a typo!Elena Fanjul-Debnamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04669243800226872792noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-12481737340351631672010-07-01T15:57:29.302-05:002010-07-01T15:57:29.302-05:00"64% of those who think Hawaii is a state don..."64% of those who think Hawaii is a state don’t believe Obama was born in the United States."<br /><br />I think you've got that turned around backwards. That doesn't sync with what I see in the poll data, or with common sense.Lorenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10466505033314234610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-46373557984744985762010-07-01T12:49:00.246-05:002010-07-01T12:49:00.246-05:00I think you do need more analysis. I think a good ...I think you do need more analysis. I think a good share of birthers have decided he wasn't born in the U.S. because they don't want him to be President. It's a simple explanation for something so complicated.<br /><br />If you don't approve of someone making him illegitimate reinforces your belief. I know a number of otherwise intelligent people who believe that George W. Bush didn't win the 2004 election because he "stole Ohio." When pressed to provide any evidence for this they say things like, "the exit polls were different" as if the presence of an oddity proves anything. I've never been able to shake any of them of this notion. <br /><br />But the only question that anyone ever asks Democrats that make them look crazy are those about 9/11.<br /><br />If you asked people you know what year Obama was born and what year Hawaii became a state I'd bet half can't give the exact right year. If Obama were born in Hawaii before it was a state I could understand people thinking it wasn't part of the U.S.DBLhttp://wheresthepartydoc.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-57304641485996457132010-07-01T12:41:56.912-05:002010-07-01T12:41:56.912-05:00People read Douthat?People read Douthat?Camnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-7403209427555854382010-07-01T12:25:55.981-05:002010-07-01T12:25:55.981-05:00Good post. I often feel that the major failing of...Good post. I often feel that the major failing of pollsters is in the sorts of questions that are asked, and the subtle biases presented by it.<br /><br />Opinion Dynamics (Fox's pet pollsters) are masters of this art, both on the actual polling side, and in the way they report the polls. I recall reading a series of their poll results in early '09: it was a lengthy poll, about 40 questions, but the answers were published out of sequence and in an unrelated fashion, and there were several questions that were not published.<br /><br />Question order is a very important mechanism in polling, playing on the psychological concept of priming: for instance, asking a question about culpability regarding 9/11, then asking if you think Democrats are soft on defense, or softball questions about how you feel about celebrities followed by a question about how you feel about the Iraq & Afghanistan wars.<br /><br />The true misfortune is that the profligacy of these hucksters discredits all pollsters to a great degree, because your average person on the street won't know which polling companies do what, and who to trust, and so, if they even know that most polls are unadulterated BS, they're likely to discredit ALL polls, not just ones run by crappy pollsters.<br /><br />Good post, thanks!Michael Dohrnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03693992554414181338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-83078539921721285952010-07-01T11:37:22.468-05:002010-07-01T11:37:22.468-05:00The bigger part of the puzzle is that people may n...The bigger part of the puzzle is that people may not answer poll questions strictly on the facts if they're not wholly comfortable with the prompted choices.<br /><br />When given a choice between evolution and creationism, many people who believe in evolution and also in God as creator will pick "creationism".<br /><br />Those who don't like Obama might say he's not born in the US just as an anti-Obama response, while those who don't like Bush might say he's part of a 9/11 conspiracy just to register an anti-Bush response.<br /><br />When pollsters ask stupid questions they're asking for stupid answers, and that's probably what they'll get. It's just dishonest when media outlets turn around and treat the crappy poll they designed as anything more than waste.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com