tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post8716562420254472723..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: In defense of Deeds CountryTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56752594622593083252009-08-06T22:31:52.498-05:002009-08-06T22:31:52.498-05:00I must beg to differ, Tom, on Deeds country being ...I must beg to differ, Tom, on Deeds country being the most fertile ground to turn McDonnell voters, or that turning McDonnell voters should be given priority over engaging the base.<br /><br />Your most recent poll produced a likely voter turnout model that shows unnaturally depressed liberal turnout compared to a normal non-Presidential year Virginia election. So the base vote is a big issue, both concerning black voters and white liberals.<br /><br />And turning McDonnell voters, even independents, in rural Virginia is simply harder than turning those voters in NoVA or Hampton Roads because the rural white voters, even independents, are more conservative and less elastic in their voting behavior than culturally liberal/moderate suburbanites who still favor Republicans when they're most concerned about their pocketbooks.<br /><br />I live in McLean, and Ben Tribbett of NotLarrySabato.com, one of the more knowledgeable Democratic activists in NoVA, pointed out recently that rich whites in my Virginia House district, HD-34, have been moving toward McDonnell and that it's hurting incumbent Democratic freshman Del. Margi Vanderhye. These are voters who normally vote for Democrats, but they're still very elastic depending on the year and the issue basket in play.<br /><br />Ultimately Deeds' chances require pulling in the requisite margins in NoVA and in black precincts downstate, and holding his own as he did 4 years ago elsewhere. And your poll showing just 51-44 in the 703 area code, which is VERY liberal and excludes some moderate/conservative NoVA exurbs, doesn't cut it. Deeds needs 60-40 or very close to it in NoVA.Jayant Reddyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11002669437081807466noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-30192996384036853992009-08-06T11:56:54.182-05:002009-08-06T11:56:54.182-05:00How about WAshington state, Oregon, Massachusetts,...How about WAshington state, Oregon, Massachusetts, or Iowa?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-42769330780767948652009-08-06T11:56:30.608-05:002009-08-06T11:56:30.608-05:00Tom,
Perry-Hutchinson or Rubio-CristTom,<br /><br />Perry-Hutchinson or Rubio-CristAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com