tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post8771480663499008958..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Primaries were a bad thing for GOPTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-47704018166520483642010-09-27T18:18:00.559-05:002010-09-27T18:18:00.559-05:00While comparing some of your/PPP's approval nu...While comparing some of your/PPP's approval numbers with those reported by Rasmussen, I quickly came to realize a rather sizable difference between the two. Here they are:<br /><br />RON JOHNSON: <br /> PPP; 46/34 (+12) <br /> Ras; 61/33 (+28) <br /><br />JOHN RAESE: <br /> PPP; 41/35 (+6) <br /> Ras; 53/41 (+8) <br /><br />MARCO RUBIO: <br /> PPP; 40/37 (+3) <br /> Ras; 53/42 (+11) <br /><br />PAT TOOMEY: <br /> PPP; 36/33 (+3) <br /> Ras; 57/33 (+24)<br /><br />ROB PORTMAN:<br /> PPP; 29/28 (+1)<br /> Ras; 52/27 (+25)<br /><br />CHRISTINA O'DONNELL:<br /> PPP; 29/50 (-21)<br /> Ras; 33/35 (-2)<br /><br />KEN BUCK:<br /> PPP; 26/46 (-20)<br /> Ras; 49/44 (+5) <br /><br />SHARON ANGLE:<br /> PPP; 36/52 (-16)<br /> Ras; 45/51 (-6)<br /><br />JOE MILLER:<br /> PPP; 36/52 (-16)<br /> Ras; 45/51 (-6)<br /><br />RAND PAUL:<br /> PPP; 45/40 (+5)<br /> Ras; 56/39 (+17)<br /><br />ROY BLUNT:<br /> PPP; 41/42 (-1)<br /> Ras; 53/42 (+11)<br /><br />DINO ROSSI:<br /> PPP; 43/48 (-5)<br /> Ras; 50/48 (+2)<br /><br />CARLEY FLORINA:<br /> PPP; 34/42 (-8)<br /> Ras; 47/44 (+3)<br /><br />MARK KIRK:<br /> PPP; 26/34 (-8)<br /> Ras; 47/46 (+1)<br /><br />KELLY AYOTTE:<br /> PPP; 35/47 (-12)<br /> Ras; 56/39 (+17)<br /><br />In total, there exists an average gap differential between the two of 15%. Did I miss something - or what?Al Pippinnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-20161862157641243612010-09-23T16:49:30.186-05:002010-09-23T16:49:30.186-05:00Interesting way to approach the numbers, and it...Interesting way to approach the numbers, and it's probably right to a degree. Though it depends on what you mean by a contested primary, since some of these were contested but not very well (Kirk, Rossi, Paul).<br /><br />Also, the people at the bottom (Angle and O'Donnell) were tea party candidates elected in states Obama carried easily in 2008, so their numbers would be down even if they sailed to the nomination. <br /><br />I have a wacky suggestion for your next poll -- NY-SEN! We have narrow Gillibrand leads of 1 and 6; is it really that close?wthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04343481782148411302noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-57989119476746363452010-09-23T14:00:04.141-05:002010-09-23T14:00:04.141-05:00"And you haven't even done recent polls f..."And you haven't even done recent polls for half these races."<br /><br />All of those numbers reflect polls done in either August or September, except Nevada, which was done in July.Dustin Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00599131416393266722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-37918291217102830592010-09-23T12:11:26.238-05:002010-09-23T12:11:26.238-05:00Great stuff Tom. I would add that in addition to t...Great stuff Tom. I would add that in addition to the tough primaries affecting favorability through the airing of negative ads, direct attacks, etc., I think most of these candidates had to run far to the right to win their primary and, thus, lost favorability amongst independent and moderate Republican voters (not to mention Democrats). I would also expect Raese's numbers to fall as Manchin starts attacking him, but that's just a guess.ARealSenatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07232776973041916701noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-54968056040455177312010-09-23T12:10:13.670-05:002010-09-23T12:10:13.670-05:00I hope you do a Colorado Senate poll soon as I wou...I hope you do a Colorado Senate poll soon as I would be very interested in how that race is shaping up--especially given Buck's unfav to fav ratio.Chuck Tnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-17982221332421296902010-09-23T12:01:05.007-05:002010-09-23T12:01:05.007-05:00This is more ignorant than your usual spin.
Take ...This is more ignorant than your usual spin.<br /><br />Take Angle, for instance: her ratings coming out of the primary were quite good, and only dropped afterward. After all, she won because she WASN'T the target of many negative attacks.<br /><br />And you don't think Marco Rubio had a bruising primary? I seem to remember him having an opponent at one point. And you haven't even done recent polls for half these races. And, and, and...<br /><br />To say nothing of the impact on overall name recognition, vetting, selection of quality candidates, campaigning experience, improved organizational strength, and added enthusiasm.<br /><br />I guess you're running out of plausible ways to manufacture a favorable narrative.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com