tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post9173058144386876043..comments2024-03-26T14:01:36.240-05:00Comments on Public Policy Polling: Shifts in OhioTom Jensenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06545052616714485196noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-56121008520266071362008-10-25T11:04:00.000-05:002008-10-25T11:04:00.000-05:00Tom,When is the Virginia poll coming out? Any hin...Tom,<BR/>When is the Virginia poll coming out? Any hints...ttfrenzyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01613980381375475552noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-6186668444640247922008-10-25T04:57:00.000-05:002008-10-25T04:57:00.000-05:00Every day done is a good day for Obama. Every day ...Every day done is a good day for Obama. Every day he won more vote because the early voting is huge.<BR/><BR/>At this moment i think also Colorado is in the bag and Nevada nearly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-50529738405371293812008-10-25T02:53:00.000-05:002008-10-25T02:53:00.000-05:00Rasmussen weights by party id, yes.Rasmussen weights by party id, yes.Rasmushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15988553477224040059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-4415569624394195882008-10-24T22:50:00.000-05:002008-10-24T22:50:00.000-05:00The Rasmussen Polls are consistently the best. As ...The Rasmussen Polls are consistently the best. As a Dem, it predicted 2004 exactly, even though I was not happy. They will be right about Ohio. It will be very close. Obama wins narrowly.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-12931251261410657322008-10-24T20:40:00.000-05:002008-10-24T20:40:00.000-05:00On another note, when will the Virginia poll be re...On another note, when will the Virginia poll be released? This is the state, if won, that will make all other obsolete, and I hope the solid margin continues to show itself in your next poll.David HGhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09851500170786902924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-3457942191162236252008-10-24T20:36:00.000-05:002008-10-24T20:36:00.000-05:00@Tyler, as Tom mentioned in another blog post this...@Tyler, as Tom mentioned in another blog post this week Rasmussen polls are conducted on a single day whereas PPP, Q-Poll etc are conducted over several days....apparently Obama supporters are harder to reach than McCain's supporters.<BR/><BR/>Also I suspect Rasmussen might be weighting his polls by party ID as well, though I am not a 100% sure of this.Sreenuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08119970086230193416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-18231960883326838992008-10-24T20:32:00.000-05:002008-10-24T20:32:00.000-05:00The thing to note is that 2.5% of the sample is on...The thing to note is that 2.5% of the sample is only 25 people. So we have a margin of error of ~20%, and hence we can't draw too many conclusions from them. We can't say with any statistical significance, for example, that those small town voters who are voting for Obama after Bush care more about the economy than the sample as a whole.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2799451770086337664.post-69366443565972914392008-10-24T20:26:00.000-05:002008-10-24T20:26:00.000-05:00Tom,Why do you think Rasmussen has consistenly giv...Tom,<BR/><BR/>Why do you think Rasmussen has consistenly given McCain overly favorable results in Ohio? All the other pollsters -- Quinnipiac, BigTen, PPP, SUSA -- give Obama leads outside the margin of error in the last two weeks. And big leads in the summer as well. Yet the last Ras poll showed McCain ahead by two and never once Obama ahead in the summer.<BR/><BR/>I know Scott's a Republican but he doesn't seem to purposely skew his polls.<BR/><BR/>Is he just weighting his whole sample wrong? Or is it something else?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com