Pollster Profile: Telephone Strategies Group

The NC Association of Realtors hired the Telephone Strategies Group to conduct its latest poll on the transfer tax. The Telephone Strategies Group was founded in 1998 and is run by Jaimey Sexton out of Chicago; however Jaimey and his company were located in North Carolina until a few years ago.

A large portion of the company’s clients are from North Carolina: NCAE, SEANC, NC Center for Voter Education and the NC Beer Wholesalers Association. Politically, the Telephone Strategies Group works for Democrats, including the DNC and North Carolina Congressman Brad Miller.

The company is mostly known for voter contact services, like robocalls and live person ID, GOTV, and persuasion calls. I can only find evidence of two polls they have conducted; one for the realtors and another in Tennessee.

Given that the poll had only 20 questions and none were open ended leads me to think it may have been an automated poll, but there is no documentation either way. If anyone knows, please correct me.

War of the Words

It’s now en vogue to criticize someone else’s polling as biased. It’s the easiest way discredit a pollster’s results, especially when you don’t like them. We’ve done it here, here and here. Civitas has done it here, here and here. Under the Dome here; Progressive Pulse here; and Capital Beat here. There nothing wrong with a strong critique of polling questions. In part, that’s why this blog exists. But sometimes I think we may go too far, and end up missing the story.

Claiming bias is also a good way to avoid having to analyze polling results. Just cast the results aside as biased and you’re done with it. The N&O fell in that trap yesterday when discussing our recent Raleigh survey concerning Dorothea Dix Park. Ryan Beckwith makes the observation:

A follow-up question asked if voters would support leasing a smaller section of the park, but it's tainted by wording of the "historic core" that is "crucial to the success of a future destination park."

Fair enough. But he doesn’t report the results of the question, and most importantly misses the fact that while he considers the wording tainted, it is still true. Sometimes the truth is biased and that’s not a bad thing. Bias is also a matter of opinion. Some may consider a question biased, while others disagree. Some polling questions are also intentionally biased as a scientific way to measure the strength of an argument.

I tried to avoid simply claiming bias when discussing the most recent poll released by the NC Association of Realtors. The poll was biased, no doubt. But instead of claiming bias and walking away, I tried to point out instances when the question wording was not just bias, but factually inaccurate or misleading.

I didn’t further analyze the results of that poll on this blog, but there are lessons to be learned from the results. And in counties that will now face a transfer tax referendum, I suggest people look at these poll results for insight into how their pro-and-anti-transfer tax campaigns should be run.

Even in the face of bias we shouldn’t be scared to analyze, there is still something to be learned. Factual inaccuracy, however, is a different story.

Raleigh bond for Dorothea Dix?

According to last week’s survey of likely Raleigh municipal election voters, a strong majority would support a bond referendum to help the city purchase the Dorothea Dix property from the state in order to turn it into a city park.

The city of Raleigh is currently attempting to buy the Dorothea Dix property from the state government in order to turn it into a city park. Would you support or oppose an 80 million dollar bond referendum to help the city purchase Dorothea Dix?

Support 58%
Oppose 33%

The state government may offer to lease the city of Raleigh approximately 200 of the 306 acres of Dix land for 99 years on the condition that Raleigh would spend millions to improve the land as a park. However, the state offer would not include the main hill and historic core of the Dix property. Dix Park advocates claim that the historic core is crucial to the success of a future destination park. Should Raleigh accept or reject such an offer from the state?

Accept 21%
Reject 53%

Complete results here.

Off to the races

Last Friday, July 20 marked the end of the filing period for municipal elections in North Carolina. Today we released the first poll on city elections in the Capital City. Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker is running unopposed this year, but there are six candidates for two at-large council seats. Additionally, there is an $88.6 million Parks Bond on the ballot.

Raleigh Parks Bond

For 64%
Against 29%

City Council at-large first choice (voters get two choices)

Stephenson 16%
Anderson 11%
Baldwin 7%
Best 3%
Tart 2%
Williams 1%
Undecided 60%

Second Choice

Anderson 7%
Stephenson 6%
Baldwin 5%
Tart 3%
Best 2%
Williams 2%
Undecided 75%

Complete results here. Next week we will release more results from this survey concerning the future of the Dorothea Dix property.

Realtors drop a doozy

I am not sure I want to seriously analyze the results to this latest poll, not only because many of the questions are severely loaded, but also because in many cases they are factually incorrect. They start the survey by framing the issue completely inaccurately:

Q3. There is a current debate ongoing in the North Carolina Legislature about placing a one-percent sales tax on all real estate transactions in the state. The tax would be paid for by the seller of the property. For example, if you owned a $200,000 home, you would pay a $2,000 tax to the government at the closing. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a real estate transfer tax.

There is no debate about a one percent tax; it is only .4 percent or $800 on a $200,000 home. And it wouldn’t be on all real estate transactions in the state. It would only be in counties that first approved the new tax in a county-wide referendum.

Q4. In North Carolina, the Legislature reported earlier this year a $1.3 billion budget surplus, yet, there are talks ongoing in the General Assembly that would create a new tax on real estate transactions. With surplus money, the state should NOT increase taxes because when it comes to taxes my family has hit the limit. Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose a real estate transfer tax?

Any revenue from a transfer tax would go to the county budgets, not the state budget so the surplus doesn’t apply. And whether or not there really is a surplus is a matter of contention. Same goes for Q10.

The loaded wording continues for the duration. See for yourself.

If there ever were transfer tax referenda in North Carolina counties, Public Policy Polling will provide quality, unbiased polling of their success or failure. See our work on the Wake County School Bond. In the meantime, I don’t think Q13 is worth the paper it’s printed on.

New Realtors Poll

Hat-tip to Under the Dome. Survey results here.

I will have much more on this poll later. I need time to digest it all. But here's a sample of one of the questions:

A real estate transfer tax will be paid by the property seller. It is a tax on your hard work. It is a tax on the American Dream. It is a bad idea. I would not support a state legislator who supports creating a real estate transfer tax. Strongly agree, somewhat agree....

Edwards' lead in NC remains

It’s been a busy couple of weeks of polling for us. So let me get back to discussing the Civitas poll. Lost in the shuffle were their results in the primary races. Results are here:

Democrat President
Edwards 26%
Clinton 23%
Obama 17%

Democrat Governor
Perdue 33%
Moore 24%

Republican President
Thompson 28%
Giuliani 21%
McCain 10%
Romney 8%

Republican Governor
Orr 16%
Smith 16%
Graham 8%

After our July poll had Edwards losing his lead in North Carolina, many people decried it as the end of the Edwards campaign. According to this poll, that’s probably premature. Edwards still has strength in his home state.

The Civitas poll confirms our findings that Fred Thompson, the non-candidate candidate, has taken the lead in the Tar Heel State. From what I’ve seen of polls in other states, Thompson is leading in most southern states, while he trails Giuliani and Romney in non-southern states, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire. Since such a large part of the Republican Party is based in the south, that helps explain his high standing in national polls, but it won’t help him as much in the early winner-take-all primaries – besides South Carolina.

In the Governor’s races, Civitas consistently has Beverly Perdue leading Richard Moore by more than we do. They have her leading by 9 points; we put her lead at 4.

NC Supports Renewable Energy; Opposes paying for new nuclear plants

The Conservation Council of North Carolina released today a poll confirming that North Carolina likely voters are very much in favor of renewable energy sources, and they think the state government should take action to protect the state against global warming. The poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling. Click here for the press release and complete results.

Global Warming

Serious Threat 62%
Unproven Theory 33%

Support Expansion of: Solar Power

Support 89%
Oppose 11%

Wind Power

Support 88%
Oppose 12%

Coal

Support 37%
Oppose 63%

Nuclear Power

Support 61%
Oppose 39%

More from the press release:

…When asked if the North Carolina government should act now to reduce the amount of pollutants that may contribute to climate change, 76% of likely voters supported intervention...

However on the question of nuclear energy, the results were less positive as respondents were given additional choices about that technology. When asked if they would be willing to pay higher utility rates to support the construction of new nuclear plants, the majority of respondents answered no, they would not support new construction. The majority, 72%, also believed that consumers should not start paying for the construction of new power plants before they become operational – a funding scheme known as Construction Work In Progress (CWIP).

The majority of those polled, 77% support higher utility rates if the revenue generated supported the use of renewable energy sources versus nuclear power plants. And 79% of respondents believe that power companies should be required to invest more in energy efficient practices. …

… “The poll shows what we’ve long suspected” said Nina Szlosberg President of the Conservation Council of NC. “Most people want us to do something about global warming now and they want us to do it through clean, renewable technologies.”

“We hope this poll helps lawmakers understand that they are heading in the wrong direction in the energy debate. If they listen to the people they represent, they will go back to the drawing board and produce an energy bill that promotes alternative energy without giving away “the farm” to the utilities.” …

Obesity in North Carolina

Friday was Carrie and Mark's last day with Public Policy Polling. They did great work for us this summer, and I hope you enjoyed their contributions as well.

Click here to see Carrie's final survey, released today. Below are some quotes from the press release.

According to the latest Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey of North Carolina voters, obesity ranks among their top three public health concerns with Cancer named the most pressing public health issue, followed by obesity and heart disease.

Fifty-four percent of respondents are very concerned about the high rate (24.2% among adults) of obesity in North Carolina, another 34% percent reported being somewhat concerned, while only 12% answered being not very or not at all concerned.

Results were split as to whether or not the North Carolina state government should take action to fight obesity, with 45% supporting involvement and 46% opposed.

However, a large majority, 77%, supported requiring all fast-food and chain restaurants to display nutritional information on menus and menu boards.

And 87% strongly or somewhat approves banning the sale of all junk foods, defined for respondents as high-fat, high-sugar snacks and sugared beverages, from all public school campuses.

“Although North Carolinians are initially reluctant to the idea of state government intervention in the fight against obesity, some specific policy proposals were very popular,” said Carrie McMillan of Public Policy Polling.

Response to Civitas

Over at Red Clay Citizen, Civitas takes some shots at our polling methodology and some recent polls we have conducted for clients. I’m not going to get into a pissing match calling their polls biased and our polls unbiased. But I will respond to a few specific points they made.

I left in the "press 1 on your keypad" part of the quote to let readers know that Public Policy Polling has no way to verify if their respondents are 5-year-olds, 15-year-olds, much less who they claim they are. But I digress...

Apparently, our respondents have grown from 12-year-olds to now 15-year-olds. I’ve discussed that point here and here. This seems to be the standard complaint from people who don’t like our results. It’s a form of “attack the messenger, instead of the message.”

The most egregious bias in this is that it frames the question in such a way as to suggest any county has EVER ONCE suggested that transfer taxes would be an alternative to property taxes.

That, in fact, is the case in many fast growing counties in North Carolina. In Wake County, for example, school construction needs in the next decade are estimated to cost at least $4.5 billion. That’s just for school construction, which has nothing to do with new teachers and classroom needs, nor does it account for roads, parks or any other infrastructure costs.

Wake County cannot pay for those billions of dollars without raising revenue. Right now, the only option is property taxes, because the state government doesn’t give the county the authority to use the transfer tax, sales tax, or impact fees.

Revenues are going to have to be raised, if not transfer taxes (which is the only other option on the table right now), then it will have to be property tax increases.

The other misleading aspect of this is that it repeats "one-time". But the fact is: you will pay the tax every time you sell your home.

How many times can you sell your home? Only once. Then it’s not yours anymore. You pay property taxes every year.

Here's a comparable question from June's Civitas Poll:

"A transfer tax is a tax assessed against the seller of a home or property at the time of the sale. Do you support a 1 percent transfer tax on homeowners selling their home to help local government pay for the costs associated with growth?"

That’s not the issue before the legislature. The legislature is debating whether to give counties the authority to have a referendum in order to establish a transfer tax. Voters in each county that decides it wants to have a referendum are free to vote no. Right now the legislature won’t let citizens even put it to a vote.

If Wake County decides to have a transfer tax referendum, I'm sure PPP will poll on it. Our polls on elections and referenda have been extremely accurate and fair.