Bev Perdue 43
Pat McCrory 39
Michael Munger 4
Perdue is out to a four point lead after the race was tied three weeks ago.
The Libertarian Party's certification and the resultant placement of Michael Munger on the ballot may be helping her cause. Last month McCrory had a solid lead among independent voters, but now Munger's pulling 15% of them and Perdue has the advantage. That's the key difference between these numbers and the ones that showed the race tied.
McCrory is still doing a better job of attracting crossover support than Perdue- he receives 18% of the Democratic vote, while she's polling at just 10% with Republicans.
There is a significant gender gap in the contest- Perdue is up 15 with women but down 9 with men. Perdue leads in every region of the state except Charlotte, where McCrory's 63-25 advantage is keeping the race close statewide.
Full results here.
Monday, June 2, 2008
Tracking Poll: Senate
Elizabeth Dole 47
Kay Hagan 39
After a number of polls showing the race tighter than expected, Elizabeth Dole hit the airwaves last week and has built her lead from five points in PPP's most recent poll back up to eight.
The key difference between now and the poll three weeks ago is an uptick in undecided Democratic voters. Dole did a good job at attracting crossover support six years ago, and her new ad campaign may have some Democrats unsure about whether to do it again or to support their party's nominee. The level of undecideds is particularly high among black voters.
Hagan leads in the Triad but trails in the rest of the state.
Full results here.
Kay Hagan 39
After a number of polls showing the race tighter than expected, Elizabeth Dole hit the airwaves last week and has built her lead from five points in PPP's most recent poll back up to eight.
The key difference between now and the poll three weeks ago is an uptick in undecided Democratic voters. Dole did a good job at attracting crossover support six years ago, and her new ad campaign may have some Democrats unsure about whether to do it again or to support their party's nominee. The level of undecideds is particularly high among black voters.
Hagan leads in the Triad but trails in the rest of the state.
Full results here.
Tracking Poll: North Carolina President
John McCain 43
Barack Obama 40
Bob Barr 6
John McCain 39
Hillary Clinton 34
Bob Barr 6
Obama is down 3 after trailing by seven when PPP polled the race three weeks ago. Clinton is down 5 after trailing by eight the last time time PPP surveyed the contest.
The most interesting story here is the effect that Bob Barr has on the race. Against Obama he gets 6% of the Democratic vote but just 4% of the Republican vote. Against Clinton he gets 5% among both Democrats and Republicans.
That may seem to run counter to the popular perception that he will siphon off Republican voters, but digging deeper into the numbers it appears that he actually does have the expected effect.
For instance in our last poll, John McCain received 25% of the Democratic vote against Obama and 17% against Clinton. In this survey, McCain is at just 16% and 14% with Democrats in those two matches. So it appears the Democrats Barr is gaining the support of may just be those who weren't intending to vote for the party's nominee in the first place- he's eroding McCain's Democrats more than Clinton's or Obama's.
Barr also appears to be pulling a lot of support from conservative leaning independents. Last month McCain led Obama by 15 points among independents. Now Barr is pulling 9% with those voters and McCain's lead over Obama is down to 3.
I doubt Bob Barr is really going to pull 6% of the vote come November, but if he does it will be good news for Barack Obama.
Full results here.
Barack Obama 40
Bob Barr 6
John McCain 39
Hillary Clinton 34
Bob Barr 6
Obama is down 3 after trailing by seven when PPP polled the race three weeks ago. Clinton is down 5 after trailing by eight the last time time PPP surveyed the contest.
The most interesting story here is the effect that Bob Barr has on the race. Against Obama he gets 6% of the Democratic vote but just 4% of the Republican vote. Against Clinton he gets 5% among both Democrats and Republicans.
That may seem to run counter to the popular perception that he will siphon off Republican voters, but digging deeper into the numbers it appears that he actually does have the expected effect.
For instance in our last poll, John McCain received 25% of the Democratic vote against Obama and 17% against Clinton. In this survey, McCain is at just 16% and 14% with Democrats in those two matches. So it appears the Democrats Barr is gaining the support of may just be those who weren't intending to vote for the party's nominee in the first place- he's eroding McCain's Democrats more than Clinton's or Obama's.
Barr also appears to be pulling a lot of support from conservative leaning independents. Last month McCain led Obama by 15 points among independents. Now Barr is pulling 9% with those voters and McCain's lead over Obama is down to 3.
I doubt Bob Barr is really going to pull 6% of the vote come November, but if he does it will be good news for Barack Obama.
Full results here.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Mini Tracking Poll Preview
We're going to have a mini tracking poll on Monday for the two potential Presidential match ups, and the Senate and Governor races.
Here are some of the interesting things to watch:
-We included Bob Barr for the first time, and he's having a definite impact in North Carolina. It's not necessarily what you would intuitively expect though.
-Elizabeth Dole's television ads are having a definite impact as well.
-Mike Munger might be helping Bev Perdue.
Tune in Monday. Now I'm off to 54 innings of baseball in 54 hours for the Cary Regional of the NCAA Tournament. Go Heels!
Here are some of the interesting things to watch:
-We included Bob Barr for the first time, and he's having a definite impact in North Carolina. It's not necessarily what you would intuitively expect though.
-Elizabeth Dole's television ads are having a definite impact as well.
-Mike Munger might be helping Bev Perdue.
Tune in Monday. Now I'm off to 54 innings of baseball in 54 hours for the Cary Regional of the NCAA Tournament. Go Heels!
Another Take on Money and the Senate Race
Yesterday I wrote that Kay Hagan would have trouble knocking off Elizabeth Dole if she couldn't match her dollar for dollar.
The Senate Guru, who maintains an outstanding blog here about the Senate races across the country wrote in to remind me that isn't necessarily the case.
He reported that in 2006 George Allen spent more than three times as much as Jim Webb, Jim Talent spent more than twice as much as Claire McCaskill, and Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns spent nearly twice as much as Bob Casey and Jon Tester respectively. In all four of those cases the Democratic challenger knocked off the Republican incumbent in spite of the money deficit.
I don't think the political climate is quite as toxic for Republicans this year as it was in 2006, mostly because GOP voters who were so unhappy with their party then that they didn't come out to vote seem more likely to come cast a ballot for President. Nevertheless, the Senate Guru has a good point- although it sure would be nice if Hagan could match Dole dollar for dollar!
The Senate Guru, who maintains an outstanding blog here about the Senate races across the country wrote in to remind me that isn't necessarily the case.
He reported that in 2006 George Allen spent more than three times as much as Jim Webb, Jim Talent spent more than twice as much as Claire McCaskill, and Rick Santorum and Conrad Burns spent nearly twice as much as Bob Casey and Jon Tester respectively. In all four of those cases the Democratic challenger knocked off the Republican incumbent in spite of the money deficit.
I don't think the political climate is quite as toxic for Republicans this year as it was in 2006, mostly because GOP voters who were so unhappy with their party then that they didn't come out to vote seem more likely to come cast a ballot for President. Nevertheless, the Senate Guru has a good point- although it sure would be nice if Hagan could match Dole dollar for dollar!
Thursday, May 29, 2008
It all comes down to money
I've said repeatedly the last few weeks that Kay Hagan can compete with Elizabeth Dole this fall- but that's predicated on her being able to compete with Dole dollar for dollar.
That's looking pretty tough right now. Dole clearly is concerned about the latest poll numbers, and is already on the air now in May.
We'll be releasing new numbers on the Senate race Monday. We're already in the field, and from what I've seen Dole's ads are having an impact.
Two years ago the Democrats up in DC blew a big chance in North Carolina by not financially supporting Larry Kissell against Robin Hayes. There's no doubt that even a small amount of DCCC money would have put him over the top.
Hagan is definitely on the DSCC's radar. Whether they really go to bat for her and get her the resources she needs is likely to be a determining factor in whether she can pull the upset this fall.
That's looking pretty tough right now. Dole clearly is concerned about the latest poll numbers, and is already on the air now in May.
We'll be releasing new numbers on the Senate race Monday. We're already in the field, and from what I've seen Dole's ads are having an impact.
Two years ago the Democrats up in DC blew a big chance in North Carolina by not financially supporting Larry Kissell against Robin Hayes. There's no doubt that even a small amount of DCCC money would have put him over the top.
Hagan is definitely on the DSCC's radar. Whether they really go to bat for her and get her the resources she needs is likely to be a determining factor in whether she can pull the upset this fall.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Kos on Automated Polling
Kos has a good, broad look at automated polling and its detractors.
I don't claim that IVR is an ideal method for conducting 80 question campaign benchmark polls, or academic surveys of similar length and complexity.
But for calling an election? I think it would be virtually impossible to take a dispassionate look at polling in the primaries, particularly among companies who have polled ten or more contests, and say that live interviewers have done better than automated pollsters.
I don't claim that IVR is an ideal method for conducting 80 question campaign benchmark polls, or academic surveys of similar length and complexity.
But for calling an election? I think it would be virtually impossible to take a dispassionate look at polling in the primaries, particularly among companies who have polled ten or more contests, and say that live interviewers have done better than automated pollsters.
North Carolinians and Collective Bargaining
As readers of this site doubtless well know, you can get polls showing that the public has diametrically opposed positions on the same issue depending on how questions are worded.
The most recent example of this has been the issue of collective bargaining. Civitas says North Carolinians are against it. Andy Perrin, a professor at UNC, says they support it.
Since we ran the poll for Dr. Perrin (he wrote the questions and processed the data) we obviously would tend to think that the results from his version are more accurate. Nonetheless the discussion at both sites is worth reading.
Update: Rob Schofield also discussed this issue at the Progressive Pulse.
The most recent example of this has been the issue of collective bargaining. Civitas says North Carolinians are against it. Andy Perrin, a professor at UNC, says they support it.
Since we ran the poll for Dr. Perrin (he wrote the questions and processed the data) we obviously would tend to think that the results from his version are more accurate. Nonetheless the discussion at both sites is worth reading.
Update: Rob Schofield also discussed this issue at the Progressive Pulse.
Dole on Polls
This story in The Hill about the bad shape Republicans are in when it comes to the Senate picture had some interesting stuff relating to our race here in North Carolina.
Referring to the recent rash of polls showing Elizabeth Dole in trouble:
The most recent poll, Civitas, is from a live interviewing outfit with a conservative bent. Their numbers were better news for Kay Hagan than ours, so I'm not sure how the Dole camp is going to play that one.
This is actually a good example of why when it comes to the horse race it's silly for Democrats to attack Civitas, and it's silly for Republicans to attack PPP. Getting it right is critical to the credibility of both polls, and we're going to put out the numbers we get whether they're good for the candidates we like or not. Of course we might tell you a different story about what it all means.
Referring to the recent rash of polls showing Elizabeth Dole in trouble:
Dole’s campaign attacked the automated polls earlier this month and noted that one of them was from a Democratic-leaning firm.I never saw them playing the PPP is Democratic card with the North Carolina media in the last month so that must be one they're reserving for the DC crowd. Folks in the press here know that we nailed every single statewide primary earlier in the month, and trying to attack our credibility to people who know us probably isn't going to be a winning proposition for the Dole campaign.
The most recent poll, Civitas, is from a live interviewing outfit with a conservative bent. Their numbers were better news for Kay Hagan than ours, so I'm not sure how the Dole camp is going to play that one.
This is actually a good example of why when it comes to the horse race it's silly for Democrats to attack Civitas, and it's silly for Republicans to attack PPP. Getting it right is critical to the credibility of both polls, and we're going to put out the numbers we get whether they're good for the candidates we like or not. Of course we might tell you a different story about what it all means.
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Savvy Hagan
Kay Hagan is really running a better campaign than I ever expected. I'm glad to see that she is having a round table with several sheriffs across the state to discuss immigration. Our last poll showed that Hagan is actually leading among voters whose biggest concerns are the bread and butter issues of the economy (51-39) or the war (57-36). But Dole is winning overall because she's really clobbering Hagan with voters most concerned about immigration (89-8) and moral and family values (82-10).
If Hagan can neutralize Dole even a little bit on those issues without getting too demagogic on them, she is really going to be in good shape.
I wish those issues weren't the most important thing to 17% of voters in the state. But they are, and we can't just write those voters off right from the start and expect to get 50% of the vote. That's the kind of thinking that makes Democrats lose elections.
If Hagan can neutralize Dole even a little bit on those issues without getting too demagogic on them, she is really going to be in good shape.
I wish those issues weren't the most important thing to 17% of voters in the state. But they are, and we can't just write those voters off right from the start and expect to get 50% of the vote. That's the kind of thinking that makes Democrats lose elections.
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