For the second month in a row we found Sarah Palin as the most popular of the leading 2012 GOP hopefuls among moderate Republicans. 64% have a positive opinion of her compared to 57% for Newt Gingrich, 53% for Mike Huckabee, and 45% for Mitt Romney.
Those numbers are pretty low across the board though. By comparison, 82% of moderate Democrats approve of Barack Obama's job performance.
There aren't that many moderate Republicans left- just 27% of the party's voters and about 10% of the overall electorate- but there's no doubt their votes are going to be needed to have any chance of reclaiming the White House in 2012. The big question then becomes whether one of these four can get to the point where their popularity is 80+ with the moderate wing of the party, or whether it would take one of the dark horses to get to that point- and whether such a person could retain enough popularity with conservatives to win the nomination.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Vitter vulnerable? Depends
Is David Vitter vulnerable? Our newest survey attacks that question from a number of different angles and the overall answer seems to be 'maybe.'
Just 38% of voters in the state say Vitter deserves to be reelected with 47% saying it's time to give someone else a chance. That's partly a reflection on Vitter, and partly indicative of the general anti-incumbent mood across the country right now.
When you pit Vitter against a generic Democrat though, he leads 44-38. And when you test him specifically against potential opponent Charlie Melancon, that advantage rises to 44-32.
That 44% seems to be the magic number when it comes to Vitter right now. His approval rating is also 44%, with 36% disapproving and the percentage of voters with a favorable opinion of him is 44% as well, compared to 39% who view him negatively.
So he's definitely below the 50% mark considered safe for an incumbent, but he's not that far below it and at least initially voters still prefer him to letting the seat change parties.
One thing that does seem increasingly clear is that Vitter is not all that vulnerable to a primary opponent. Even on the measure where he does weakest- whether he deserves another term or not- 56% of Republicans say yes. And that number rises to 62% on his approval rating.
Most voters in the state- 42%- don't know enough about Melancon yet to have formed an opinion about him.
Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.
Full results here
Just 38% of voters in the state say Vitter deserves to be reelected with 47% saying it's time to give someone else a chance. That's partly a reflection on Vitter, and partly indicative of the general anti-incumbent mood across the country right now.
When you pit Vitter against a generic Democrat though, he leads 44-38. And when you test him specifically against potential opponent Charlie Melancon, that advantage rises to 44-32.
That 44% seems to be the magic number when it comes to Vitter right now. His approval rating is also 44%, with 36% disapproving and the percentage of voters with a favorable opinion of him is 44% as well, compared to 39% who view him negatively.
So he's definitely below the 50% mark considered safe for an incumbent, but he's not that far below it and at least initially voters still prefer him to letting the seat change parties.
One thing that does seem increasingly clear is that Vitter is not all that vulnerable to a primary opponent. Even on the measure where he does weakest- whether he deserves another term or not- 56% of Republicans say yes. And that number rises to 62% on his approval rating.
Most voters in the state- 42%- don't know enough about Melancon yet to have formed an opinion about him.
Vitter really is in a pretty similar situation to where Mary Landrieu found herself a couple years ago. She polled in the 40s in a lot of early surveys against John Kennedy, raising Republican hopes that she could be defeated. But she still ended up winning by a solid if not spectacular margin. Whether Democrats can better take advantage of the opening they appear to have here only time will tell.
Full results here
Monday, July 20, 2009
Obama with Democrats by region
Last week a commenter asked me about Barack Obama's approval numbers among Democrats by region. Instinctively you would expect them to be at their worst in the south, but that is not the case.
He's at 87% there, followed by 85% in the midwest, and 81% in both the northeast and the west.
That doesn't necessarily surprise me. On this most recent poll a plurality of Democrats from the south were African Americans, and they are much more likely to be steady in their approval of Obama than white Democrats. Overall 79% of white Democrats nationally give Obama good marks, while 99% of black Democrats do.
We've also been more likely to find Obama's approval outperforming his share of the vote from last year in southern states. In Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas we've found him running 4-8 points ahead of his ballot box performance, and tomorrow Louisiana goes on that list. At this point that quintet of states are the only ones where we find him doing more than a point better than he did in the fall.
Of course when you look at independents in the south it's quite a different story- just 42% approval. And among Republicans it's just 7%.
He's at 87% there, followed by 85% in the midwest, and 81% in both the northeast and the west.
That doesn't necessarily surprise me. On this most recent poll a plurality of Democrats from the south were African Americans, and they are much more likely to be steady in their approval of Obama than white Democrats. Overall 79% of white Democrats nationally give Obama good marks, while 99% of black Democrats do.
We've also been more likely to find Obama's approval outperforming his share of the vote from last year in southern states. In Oklahoma, Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas we've found him running 4-8 points ahead of his ballot box performance, and tomorrow Louisiana goes on that list. At this point that quintet of states are the only ones where we find him doing more than a point better than he did in the fall.
Of course when you look at independents in the south it's quite a different story- just 42% approval. And among Republicans it's just 7%.
Should Burr vote for Sotomayor?
One thing Richard Burr's going to have trouble with next year is producing examples of his ever pursuing an independent course from the Bush or Republican agenda. Jesse Helms excluded, North Carolinians tend to vote for centrists and Burr's actions and votes during his term in the Senate have been pretty universally conservative.
That's why I wonder if he should vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor. There's no way she's going to get rejected anyway, and it would provide a high profile example he could tout to Democrats and independents next year as an example of his being cooperative with the President in some instances while opposing him in others. Obama's approval rating may be down but he's still a lot more popular in North Carolina than either of the state's Senators. Having examples to show he doesn't just serve in Washington to be an obstructionist would help Burr down the line. And while some Republicans would doubtless be antagonized by Burr voting to approve Sotomayor, there's really nowhere for them to go.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
That's why I wonder if he should vote to confirm Sonia Sotomayor. There's no way she's going to get rejected anyway, and it would provide a high profile example he could tout to Democrats and independents next year as an example of his being cooperative with the President in some instances while opposing him in others. Obama's approval rating may be down but he's still a lot more popular in North Carolina than either of the state's Senators. Having examples to show he doesn't just serve in Washington to be an obstructionist would help Burr down the line. And while some Republicans would doubtless be antagonized by Burr voting to approve Sotomayor, there's really nowhere for them to go.
It will be interesting to see what he does.
Obama continues to drop
PPP's monthly national survey shows Barack Obama's approval rating continuing to drop. It's now at 50% with 43% of voters disapproving, continuing a steady decline from 52% in June and 55% in May.
Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.
While he's continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That's four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November.
Obama continues to lead the top potential GOP hopefuls for 2012. He's up 48-42 on Mike Huckabee, 50-42 on Newt Gingrich, 51-43 on Sarah Palin, and 49-40 on Mitt Romney.
The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we've been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain. It's also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.
The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.
The Republicans are doing better against Obama in these polls but even as his popularity has dipped nearly below 50% none of them are really within striking range of him. You have to wonder if the GOP's best hope in three years is going to be a fresh face rather than one of these folks who's already been consistently in the national spotlight. PPP numbers from Louisiana out Wednesday will show Bobby Jindal as one of the most popular Governors in the country- he wouldn't be the first person from his part of the country to be elected President after sputtering in his national debut.
Full results here.
Compared to a month ago his numbers are largely unchanged with Democrats and independents but he continues to lose the little bipartisan appeal he had to begin with. His approval with Republicans is now 12%, down from 18% in June.
While he's continued to maintain a high level of popularity with African Americans and Hispanics, his approval with whites is now at 39%. That's four points below what exit polls showed him earning last November.
Obama continues to lead the top potential GOP hopefuls for 2012. He's up 48-42 on Mike Huckabee, 50-42 on Newt Gingrich, 51-43 on Sarah Palin, and 49-40 on Mitt Romney.
The six point lead over Huckabee is the first time in the four months we've been polling these match ups that Obama has shown an advantage against any of these candidates smaller than his popular vote victory over John McCain. It's also the fourth month in a row that Huckabee has fared the best of the Republicans possibilities.
The numbers from this poll also seem to indicate that Sarah Palin did not do herself any immediate damage with her decision to resign as Governor of Alaska. Her favorability spread of 47/45 is the best PPP has found it over the course of six surveys conducted in the last four months. Also, her eight point deficit against Obama is the first time it's been in single digits over the course of these monthly 2012 polls. She also continues to have easily the highest percentage of GOP voters holding a positive opinion of her.
The Republicans are doing better against Obama in these polls but even as his popularity has dipped nearly below 50% none of them are really within striking range of him. You have to wonder if the GOP's best hope in three years is going to be a fresh face rather than one of these folks who's already been consistently in the national spotlight. PPP numbers from Louisiana out Wednesday will show Bobby Jindal as one of the most popular Governors in the country- he wouldn't be the first person from his part of the country to be elected President after sputtering in his national debut.
Full results here.
Friday, July 17, 2009
Politics of the Superintendent Battle
In ruling that June Atkinson has the authority to run the state's schools, Judge Robert Hobgood said it would take a constitutional amendment to let the Governor decides who's in charge.
Good luck with that.
It would be a challenge just to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot since it would require at least some support from Republican legislators who don't have any incentive to give Bev Perdue more power. But the even more uphill battle would come once it got on the ballot. When we asked voters around the state in February whether low profile Council of State positions like Superintendent and the Commissioner of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor should be elected or appointed 65% supported keeping them as elected positions with just 22% saying they should be appointed.
That inherent opposition from voters means it would take a well funded campaign to change their minds and convince them to give up some of their power as citizens. It's hard to imagine anyone cares enough about this issue to put up the money for a thorough and well organized effort.
So a constitutional amendment more than likely isn't going to happen. Perdue can keep fighting it through the court system. But with her approval numbers what they are already, does she really want to be seen as spending her energy and political capital on an intergovernmental turf battle?
Good luck with that.
It would be a challenge just to get a constitutional amendment on the ballot since it would require at least some support from Republican legislators who don't have any incentive to give Bev Perdue more power. But the even more uphill battle would come once it got on the ballot. When we asked voters around the state in February whether low profile Council of State positions like Superintendent and the Commissioner of Agriculture, Insurance, and Labor should be elected or appointed 65% supported keeping them as elected positions with just 22% saying they should be appointed.
That inherent opposition from voters means it would take a well funded campaign to change their minds and convince them to give up some of their power as citizens. It's hard to imagine anyone cares enough about this issue to put up the money for a thorough and well organized effort.
So a constitutional amendment more than likely isn't going to happen. Perdue can keep fighting it through the court system. But with her approval numbers what they are already, does she really want to be seen as spending her energy and political capital on an intergovernmental turf battle?
Coming next week
On Monday we're going to have our monthly national poll looking forward to 2012. Obama's actually steady with independents from last month but continuing to lose the little crossover approval he had to begin with. But do Republicans need a new face from the well known quartet most discussed as possible nominees if they're going to be able to knock him off?
Tuesday and Wednesday we'll have the Louisiana poll. Bobby Jindal is a popular dude. Barack Obama is not. There are mixed messages on David Vitter.
Stay tuned...
Tuesday and Wednesday we'll have the Louisiana poll. Bobby Jindal is a popular dude. Barack Obama is not. There are mixed messages on David Vitter.
Stay tuned...
Independents more conservative
Our polls have pretty universally shown Barack Obama's approval rating dropping with independents lately, but when you take a look at who those voters are it seems almost inevitable.
Our most recent national poll showed that among independents 37% describe themselves as conservatives with just 11% defining themselves as liberals. An average of our last eight state polls finds 33% conservatives and 7% liberals. Nationally 52% are moderates and our state level average is 60%.
There have always been more conservatives than liberals within the independent ranks, but recent drops in Republican identification have likely widened the gap.
That means the independent ranks as currently constituted are more inclined to support GOP positions and candidates, although they obviously have some differences with the party line or they would probably still be in the party. This doesn't mean there's been no decline for Obama with moderate independents, but it does help to explain the weaker numbers for him with that group and why there's more of a propensity for his numbers to drop with them.
Here are the state by state numbers for independents by ideology for the last eight places we've polled:
Our most recent national poll showed that among independents 37% describe themselves as conservatives with just 11% defining themselves as liberals. An average of our last eight state polls finds 33% conservatives and 7% liberals. Nationally 52% are moderates and our state level average is 60%.
There have always been more conservatives than liberals within the independent ranks, but recent drops in Republican identification have likely widened the gap.
That means the independent ranks as currently constituted are more inclined to support GOP positions and candidates, although they obviously have some differences with the party line or they would probably still be in the party. This doesn't mean there's been no decline for Obama with moderate independents, but it does help to explain the weaker numbers for him with that group and why there's more of a propensity for his numbers to drop with them.
Here are the state by state numbers for independents by ideology for the last eight places we've polled:
| State | Liberals | Moderates | Conservatives |
| | 7 | 69 | 25 |
| | 9 | 60 | 31 |
| | 5 | 61 | 35 |
| | 9 | 71 | 20 |
| | 4 | 73 | 23 |
| | 10 | 56 | 35 |
| | 8 | 52 | 40 |
| | 10 | 43 | 47 |
Looking back on North Carolina's Senators
Continuing our series of polls looking at who North Carolinians view most and least fondly of recent elected officials, we find that Jesse Helms is the most popular of the state's last seven Senators with John Edwards taking the dubious least popular honors.
Helms, the only North Carolina Senator to be reelected in more than 40 years, was picked as most popular by 35% of respondents. Edwards finished second with 19%, and Terry Sanford finished third with 16%.
Helms finished first among Republicans with 59% picking him and also among independents with 32% picking him. Elizabeth Dole was the only other person to receive double digits among GOP voters. With Democrats Edwards finished first with 31%, followed by Sanford at 25%, and Helms at 20%.
It may seem curious that so many people picked Edwards given his overall unpopularity but that's probably owing to there only having been three Democratic Senators during this period, with Sanford having left office 17 years ago and Kay Hagan still relatively unknown to most voters.
Helms, perhaps surprisingly, was the top choice of moderates. He also won in every region of the state. The older a respondent was the more likely they were to say Helms was their favorite, an indication that he more represents where North Carolina has been than where North Carolina is headed.
Edwards and Helms finish in the top spots for the least popular category as well. Edwards gets 41% on that measure with Helms at 29% and Elizabeth Dole in third place at 11%.
Edwards is least popular among Republicans and independents, while Helms is with Democrats.
You could make an argument from the overall numbers that Sanford is actually the most positively remembered of this group. While 16% picked him as their favorite, just 3% said he was their last favorite. That +13 net review tops Helms' +6 for top honors.
Previous polls showed Ronald Reagan and Jim Hunt as most popular among recent Presidents and Governors, while George W. Bush and Mike Easley were the least popular.
Full results here
Helms, the only North Carolina Senator to be reelected in more than 40 years, was picked as most popular by 35% of respondents. Edwards finished second with 19%, and Terry Sanford finished third with 16%.
Helms finished first among Republicans with 59% picking him and also among independents with 32% picking him. Elizabeth Dole was the only other person to receive double digits among GOP voters. With Democrats Edwards finished first with 31%, followed by Sanford at 25%, and Helms at 20%.
It may seem curious that so many people picked Edwards given his overall unpopularity but that's probably owing to there only having been three Democratic Senators during this period, with Sanford having left office 17 years ago and Kay Hagan still relatively unknown to most voters.
Helms, perhaps surprisingly, was the top choice of moderates. He also won in every region of the state. The older a respondent was the more likely they were to say Helms was their favorite, an indication that he more represents where North Carolina has been than where North Carolina is headed.
Edwards and Helms finish in the top spots for the least popular category as well. Edwards gets 41% on that measure with Helms at 29% and Elizabeth Dole in third place at 11%.
Edwards is least popular among Republicans and independents, while Helms is with Democrats.
You could make an argument from the overall numbers that Sanford is actually the most positively remembered of this group. While 16% picked him as their favorite, just 3% said he was their last favorite. That +13 net review tops Helms' +6 for top honors.
Previous polls showed Ronald Reagan and Jim Hunt as most popular among recent Presidents and Governors, while George W. Bush and Mike Easley were the least popular.
Full results here
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