The big story to start out the South Carolina Governor's race is that most of the candidates aren't well known- and that for the one who is it's a bad thing.
We looked at Andre Bauer, Gresham Barrett, and Henry McMaster on the Republican side. For Democrats we tested Jim Rex, Vincent Sheheen, and Robert Ford.
78% of voters professed to have no opinion about Sheheen, 70% didn't about Ford, 69% didn't about Barrett, 59% didn't about Rex, and 49% didn't about McMaster.
Andre Bauer is the exception to the rule, with 43% of voters holding a negative opinion of him and just 22% viewing him favorably. What's most interesting about Bauer's standing is that he actually gets worse reviews from Republicans (a 23/42 spread) than Democrats (22/36). And he's most unpopular with independents (19/55). So it appears Bauer will have a lot of trouble in either a primary or general election. At the same time he showed an ability to come back from the political dead in 2006 so it would be a mistake to completely write him off.
McMaster and Barrett both lead all three potential Democratic opponents. McMaster is up 40-31 on Rex, 41-27 on Sheheen, and 42-27 on Ford. For Barrett the leads are 40-33, 41-26, and 42-28 respectively.
It would be a pretty competitive race if Bauer were to somehow snag the nomination. He leads Ford and Sheheen just 37-33 and 38-33 respectively and actually trails Rex 37-36.
At this point it appears Republicans are certainly favored to keep the Governor's office but given how anonymous the candidates generally are right now it's not impossible one of the Democrats could really catch on and make it a closely contested race.
We didn't directly test the primary contests but Jim Rex is viewed favorably by 27% of Democrats compared to 20% for Robert Ford and 16% for Vincent Sheheen.
On the Republican side Henry McMaster is viewed favorably by 36% of voters in his party to 23% for Andre Bauer and 19% for Gresham Barrett.
All things considered the race looks pretty wide open.
Full results here
Thursday, December 10, 2009
GOP candidates sport best performance yet
With Barack Obama's approval rating hitting new lows in most polling it should come as no surprise that his leads over potential 2012 Republican opponents are as well. Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, and Tim Pawlenty all have their best performances relative to Obama in this month's poll and Mitt Romney matches his strongest standing yet.
Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 46-45. It's interesting to note that Huckabee's share of the Democratic vote is up from 11% a month ago to now 16%, but his share of the Republican vote is down from 87% to 83%. There's a similar trend in his favorability numbers. Although they're pretty much unchanged overall from 36/37 a month ago to 35/35 now, he's dropped from 65% of Republicans seeing him positively to 57% but has increased from 13% to 17% with Democrats. We'll want to see if this trend continues before making any definitive conclusions, but it appears there's some possibility the publicity about his commutation of Maurice Clemmons brought a side of Huckabee out in the national spotlight that made him more popular across party lines but less popular within his own.
Mitt Romney comes next closest to Obama, trailing 47-42, matching his five point deficit from a month ago. His biggest problem continues to be lagging popularity with Republicans- 51% of them view him favorably, well behind Huckabee and Sarah Palin. That's a trend that's existed in our polling for most of the year and could spell trouble when it comes to Romney's prospects of winning the nomination.
Palin has her top showing against Obama, trailing 50-44. That's quite an improvement from March when we first tested the Obama-Palin contest and found her trailing 55-35. What's interesting is that there's been almost no change in her favorability numbers over the course of the year. She was at 39/50 then and she's at 41/50 now. That's a pretty clear sign the tightening has had little to do with her and almost everything to do with Obama's declining popularity.
Finally Tim Pawlenty, who 64% of voters have no opinion about, trails 48-35.
The importance of these numbers 35 months before Obama has to stand for reelection is obviously limited but it does seem pretty clear that his electoral position is weaker than it was a year ago at this time, given that his margins against Huckabee, Romney, and Palin are less than what he won by against John McCain. The most immediate implications of this relate to how effective he'll be as a candidate surrogate in the 2010 elections- will folks in tough races want Obama to come appear for them or not?
Full results here
Huckabee comes the closest, trailing Obama 46-45. It's interesting to note that Huckabee's share of the Democratic vote is up from 11% a month ago to now 16%, but his share of the Republican vote is down from 87% to 83%. There's a similar trend in his favorability numbers. Although they're pretty much unchanged overall from 36/37 a month ago to 35/35 now, he's dropped from 65% of Republicans seeing him positively to 57% but has increased from 13% to 17% with Democrats. We'll want to see if this trend continues before making any definitive conclusions, but it appears there's some possibility the publicity about his commutation of Maurice Clemmons brought a side of Huckabee out in the national spotlight that made him more popular across party lines but less popular within his own.
Mitt Romney comes next closest to Obama, trailing 47-42, matching his five point deficit from a month ago. His biggest problem continues to be lagging popularity with Republicans- 51% of them view him favorably, well behind Huckabee and Sarah Palin. That's a trend that's existed in our polling for most of the year and could spell trouble when it comes to Romney's prospects of winning the nomination.
Palin has her top showing against Obama, trailing 50-44. That's quite an improvement from March when we first tested the Obama-Palin contest and found her trailing 55-35. What's interesting is that there's been almost no change in her favorability numbers over the course of the year. She was at 39/50 then and she's at 41/50 now. That's a pretty clear sign the tightening has had little to do with her and almost everything to do with Obama's declining popularity.
Finally Tim Pawlenty, who 64% of voters have no opinion about, trails 48-35.
The importance of these numbers 35 months before Obama has to stand for reelection is obviously limited but it does seem pretty clear that his electoral position is weaker than it was a year ago at this time, given that his margins against Huckabee, Romney, and Palin are less than what he won by against John McCain. The most immediate implications of this relate to how effective he'll be as a candidate surrogate in the 2010 elections- will folks in tough races want Obama to come appear for them or not?
Full results here
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Little evidence of Democratic unrest
Our new poll suggests that liberal unhappiness with Barack Obama is still largely anecdotal and not very widespread. His approval rating with liberal Democrats is 95%, with only 3% disapproving of him.
On health care 88% of voters in that group say they're with Obama and only 7% are opposed. We simply are not seeing any broad evidence of push back toward him from the left for not advocating for single payer.
There is a little more unrest with him on Afghanistan. 68% of liberal Democrats support his approach there with 22% opposed. Even with those who disagree with him on the issue 81% express approval of his overall job performance so it doesn't seem to be a deal breaker by any means.
Certainly media outlets can go out and find some individuals on the left disenchanted with Obama if they want to push a Democratic disunity narrative but it's hard to make much more than an anecdotal case on that front. For the most part liberal Democrats are pretty content with Obama.
On health care 88% of voters in that group say they're with Obama and only 7% are opposed. We simply are not seeing any broad evidence of push back toward him from the left for not advocating for single payer.
There is a little more unrest with him on Afghanistan. 68% of liberal Democrats support his approach there with 22% opposed. Even with those who disagree with him on the issue 81% express approval of his overall job performance so it doesn't seem to be a deal breaker by any means.
Certainly media outlets can go out and find some individuals on the left disenchanted with Obama if they want to push a Democratic disunity narrative but it's hard to make much more than an anecdotal case on that front. For the most part liberal Democrats are pretty content with Obama.
Most Unpopular Governors
Here's something particularly remarkable about Mark Sanford's 36/51 approval breakdown in our poll today- those numbers are actually better than average for the nine Governors we've looked at the ratings for since the beginning of September. He's less popular than Jay Nixon, Jack Markell, and Tim Kaine but more so than John Baldacci, Jan Brewer, Jim Doyle, Bev Perdue, and Jon Corzine.
I'd been planning to write a blog post for several weeks about the least popular Governors in the country but was waiting to do the South Carolina poll because I assumed Sanford would be on the list...but he's not!
Based on our approval ratings and those of other pollsters I believe these (in alphabetical order) to be the eight least popular Governors in the country:
-John Baldacci (D) of Maine (25/57 approval spread when we looked at it in October)
-Jan Brewer (R) of Arizona (26/43 when we polled at in September)
-Jim Doyle (D) of Wisconsin (29/57 in our November poll, 32/58 on Pollster trend)
-Jim Gibbons (R) of Nevada (Pollster trend is 31/66)
-David Paterson (D) of New York (Pollster trend is 25/71)
-Bev Perdue (D) of North Carolina (30% on our last poll after months in the 20s, Pollster trend is 33/50)
-Ed Rendell (D) of Pennsylvania (Pollster trend is 33/65)
-Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) of California (Pollster trend is 27/69)
There may be other Governors who are similarly unpopular whose states don't get polled as much, have to work with the information that's out there.
My takeaway is that the biggest popularity killer for Governors right now is having to deal with tough budgetary decisions. The only person on this list due to personal issues is Gibbons. The rest have suffered from some combination of these money related problems:
-Having to raise taxes in a recession to balance the budget
-Bickering with their legislatures about how to balance the budget
-Looking weak and indecisive when it comes to providing leadership on balancing the budget.
Not an easy time to be a Governor.
Brewer, Gibbons, and Paterson are the only ones up for reelection next year and all seem likely at this point to lose their party's primaries.
I'd been planning to write a blog post for several weeks about the least popular Governors in the country but was waiting to do the South Carolina poll because I assumed Sanford would be on the list...but he's not!
Based on our approval ratings and those of other pollsters I believe these (in alphabetical order) to be the eight least popular Governors in the country:
-John Baldacci (D) of Maine (25/57 approval spread when we looked at it in October)
-Jan Brewer (R) of Arizona (26/43 when we polled at in September)
-Jim Doyle (D) of Wisconsin (29/57 in our November poll, 32/58 on Pollster trend)
-Jim Gibbons (R) of Nevada (Pollster trend is 31/66)
-David Paterson (D) of New York (Pollster trend is 25/71)
-Bev Perdue (D) of North Carolina (30% on our last poll after months in the 20s, Pollster trend is 33/50)
-Ed Rendell (D) of Pennsylvania (Pollster trend is 33/65)
-Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) of California (Pollster trend is 27/69)
There may be other Governors who are similarly unpopular whose states don't get polled as much, have to work with the information that's out there.
My takeaway is that the biggest popularity killer for Governors right now is having to deal with tough budgetary decisions. The only person on this list due to personal issues is Gibbons. The rest have suffered from some combination of these money related problems:
-Having to raise taxes in a recession to balance the budget
-Bickering with their legislatures about how to balance the budget
-Looking weak and indecisive when it comes to providing leadership on balancing the budget.
Not an easy time to be a Governor.
Brewer, Gibbons, and Paterson are the only ones up for reelection next year and all seem likely at this point to lose their party's primaries.
Limited Support for Sanford Impeachment
South Carolina voters don't think much of Mark Sanford anymore. And a fair number of them want him to resign. But when it comes to the possibility of impeaching him there's little public support.
Sanford's approval rating is now just 36%, with 51% of voters disapproving of him. He still has a decent 50/34 spread with Republicans (making him more popular within the party than Lindsey Graham), but independents split against him 50/37 and Democrats do so by a 73/18 margin.
Voters are pretty evenly split on whether they'd like to see Sanford resign, with 45% supporting such a move and 47% opposed to it. Interestingly even 10% of people who approve of Sanford's job performance think he should choose to leave office. But 19% of those who disapprove of him think he should not resign.
Andre Bauer may have a lot to do with people who don't like Sanford but want him to remain in office. Polling data we'll release tomorrow on next year's race for Governor finds that Bauer's net favorability rating is even worse than Sanford's net approval rating, so voters in the state aren't exactly keen to see him become Governor. Indeed among those respondents who said they disapproved of Sanford but didn't want him to resign, 59% have an unfavorable opinion of Bauer to just 21% who see him favorably.
When it comes to the question of impeachment only 32% of voters are supportive with 58% in opposition. A slight majority of Democrats favor it (53/35) with stronger majorities of independents (60/27) and Republicans (75/17) opposed.
South Carolina voters don't like Sanford much any more, but they may like the continued negative national media spotlight that impeachment proceedings bring even less. That, combined with the unpopular possibility of Andre Bauer becoming Governor, has voters in the state supportive of Sanford serving out his term and presumably hoping that he will do so while attracting as little additional attention as possible.
Full results here
Sanford's approval rating is now just 36%, with 51% of voters disapproving of him. He still has a decent 50/34 spread with Republicans (making him more popular within the party than Lindsey Graham), but independents split against him 50/37 and Democrats do so by a 73/18 margin.
Voters are pretty evenly split on whether they'd like to see Sanford resign, with 45% supporting such a move and 47% opposed to it. Interestingly even 10% of people who approve of Sanford's job performance think he should choose to leave office. But 19% of those who disapprove of him think he should not resign.
Andre Bauer may have a lot to do with people who don't like Sanford but want him to remain in office. Polling data we'll release tomorrow on next year's race for Governor finds that Bauer's net favorability rating is even worse than Sanford's net approval rating, so voters in the state aren't exactly keen to see him become Governor. Indeed among those respondents who said they disapproved of Sanford but didn't want him to resign, 59% have an unfavorable opinion of Bauer to just 21% who see him favorably.
When it comes to the question of impeachment only 32% of voters are supportive with 58% in opposition. A slight majority of Democrats favor it (53/35) with stronger majorities of independents (60/27) and Republicans (75/17) opposed.
South Carolina voters don't like Sanford much any more, but they may like the continued negative national media spotlight that impeachment proceedings bring even less. That, combined with the unpopular possibility of Andre Bauer becoming Governor, has voters in the state supportive of Sanford serving out his term and presumably hoping that he will do so while attracting as little additional attention as possible.
Full results here
Obama's December Standing
For the second month in a row we find Barack Obama's national approval rating at 49%, with 47% of voters disapproving of him. He has the support of 83% of Democrats, 46% of independents, and 11% of Republicans. None of those numbers have really changed from our November poll.
Support for Obama on health care has hit another new low with just 39% of voters now expressing approval of his health care plans and 52% opposed. 90% of respondents who said they were opposed to Obama's plan said it was because it involved the government too much in health care with just 6% saying their opposition was because it didn't create enough government involvement. This would seem to refute other recent polling that suggested a large amount of opposition to Obama on health care was coming from the left.
Obama gets better marks on Afghanistan with 47% of voters saying they support his approach there to 37% who are opposed. Not surprisingly he gets more support from Republicans on this issue than health care (30% compared to 5%) and less from Democrats (63% compared to 69%). His Afghanistan stance isn't doing anything to help his overall standing with GOP voters though- even among those who say they agree with him on this issue his approval rating is only 13%.
Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama's declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they'd rather have his predecessor. Given the horrendous approval ratings Bush showed during his final term that's somewhat of a surprise and an indication that voters are increasingly placing the blame on Obama for the country's difficulties instead of giving him space because of the tough situation he inherited. The closeness in the Obama/Bush numbers also has implications for the 2010 elections. Using the Bush card may not be particularly effective for Democrats anymore, which is good news generally for Republicans and especially ones like Rob Portman who are running for office and have close ties to the former President.
Finally 20% of voters, including 35% of Republicans, support impeaching Obama for his actions so far. I'm not clear exactly what 'high crimes and misdemeanors' they are using to justify that position but there may be a certain segment of voters on both the right and the left these days that simply think the President doing things they don't agree with is grounds for removal from office. I don't think Obama has a lot to worry about on that front.
Full results here
Support for Obama on health care has hit another new low with just 39% of voters now expressing approval of his health care plans and 52% opposed. 90% of respondents who said they were opposed to Obama's plan said it was because it involved the government too much in health care with just 6% saying their opposition was because it didn't create enough government involvement. This would seem to refute other recent polling that suggested a large amount of opposition to Obama on health care was coming from the left.
Obama gets better marks on Afghanistan with 47% of voters saying they support his approach there to 37% who are opposed. Not surprisingly he gets more support from Republicans on this issue than health care (30% compared to 5%) and less from Democrats (63% compared to 69%). His Afghanistan stance isn't doing anything to help his overall standing with GOP voters though- even among those who say they agree with him on this issue his approval rating is only 13%.
Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama's declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they'd rather have his predecessor. Given the horrendous approval ratings Bush showed during his final term that's somewhat of a surprise and an indication that voters are increasingly placing the blame on Obama for the country's difficulties instead of giving him space because of the tough situation he inherited. The closeness in the Obama/Bush numbers also has implications for the 2010 elections. Using the Bush card may not be particularly effective for Democrats anymore, which is good news generally for Republicans and especially ones like Rob Portman who are running for office and have close ties to the former President.
Finally 20% of voters, including 35% of Republicans, support impeaching Obama for his actions so far. I'm not clear exactly what 'high crimes and misdemeanors' they are using to justify that position but there may be a certain segment of voters on both the right and the left these days that simply think the President doing things they don't agree with is grounds for removal from office. I don't think Obama has a lot to worry about on that front.
Full results here
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
Charmed First Term Republicans
One thing I thought about doing the South Carolina poll over the weekend is that pretty much none of the new Republican Senators elected in 2004 are seen as vulnerable in their attempts for reelection. There is basically zero discussion about Democrats trying to win the seats of DeMint, Lisa Murkowksi, Johnny Isakson, Tom Coburn, and John Thune and although there's more about Richard Burr and David Vitter those still aren't seen as really great pick up opportunities for next year.
I'm not sure all those folks in the Republican class of 2004 are truly unbeatable. Coburn did have really impressive numbers when we polled Oklahoma back in May. Don't know anything about Murkowksi or Thune, although it does look like we'll be polling South Dakota this weekend. But DeMint sported good but not great numbers on our SC poll and most of the polling I've seen on Isakson, although there isn't a lot of it, has shown pretty mediocre approval numbers for him.
If it was a different year DeMint and Isakson at the least might be facing much stiffer challenges. But given how much Democrats have to defend elsewhere that just doesn't seem to be in the cards. The 2004 class of Senate Republicans have really had impeccable timing- they got elected in somewhat of a Republican year and they're going to stand for reelection in what is likely to be a very good Republican year. It's unlikely that a Richard Burr would have won election in either 2006 or 2008- but it's nothing new for luck to be a key determiner of whether a politician's career is successful or not.
I'm not sure all those folks in the Republican class of 2004 are truly unbeatable. Coburn did have really impressive numbers when we polled Oklahoma back in May. Don't know anything about Murkowksi or Thune, although it does look like we'll be polling South Dakota this weekend. But DeMint sported good but not great numbers on our SC poll and most of the polling I've seen on Isakson, although there isn't a lot of it, has shown pretty mediocre approval numbers for him.
If it was a different year DeMint and Isakson at the least might be facing much stiffer challenges. But given how much Democrats have to defend elsewhere that just doesn't seem to be in the cards. The 2004 class of Senate Republicans have really had impeccable timing- they got elected in somewhat of a Republican year and they're going to stand for reelection in what is likely to be a very good Republican year. It's unlikely that a Richard Burr would have won election in either 2006 or 2008- but it's nothing new for luck to be a key determiner of whether a politician's career is successful or not.
Looking at Huck
After Mike Huckabee's bad news week his poll numbers must be completely shattered, right?
Not so much. Our monthly look at the 2012 Presidential race, due out Thursday, will show Huckabee's favorability at 35/35, pretty much unchanged from 36/37 on our November poll. And not only does it show him once again as the Republican who comes closest to Barack Obama, but it also shows him coming closer to Obama than he has in any of the previous nine monthly polls.
Does that mean he's getting a free pass on the Washington cop killings by an inmate whose sentence he commuted? Probably not. I'm sure that would be a massive liability if he did get into the 2012 Republican field, and used effectively against him by his opponents. But it's a good reminder that the vast majority of Americans do not live and die by the 24 hour news cycle. Huckabee's numbers haven't changed because more than likely few voters who didn't already have their minds made up about him are familiar with his connection to last week's tragedy.
The incident will probably hurt Huckabee's political standing in the long run, but for now it's not having an impact on him.
Not so much. Our monthly look at the 2012 Presidential race, due out Thursday, will show Huckabee's favorability at 35/35, pretty much unchanged from 36/37 on our November poll. And not only does it show him once again as the Republican who comes closest to Barack Obama, but it also shows him coming closer to Obama than he has in any of the previous nine monthly polls.
Does that mean he's getting a free pass on the Washington cop killings by an inmate whose sentence he commuted? Probably not. I'm sure that would be a massive liability if he did get into the 2012 Republican field, and used effectively against him by his opponents. But it's a good reminder that the vast majority of Americans do not live and die by the 24 hour news cycle. Huckabee's numbers haven't changed because more than likely few voters who didn't already have their minds made up about him are familiar with his connection to last week's tragedy.
The incident will probably hurt Huckabee's political standing in the long run, but for now it's not having an impact on him.
DeMint favored, not inevitable
Jim DeMint is favored for reelection, although it may not be quite as inevitable as expected.
47% of voters in the state say they plan to vote for DeMint next year, compared to 38% who say they'll choose his Democratic opponent. DeMint has his party pretty unified, as GOP voters say they'll go for him by a 79-7 margin. But he's earned little of the crossover support that colleague Lindsey Graham enjoys, with Democrats saying they'll vote against DeMint 77-9.
DeMint leads 45-34 with independents, a solid margin but not as large as the ones many Republican candidates across the country enjoy with that group right now. For instance North Carolina's Richard Burr, also up next year and widely viewed as one of the two most vulnerable Republican incumbents, has a 51-30 lead against a generic Democrat with independents.
44% of voters in the state approve of the job DeMint is doing with 29% disapproving and 27% with no opinion. He gets good marks from 62% of Republicans, 45% of independents, and 22% of Democrats.
Is DeMint vulnerable? He is below the 50% mark generally considered safe for an incumbent on the two key measures of job approval and generic ballot performance. His numbers are comparable to those of Louisiana's David Vitter (44-38 generic ballot lead) and North Carolina's Burr (44-40 generic ballot lead), widely seen as the two most vulnerable Republicans running for reelection next year. But national Democrats would have to put a lot of resources into the state to give DeMint a really tough battle and given the quantity of seats Democrats already hold that they're having to defend and South Carolina's strong Republican lean that seems unlikely to happen.
If they do decide to make a go of it though the poll suggests a potentially effective line of attack against DeMint. Only 29% of voters in the state think DeMint's main focus since his election has been advocating for South Carolina in the Senate, while 41% think his greater priority has been serving as a leader in the national conservative movement. A perceived lack of focus on local issues can come back to bite an elected official, as exemplified most recently by Elizabeth Dole's reelection loss in North Carolina last year. DeMint probably doesn't have too much to worry about right now, but his reelection isn't a complete slam dunk.
Full results here
47% of voters in the state say they plan to vote for DeMint next year, compared to 38% who say they'll choose his Democratic opponent. DeMint has his party pretty unified, as GOP voters say they'll go for him by a 79-7 margin. But he's earned little of the crossover support that colleague Lindsey Graham enjoys, with Democrats saying they'll vote against DeMint 77-9.
DeMint leads 45-34 with independents, a solid margin but not as large as the ones many Republican candidates across the country enjoy with that group right now. For instance North Carolina's Richard Burr, also up next year and widely viewed as one of the two most vulnerable Republican incumbents, has a 51-30 lead against a generic Democrat with independents.
44% of voters in the state approve of the job DeMint is doing with 29% disapproving and 27% with no opinion. He gets good marks from 62% of Republicans, 45% of independents, and 22% of Democrats.
Is DeMint vulnerable? He is below the 50% mark generally considered safe for an incumbent on the two key measures of job approval and generic ballot performance. His numbers are comparable to those of Louisiana's David Vitter (44-38 generic ballot lead) and North Carolina's Burr (44-40 generic ballot lead), widely seen as the two most vulnerable Republicans running for reelection next year. But national Democrats would have to put a lot of resources into the state to give DeMint a really tough battle and given the quantity of seats Democrats already hold that they're having to defend and South Carolina's strong Republican lean that seems unlikely to happen.
If they do decide to make a go of it though the poll suggests a potentially effective line of attack against DeMint. Only 29% of voters in the state think DeMint's main focus since his election has been advocating for South Carolina in the Senate, while 41% think his greater priority has been serving as a leader in the national conservative movement. A perceived lack of focus on local issues can come back to bite an elected official, as exemplified most recently by Elizabeth Dole's reelection loss in North Carolina last year. DeMint probably doesn't have too much to worry about right now, but his reelection isn't a complete slam dunk.
Full results here
Lindsey Graham's standing
Lindsey Graham has more crossover appeal than almost any other US Senator in the country. He's also one of the least popular Senators within his own party. Such is the product of being a rare politician with any bipartisan instincts in these highly polarized times.
Overall 43% of South Carolina voters approve of the job Graham is doing with 35% disapproving. With Republicans his approval is 46% to 34% disapproving. Out of 28 Senators PPP has measured approval ratings for in the last six months that makes Graham one of just three with the support of less than 50% of his party's voters. The others are Maine's Olympia Snowe, whose approval with Republicans dropped to 40% after her committee vote in favor of a Democratic health care bill, and Delaware's Ted Kaufman who is mostly unknown to the state's voters after being appointed to replace Joe Biden in the Senate.
The unhappiness of some Republicans voters with him is no big secret- 33% of primary voters chose a more conservative alternative to him last year and 41% of the party's respondents on this poll said they think Graham is too liberal.
The willingness to occasionally go against the party line has won Graham an unusual amount of support from Democrats though. 38% approve of the job he's doing with 36% disapproving. That makes him third only to Snowe and Maine's other Senator, Susan Collins, for crossover approval among the folks we've polled on in the last half year.
As long as he can survive Republican primaries Graham's probably got this seat for as long as he wants it. When you're relatively popular with Democrats in a state that's strongly Republican leaning to begin with that's a good recipe for reelection in perpetuity.
Here's how Graham stacks up in terms of crossover approval with other Senators we've polled on since the beginning of June:
Overall 43% of South Carolina voters approve of the job Graham is doing with 35% disapproving. With Republicans his approval is 46% to 34% disapproving. Out of 28 Senators PPP has measured approval ratings for in the last six months that makes Graham one of just three with the support of less than 50% of his party's voters. The others are Maine's Olympia Snowe, whose approval with Republicans dropped to 40% after her committee vote in favor of a Democratic health care bill, and Delaware's Ted Kaufman who is mostly unknown to the state's voters after being appointed to replace Joe Biden in the Senate.
The unhappiness of some Republicans voters with him is no big secret- 33% of primary voters chose a more conservative alternative to him last year and 41% of the party's respondents on this poll said they think Graham is too liberal.
The willingness to occasionally go against the party line has won Graham an unusual amount of support from Democrats though. 38% approve of the job he's doing with 36% disapproving. That makes him third only to Snowe and Maine's other Senator, Susan Collins, for crossover approval among the folks we've polled on in the last half year.
As long as he can survive Republican primaries Graham's probably got this seat for as long as he wants it. When you're relatively popular with Democrats in a state that's strongly Republican leaning to begin with that's a good recipe for reelection in perpetuity.
Here's how Graham stacks up in terms of crossover approval with other Senators we've polled on since the beginning of June:
| Senator | Approval w/other party |
| | 60% |
| Susan Collins (R-ME) | 40% |
| Lindsey Graham (R-SC) | 38% |
| John McCain (R-AZ) | 32% |
| Tom Carper (D-DE) | 28% |
| David Vitter (R-LA) | 28% |
| George Voinovich (R-OH) | 27% |
| Mark Pryor (D-AR) | 26% |
| Kit Bond (R-MO) | 26% |
| Jeff Sessions (R-AL) | 25% |
| Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) | 24% |
| Mark Warner (D-VA) | 22% |
| Richard Shelby (R-AL) | 22% |
| Richard Burr (R-NC) | 22% |
| Jim DeMint (R-SC) | 22% |
| Herb Kohl (D-WI) | 19% |
| Mary Landrieu (D-LA) | 18% |
| Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) | 15% |
| Jon Kyl (R-AZ) | 15% |
| Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) | 14% |
| Claire McCaskill (D-MO) | 12% |
| Jim Webb (D-VA) | 12% |
| Mark Udall (D-CO) | 11% |
| Russ Feingold (D-WI) | 10% |
| Ted Kaufman (D-DE) | 10% |
| Michael Bennet (D-CO) | 9% |
| Robert Menendez (D-NJ) | 8% |
| Sherrod Brown (D-OH) | 8% |
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