Democratic Congressional candidates this fall are only going to go as far as Barack Obama's popularity will take them.
On our last national poll Republicans led 80-3 on the generic Congressional ballot with voters who disapprove of Obama. Simply put if you disapprove of Obama there is almost no chance you're voting Democratic this year.
At the same time if you like Obama there's almost no chance you're voting Republican this year- Democrats lead 78-7 on the generic ballot with folks who do approve of Obama.
This may all seem like a no brainer but the data shows just how strong the trend is. For all the machinations that will take place in close Senate and House races across the country this year, how the voters feel about the candidates themselves may take a backseat in deciding the outcome to how they feel about Obama.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
North Carolina Day 2 Filing Roundup
I may not be completely pure in talking just about folks who filed just yesterday...just a lot of information to absorb. So today I'm going to focus on developments so far this week in the state House picture:
-We now have rematches from a couple of the closest races in 2008. Norman Sanderson, who lost 50-48 to Alice Graham Underhill, is back for more as is Rayne Brown who lost 53-47 to Hugh Holliman. Those are going to be tough holds for Democrats, although Underhill and Holliman have both shown an ability to win some hard races in the past. (Underhill did lose in 2002 before winning close races in 2004, 2006, and 2008.)
-Democrats in some pretty marginal districts who didn't even have opponents in 2008 are starting to see some line up. Bob England represents one of the most Republican leaning ones currently held by a Democrat and he's already got a pair of opponents in Alan Toney and Mike Hager. Arthur Williams also ran unopposed in a relatively divided district last time around- he'll face GOPer Bill Cook. And Rick Glazier, in a leaning but not overwhelmingly Democratic district, has a Republican opponent in Jackie Warner after getting a free ride last time around. As I said yesterday, for the GOP to have any chance of getting control of the House the first step is to at least have candidates in all these places where they came up empty last time around.
Two other notes:
-Mark Hollo is running again for his old seat, which he lost narrowly to Ray Warren in 2006 and 2008. Warren is not seeking reelection and this is probably the #1 GOP pick up opportunity on the House side.
-Ann Newman has filed to run for Jim Gulley's old seat. This may be the best opportunity Democrats have to play offense this year between it being an open seat and more Democratic than almost any other House seat Republicans currently hold.
-We now have rematches from a couple of the closest races in 2008. Norman Sanderson, who lost 50-48 to Alice Graham Underhill, is back for more as is Rayne Brown who lost 53-47 to Hugh Holliman. Those are going to be tough holds for Democrats, although Underhill and Holliman have both shown an ability to win some hard races in the past. (Underhill did lose in 2002 before winning close races in 2004, 2006, and 2008.)
-Democrats in some pretty marginal districts who didn't even have opponents in 2008 are starting to see some line up. Bob England represents one of the most Republican leaning ones currently held by a Democrat and he's already got a pair of opponents in Alan Toney and Mike Hager. Arthur Williams also ran unopposed in a relatively divided district last time around- he'll face GOPer Bill Cook. And Rick Glazier, in a leaning but not overwhelmingly Democratic district, has a Republican opponent in Jackie Warner after getting a free ride last time around. As I said yesterday, for the GOP to have any chance of getting control of the House the first step is to at least have candidates in all these places where they came up empty last time around.
Two other notes:
-Mark Hollo is running again for his old seat, which he lost narrowly to Ray Warren in 2006 and 2008. Warren is not seeking reelection and this is probably the #1 GOP pick up opportunity on the House side.
-Ann Newman has filed to run for Jim Gulley's old seat. This may be the best opportunity Democrats have to play offense this year between it being an open seat and more Democratic than almost any other House seat Republicans currently hold.
Why is Medina doing well?
Debra Medina's surprising success in the Texas Republican primary for Governor seems to be driven more by anti-establishment sentiment than ideology.
Among GOP voters who think Congressional Republicans are too liberal Rick Perry still leads with 41% to 34% for Medina and just 17% for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Medina certainly does better with those voters than she does with the overall electorate but it's not enough to put her ahead of the incumbent.
Among GOP voters who just generally disapprove of Congressional Republicans though Medina goes into the lead with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. Those are the folks who are just plain unhappy with the establishment and she can win with them.
Does that mean the success of the Tea Party movement generally relies more on anti-establishment feelings than ideology? Hard to say. When we polled Kentucky in December Rand Paul was up 44-24 overall. With primary voters who felt Congressional Republicans were too liberal he lead 54-18. With ones who generally just didn't like Congressional Republicans he led by a pretty similar 55-21 margin.
I'll be interested to see the data on those fronts when we finally poll Florida, and also as more of these viable Tea Party candidacies emerge.
Among GOP voters who think Congressional Republicans are too liberal Rick Perry still leads with 41% to 34% for Medina and just 17% for Kay Bailey Hutchison. Medina certainly does better with those voters than she does with the overall electorate but it's not enough to put her ahead of the incumbent.
Among GOP voters who just generally disapprove of Congressional Republicans though Medina goes into the lead with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. Those are the folks who are just plain unhappy with the establishment and she can win with them.
Does that mean the success of the Tea Party movement generally relies more on anti-establishment feelings than ideology? Hard to say. When we polled Kentucky in December Rand Paul was up 44-24 overall. With primary voters who felt Congressional Republicans were too liberal he lead 54-18. With ones who generally just didn't like Congressional Republicans he led by a pretty similar 55-21 margin.
I'll be interested to see the data on those fronts when we finally poll Florida, and also as more of these viable Tea Party candidacies emerge.
Burr's Primary Challenge
Richard Burr got himself a primary challenge yesterday from Asheboro City Councilman Eddie Burks...does he actually have anything to worry about?
His approval numbers among Republican voters have tended a little to the low side...over the course of our last four polls his average approval with them is 63%. We tend to see something higher for an incumbent Senator within his own party.
At the same time there are also very few Republican voters who dislike Burr- an average of 13% over our last four polls.
As is the case with the overall electorate, there is a fair amount of indifference to Burr among Republican voters. That means for a primary challenger to get anywhere against him would take a message that could get grassroots activists fired up and money flowing in. Burks, however, seems more focused on Burr's lack of visibility than any sort of ideological crusade. That's unlikely to be enough to get primary voters to turn out an incumbent Senator.
I doubt Burr will match the 90% Elizabeth Dole got in the Republican primary two years ago against a little known opponent, but I don't think he has anything to worry about either.
His approval numbers among Republican voters have tended a little to the low side...over the course of our last four polls his average approval with them is 63%. We tend to see something higher for an incumbent Senator within his own party.
At the same time there are also very few Republican voters who dislike Burr- an average of 13% over our last four polls.
As is the case with the overall electorate, there is a fair amount of indifference to Burr among Republican voters. That means for a primary challenger to get anywhere against him would take a message that could get grassroots activists fired up and money flowing in. Burks, however, seems more focused on Burr's lack of visibility than any sort of ideological crusade. That's unlikely to be enough to get primary voters to turn out an incumbent Senator.
I doubt Burr will match the 90% Elizabeth Dole got in the Republican primary two years ago against a little known opponent, but I don't think he has anything to worry about either.
White pulling closer
The nasty nature of the Republican primary in Texas has Rick Perry and Kay Bailey Hutchison's approval numbers down and Bill White within striking range for the general election.
Perry's approval is now just 33%, with 50% of voters in the state disapproving of him. Last February PPP found him at a 41/48 spread. Hutchison's fall has been even more pronounced. Her approval is now 40%, with 37% of voters giving her bad marks. She was at a 58/31 spread a year ago.
In some sense these approval numbers are artificially low- Hutchison is at just a 54% approval rating with Republicans and Perry is even lower at 51%. Generally politicians are at 70% on up within their parties but the spirited primary has partisans rating their candidate's opponent less favorably than they might once the nominee's picked and the party's back on the same page.
For now the disunity has likely Democratic nominee Bill White pulling closer. Hutchison leads White by seven points, 45-38, while Perry and Debra Medina hold advantages of six points- 48-42 and 44-38 respectively.
White and Medina, who haven't been the targets of negative campaigning in the same way as Perry and Hutchison, have much better favorability numbers than their better known opponents. White's at a 34/17 spread with 49% of voters having no opinion about him and Medina's at 32/13 with 55% ambivalent towards her.
The number of voters with no opinion about White might suggest room for him to grow in the general election but he already pretty much has Democratic voters locked up regardless of whether they know who he is. He'll have to make a fair amount of in roads with independents and Republicans to be successful this fall.
Hutchison's supporters, assuming she does not win the nomination, may be the swing group this fall. They don't like Perry- and that's why his approval numbers are so bad right now- but do they dislike him so much they'd vote for a Democrat over him in the fall? Right now the answer is no. Republicans who like Hutchison and dislike Perry still say they'll vote for Perry by a 66-28 margin over White. White will need to win over a lot more of those folks once the final match up is set.
Full results here
Perry's approval is now just 33%, with 50% of voters in the state disapproving of him. Last February PPP found him at a 41/48 spread. Hutchison's fall has been even more pronounced. Her approval is now 40%, with 37% of voters giving her bad marks. She was at a 58/31 spread a year ago.
In some sense these approval numbers are artificially low- Hutchison is at just a 54% approval rating with Republicans and Perry is even lower at 51%. Generally politicians are at 70% on up within their parties but the spirited primary has partisans rating their candidate's opponent less favorably than they might once the nominee's picked and the party's back on the same page.
For now the disunity has likely Democratic nominee Bill White pulling closer. Hutchison leads White by seven points, 45-38, while Perry and Debra Medina hold advantages of six points- 48-42 and 44-38 respectively.
White and Medina, who haven't been the targets of negative campaigning in the same way as Perry and Hutchison, have much better favorability numbers than their better known opponents. White's at a 34/17 spread with 49% of voters having no opinion about him and Medina's at 32/13 with 55% ambivalent towards her.
The number of voters with no opinion about White might suggest room for him to grow in the general election but he already pretty much has Democratic voters locked up regardless of whether they know who he is. He'll have to make a fair amount of in roads with independents and Republicans to be successful this fall.
Hutchison's supporters, assuming she does not win the nomination, may be the swing group this fall. They don't like Perry- and that's why his approval numbers are so bad right now- but do they dislike him so much they'd vote for a Democrat over him in the fall? Right now the answer is no. Republicans who like Hutchison and dislike Perry still say they'll vote for Perry by a 66-28 margin over White. White will need to win over a lot more of those folks once the final match up is set.
Full results here
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Young people and 2010
It's pretty much a given that turnout from young people will be down in this year's midterm election. It's also pretty much a given that will hurt Democrats because they did so well with voters under 30 in 2008. But here's another layer to that problem- we're finding in our polling that the young people who do plan to turn out this year are much more Republican leaning than the ones who came out last time.
The last six Senate races we polled were in Arkansas, Alaska, Illinois, North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Nevada. Across those six races the Democratic candidates are doing an average of 36 points worse on the margin than Barack Obama did with young people in their states in 2008. Now keep in mind that many of these samples of young people are pretty small and have high margins of error precisely because so few of them are planning to turn out this year but when you're talking about 35 points there's certainly something there.
Young Republican voters may be disengaged this year as well but for now it's not nearly to the same extent as young Democratic voters. Here's the data:
The last six Senate races we polled were in Arkansas, Alaska, Illinois, North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Nevada. Across those six races the Democratic candidates are doing an average of 36 points worse on the margin than Barack Obama did with young people in their states in 2008. Now keep in mind that many of these samples of young people are pretty small and have high margins of error precisely because so few of them are planning to turn out this year but when you're talking about 35 points there's certainly something there.
Young Republican voters may be disengaged this year as well but for now it's not nearly to the same extent as young Democratic voters. Here's the data:
| State | 2008 Result | 2010 Polling | Difference |
| | McCain +26 | Murkowski +29 | 3 |
| | Tie | Boozman +29 | 29 |
| | Obama +44 | Giannoulias +3 | 41 |
| | Obama +57 | Coakley +11 | 46 |
| | Obama +36 | Lowden +10 | 46 |
| | Obama +48 | Generic Dem +2 | 46 |
Day 1 Filing Roundup
I'm going to do a daily round up during the North Carolina filing period of what I found interesting. I could write a ton every day but I'm going to try to keep it short:
-Marcus Williams filed as a Democrat in the US Senate race. He actually really surprised some folks and got 13% in the primary two years ago, coming within five points of the much more heralded Jim Neal. I don't think he's a serious threat to win the nomination but he could have some impact on the race.
-We have a couple rematches in state senate races that were very close in 2008. Former representative Louis Pate is running against Don Davis again in eastern North Carolina. Davis won 53-47 last time around. This district has one of the largest black populations in the state and because of that Democrats are particularly prone to having trouble with Obama wave voters not coming back out. In Alamance and Caswell Counties Rick Gunn is once again challenging Tony Foriest. That was a 53-47 district in 2008 as well.
-On the good news for Democrats side of the spectrum, they're getting some credible candidates in tough districts. Former representative David Redwine filed for RC Soles' open seat and Gaston County school board chair Annette Carter put her name in for David Hoyle's open seat. Clayton mayor Jody McLeod is running against first term Republican David Rouzer, who won just 52-48 last time around. None of these districts will be easy for Democrats but it's a good sign for the party that good people are willing to run.
-William Brisson got a challenger for his seat in the House. Why is that notable? He's a Democrat in a marginally Democratic districts who didn't even have a Republican challenger in 2008. This is the kind of district where the GOP needs to win to have any chance at getting back the lower chamber and actually fielding a candidate is a good way to start.
In the interest of brevity I'll leave it at that for today!
-Marcus Williams filed as a Democrat in the US Senate race. He actually really surprised some folks and got 13% in the primary two years ago, coming within five points of the much more heralded Jim Neal. I don't think he's a serious threat to win the nomination but he could have some impact on the race.
-We have a couple rematches in state senate races that were very close in 2008. Former representative Louis Pate is running against Don Davis again in eastern North Carolina. Davis won 53-47 last time around. This district has one of the largest black populations in the state and because of that Democrats are particularly prone to having trouble with Obama wave voters not coming back out. In Alamance and Caswell Counties Rick Gunn is once again challenging Tony Foriest. That was a 53-47 district in 2008 as well.
-On the good news for Democrats side of the spectrum, they're getting some credible candidates in tough districts. Former representative David Redwine filed for RC Soles' open seat and Gaston County school board chair Annette Carter put her name in for David Hoyle's open seat. Clayton mayor Jody McLeod is running against first term Republican David Rouzer, who won just 52-48 last time around. None of these districts will be easy for Democrats but it's a good sign for the party that good people are willing to run.
-William Brisson got a challenger for his seat in the House. Why is that notable? He's a Democrat in a marginally Democratic districts who didn't even have a Republican challenger in 2008. This is the kind of district where the GOP needs to win to have any chance at getting back the lower chamber and actually fielding a candidate is a good way to start.
In the interest of brevity I'll leave it at that for today!
Medina coming on strong
Could the Republican primary for Governor in Texas end up in a runoff between Rick Perry...and Debra Medina? Medina is coming on strong and polls now at 24%, just four points behind Kay Bailey Hutchison's 28%. Perry continues to hold a double digit advantage at 39%.
Medina is clearly riding the wave of discontent with the Republican establishment. Among primary voters who disapprove of the job the GOP in Congress is doing she actually leads with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. The problem for Medina is those folks only account for a third of the electorate and among the majority who are happy with the Republicans in Washington she's in a distant third at 17% to 48% for Perry and 27% for Hutchison. There may not end up being enough discontented Republican voters for her to move into the top two but she is nevertheless exceeding expectations.
Hutchison's issues are twofold: voters trust Washington politicians even less than usual right now and she's simply not connecting with the conservative voters who dominate a GOP primary electorate. Asked whether they have more faith in Washington politicians or Austin politicians to solve Texas' problems 78% said the state level ones to just 3% picking the national level. And while Hutchison has a commanding 49-29 lead over Perry with moderate voters, she is in last place with conservatives. Perry leads the pack at 42% followed by Medina at 25% and Hutchison at 23%. 76% of likely primary voters are conservatives to only 20% who are moderates.
Medina supporters say their second choice is Perry by a 43-39 margin over Hutchison, suggesting that if Perry does win by ten points but still end up in a runoff Hutchison's prospects for gaining ground on him are not that strong.
Hutchison actually has better approval numbers than Perry, pulling a 51/28 spread to his 50/36. But with Medina in the race the anti-Perry vote is splitting almost evenly with 46% going to Hutchison and 43% going to Medina. And in a huge shift from when PPP polled this race last February Perry is leading Hutchison 61-15 among voters who like both of them. A year ago Hutchison led 49-33 with those voters. At this point they seem to be sending a message that they'd like for both Perry and Hutchison to stay right where they are.
It'll be interesting to see if Medina continues to gain over these final three weeks- even getting to a runoff would have to be seen as a pretty big victory for the Tea Party crowd.
On the Democratic side Bill White leads with 49% to 19% for Farouk Shami and a total of 8% for the other five candidates.
Full results here
Medina is clearly riding the wave of discontent with the Republican establishment. Among primary voters who disapprove of the job the GOP in Congress is doing she actually leads with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. The problem for Medina is those folks only account for a third of the electorate and among the majority who are happy with the Republicans in Washington she's in a distant third at 17% to 48% for Perry and 27% for Hutchison. There may not end up being enough discontented Republican voters for her to move into the top two but she is nevertheless exceeding expectations.
Hutchison's issues are twofold: voters trust Washington politicians even less than usual right now and she's simply not connecting with the conservative voters who dominate a GOP primary electorate. Asked whether they have more faith in Washington politicians or Austin politicians to solve Texas' problems 78% said the state level ones to just 3% picking the national level. And while Hutchison has a commanding 49-29 lead over Perry with moderate voters, she is in last place with conservatives. Perry leads the pack at 42% followed by Medina at 25% and Hutchison at 23%. 76% of likely primary voters are conservatives to only 20% who are moderates.
Medina supporters say their second choice is Perry by a 43-39 margin over Hutchison, suggesting that if Perry does win by ten points but still end up in a runoff Hutchison's prospects for gaining ground on him are not that strong.
Hutchison actually has better approval numbers than Perry, pulling a 51/28 spread to his 50/36. But with Medina in the race the anti-Perry vote is splitting almost evenly with 46% going to Hutchison and 43% going to Medina. And in a huge shift from when PPP polled this race last February Perry is leading Hutchison 61-15 among voters who like both of them. A year ago Hutchison led 49-33 with those voters. At this point they seem to be sending a message that they'd like for both Perry and Hutchison to stay right where they are.
It'll be interesting to see if Medina continues to gain over these final three weeks- even getting to a runoff would have to be seen as a pretty big victory for the Tea Party crowd.
On the Democratic side Bill White leads with 49% to 19% for Farouk Shami and a total of 8% for the other five candidates.
Full results here
Monday, February 8, 2010
The SurveyUSA/FDL poll
It's probably not party line for me to say this but the issue of SurveyUSA's age weighting on its Firedoglake polls is just kind of a distraction from the poll results.
To be clear I don't think turnout in the 18-34 group this year will be nearly as low as those polls have it- but I also don't think it has that significant an effect on the poll results. In his weekly column today Mark Blumenthal helpfully figured out what the actual breakdown by age was in 2006 in those districts. For Baron Hill's it was 16% 18 to 34 as opposed to 5% in the poll, for Steve Driehaus' it was 17% as opposed to 3%, and for Tim Bishop's it was 10% as opposed to 1%.
Let's say for the sake of argument that all three of those Democrats are winning 60-40 with voters under the age of 35.
In Baron Hill's district if you make voters 18-34 16% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 32% to 21%, you get Hill trailing Mike Sodrel by 4 points instead of 8 points.
In Steve Driehaus' district if you make voters 18-34 17% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 41% to 27%, you get Driehaus trailing Steve Chabot by 17 points instead of 11 points.
In Tim Bishop's district if you make voters 18-34 10% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 41% to 32%, you get Bishop leading Randy Altschuler by 3 points instead of 2 points.
The takeaway from the SurveyUSA polls in these districts based on the numbers as they were released was that Steve Driehaus and Baron Hill were in big trouble and Tim Bishop was in the most trouble he's been in in quite a long time. Reweight the numbers for age and while the numbers improve for the Democrats, I don't think the overall conclusions do. And I'm not surprised, because I rarely find when we weight for age that it has an impact of more than 2-3 points on the topline numbers. I may see a younger electorate than SurveyUSA does, but I don't think its impact on those poll results is that great.
To be clear I don't think turnout in the 18-34 group this year will be nearly as low as those polls have it- but I also don't think it has that significant an effect on the poll results. In his weekly column today Mark Blumenthal helpfully figured out what the actual breakdown by age was in 2006 in those districts. For Baron Hill's it was 16% 18 to 34 as opposed to 5% in the poll, for Steve Driehaus' it was 17% as opposed to 3%, and for Tim Bishop's it was 10% as opposed to 1%.
Let's say for the sake of argument that all three of those Democrats are winning 60-40 with voters under the age of 35.
In Baron Hill's district if you make voters 18-34 16% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 32% to 21%, you get Hill trailing Mike Sodrel by 4 points instead of 8 points.
In Steve Driehaus' district if you make voters 18-34 17% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 41% to 27%, you get Driehaus trailing Steve Chabot by 17 points instead of 11 points.
In Tim Bishop's district if you make voters 18-34 10% of the sample and give him 60% of the vote with them, while reducing the representation of seniors in the poll from 41% to 32%, you get Bishop leading Randy Altschuler by 3 points instead of 2 points.
The takeaway from the SurveyUSA polls in these districts based on the numbers as they were released was that Steve Driehaus and Baron Hill were in big trouble and Tim Bishop was in the most trouble he's been in in quite a long time. Reweight the numbers for age and while the numbers improve for the Democrats, I don't think the overall conclusions do. And I'm not surprised, because I rarely find when we weight for age that it has an impact of more than 2-3 points on the topline numbers. I may see a younger electorate than SurveyUSA does, but I don't think its impact on those poll results is that great.
An update on our VA-5 Poll
Despite the heavy snowfall in some parts of VA-5 we got a pretty good response on our poll there over the weekend. But because some portions of the district, particularly around Charlottesville, lost power at one time or another we're going to keep doing callbacks through Wednesday just to be on the safe side. Expect results on Thursday.
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