Tom Corbett continues to look like a strong favorite to be the next Governor of Pennsylvania, leading Dan Onorato 48-35 in our newest poll.
Corbett has a massive lead with independents (52-20), is winning over an unusually high number of Democrats (22%), and has his party pretty well unified around him (74-10). Add to that a Democratic base in the state that's less than excited about voting this year and it's the equation for a double digit lead.
Both candidates continue to be relatively unknown, suggesting there's a potential for things to get tighter if voters find Onorato more appealing than Corbett once they do tune in. 44% have not yet formed an opinion about Corbett and 41% are ambivalent toward Onorato. In an unusual finding for this election cycle when voters don't much like any of their candidates, both Corbett and Onorato have net positive favorability numbers. 33% have a favorable opinion of Corbett to 23% unfavorable and 30% see Onorato favorably to 28% negative.
Casting a very large shadow over this race is the unpopularity of outgoing Governor Ed Rendell. Only 27% of likely voters for this fall approve of the job he's doing while 63% are unhappy. Rendell's barely in positive territory even among Democrats at 45/42 and he's pretty universally disliked by Republicans (8/85) and independents (23/61.) Rendell's unpopularity can't be at all helpful for Onorato's chances. Swing voters aren't likely to choose another Democrat if they think the current one's doing a bad job, and Democrats' lack of enthusiasm about voting this year could certainly have something to do with their lukewarmness toward their party's present Governor.
Onorato's personal numbers are better than those of most Democratic candidates across the country this year but all the factors beyond his control in this race are making it difficult for him to stay competitive.
Full results here
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Looking at the Republican Candidate Field
Barack Obama's decline in popularity over the last year has received a lot of attention. What hasn't gotten as much is that all four of the leading potential 2012 Republican Presidential candidates have also seen their favorability numbers take a hit during that period of time.
Obama's decline since our August 2009 national poll is 11 points. A year ago he was at a +10 net approval (52/42) and now he's at -1 (47/48).
The Republican whose favorability has really fallen during that same time period, to a greater extent even than Obama, is Mike Huckabee. He had a +17 favorability a year ago (45/28) and that's dropped 19 points to -2 at 32/34. Huckabee's still pretty popular with Republicans but he's taken a dramatic hit with independents from +24 at 48/24 to nearly a mirror opposite at -14 (24/38). Huckabee's gotten swept up in the same dislike of any and all politicians by independent voters that many folks running for office this year have. All the time spent at Fox News isn't doing much for his numbers with Democrats either. Last August he had an unusually high favorability level across party lines at 26% but that's now been cut in half to 13%.
Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich have seen identical 8 point drops in their favorability numbers, pretty similar to what Obama's encountered. Palin was at -9 (40/49) and is now at -17 (37/54). Gingrich was at -9 as well (33/42) and is also now at -17 (31/48). Palin and Gingrich, like Huckabee, are steady with Republicans but have taken a hit with Democrats and independents.
The Republican leader seeing the smallest erosion in his poll numbers since last August is Mitt Romney. He was at +3 a year ago (37/34) and is now at -2 (35/37). Romney's actually improved his favorability with Republicans from 52% to 57% but with Democrats he's dropped from 23% seeing him positively to 16% and with independents from 40% to 34%.
The shift in Romney's numbers over the last years raises an important question for the 2012 GOP nomination process: does building up your popularity with Republicans necessitate hurting it with independents and Democrats? For folks like Sharron Angle and Rand Paul we've found the answer to be yes and it will be interestingly to see if the Republican Presidential campaign similarly produces a weakened general election candidate.
August 2009 numbers here, August 2010 numbers here
Obama's decline since our August 2009 national poll is 11 points. A year ago he was at a +10 net approval (52/42) and now he's at -1 (47/48).
The Republican whose favorability has really fallen during that same time period, to a greater extent even than Obama, is Mike Huckabee. He had a +17 favorability a year ago (45/28) and that's dropped 19 points to -2 at 32/34. Huckabee's still pretty popular with Republicans but he's taken a dramatic hit with independents from +24 at 48/24 to nearly a mirror opposite at -14 (24/38). Huckabee's gotten swept up in the same dislike of any and all politicians by independent voters that many folks running for office this year have. All the time spent at Fox News isn't doing much for his numbers with Democrats either. Last August he had an unusually high favorability level across party lines at 26% but that's now been cut in half to 13%.
Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich have seen identical 8 point drops in their favorability numbers, pretty similar to what Obama's encountered. Palin was at -9 (40/49) and is now at -17 (37/54). Gingrich was at -9 as well (33/42) and is also now at -17 (31/48). Palin and Gingrich, like Huckabee, are steady with Republicans but have taken a hit with Democrats and independents.
The Republican leader seeing the smallest erosion in his poll numbers since last August is Mitt Romney. He was at +3 a year ago (37/34) and is now at -2 (35/37). Romney's actually improved his favorability with Republicans from 52% to 57% but with Democrats he's dropped from 23% seeing him positively to 16% and with independents from 40% to 34%.
The shift in Romney's numbers over the last years raises an important question for the 2012 GOP nomination process: does building up your popularity with Republicans necessitate hurting it with independents and Democrats? For folks like Sharron Angle and Rand Paul we've found the answer to be yes and it will be interestingly to see if the Republican Presidential campaign similarly produces a weakened general election candidate.
August 2009 numbers here, August 2010 numbers here
GOP favored in Illinois Gov
Pat Quinn's approval rating is 23% and when it comes to the Illinois Governor's race that's about all you need to know. Despite being largely unknown and not particularly well liked Bill Brady leads with 39% to 30% for Quinn and 11% for Green Party candidate Rich Whitney, continuing his path toward becoming one of the most unlikely big state Governors in recent history.
Brady is winning 80% of Republicans while only 60% of Democrats are committed to Quinn. Perhaps most remarkable is the numbers among independents- Brady leads with 40% with Whitney second at 19% and Quinn finishing all the way back in third at 15%.
There's certainly still room for Quinn to come back but it's going to depend on whether people vote based on their feelings about the candidates themselves or just choose on party. Among the undecideds 50% are Democrats to only 16% who are Republicans and 67% of them voted for Barack Obama to just 21% who voted for John McCain. Usually you would expect that Democratic leaning crop of undecideds to come home and tighten the race...except that they give Quinn only an 8% approval rating with 49% of them disapproving of him. Getting the votes of Democrats who dislike him is the only way Quinn can pull it out but right now those folks aren't sure what they're going to do.
53% of voters disapprove of Quinn. He has only a 40% approval rating even with voters of his own party and Republicans (7/81) and independents (17/60) are pretty universal in their dislike of him. Brady isn't exactly setting the world on fire either. The largest group of voters, at 45%, have no opinion about him. Among those who do it's a slightly negative one with 25% seeing him favorably and 30% unfavorably. But at the end of the day the main thing Brady has going for him is that he's not Pat Quinn and that's good enough to give him a solid lead less than three months out from the election.
Full results here
Brady is winning 80% of Republicans while only 60% of Democrats are committed to Quinn. Perhaps most remarkable is the numbers among independents- Brady leads with 40% with Whitney second at 19% and Quinn finishing all the way back in third at 15%.
There's certainly still room for Quinn to come back but it's going to depend on whether people vote based on their feelings about the candidates themselves or just choose on party. Among the undecideds 50% are Democrats to only 16% who are Republicans and 67% of them voted for Barack Obama to just 21% who voted for John McCain. Usually you would expect that Democratic leaning crop of undecideds to come home and tighten the race...except that they give Quinn only an 8% approval rating with 49% of them disapproving of him. Getting the votes of Democrats who dislike him is the only way Quinn can pull it out but right now those folks aren't sure what they're going to do.
53% of voters disapprove of Quinn. He has only a 40% approval rating even with voters of his own party and Republicans (7/81) and independents (17/60) are pretty universal in their dislike of him. Brady isn't exactly setting the world on fire either. The largest group of voters, at 45%, have no opinion about him. Among those who do it's a slightly negative one with 25% seeing him favorably and 30% unfavorably. But at the end of the day the main thing Brady has going for him is that he's not Pat Quinn and that's good enough to give him a solid lead less than three months out from the election.
Full results here
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Blunt, Burr, and the Bailout
One of the most interesting things to watch in the last few months of Campaign 2010 is whether Democrats can pick up any currently Republican held Senate seats. Two of their best opportunities to do that are in Missouri and North Carolina and those races have a common thread- the Republican candidate leads but may also run into trouble down the stretch answering for an unpopular vote on the bailout.
Our Missouri poll for Daily Kos released today found Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan by 7 points. But it also found that 61% of voters in the state were less likely to support a candidate who had voted for the bailout to only 26% who said that would have a positive impact on their vote.
It was a similar story on our most recent North Carolina poll. Richard Burr led Elaine Marshall by a couple points but at the same time 58% of voters said they were less likely to vote for someone who had supported the bailout to only 25% who said more likely.
The big question now is whether Democrats can take advantage of these unpopular votes. There are three main places I can see it helping:
-The Undecideds. In the Missouri race 74% of undecideds said a candidate supporting the bailout would have a negative impact on their vote to only 6% positive. It's a similar story in North Carolina where 57% of the undecideds say less likely to only 20% more likely. If Blunt and Burr can be turned into the bailout candidates in those races it may help bring the folks who haven't made up their minds yet into the Democratic column.
-Make Republicans Depressed. The most interesting thing about the bailout numbers in Missouri and North Carolina is the voters who react most negatively to it are the ones supporting Blunt and Burr who supported it in Congress. Among Blunt voters 88% are less likely to vote for someone who voted for the bailout to 5% more likely and among Burr voters it's 85% less likely and 7% more likely. I don't know how many of those voters can be converted into the Democratic column but relentless attack on the issue could leave GOP voters unhappy with their candidates and staying home, which might help with the Democrats' enthusiasm gap issues.
-Flip Independents. One of Robin Carnahan and Elaine Marshall's common problems is a deficit with independents. Carnahan trails Blunt by 5 with them while Marshall is down 19. But those same voters react extremely negatively to the bailout- 19/66 in North Carolina and 25/61 in Missouri. If Carnahan and Marshall can convince independent voters, who are madder at the system than anyone, that they are the alternatives to business as usual in Washington it could go a long way.
Missouri and North Carolina are going to be very tough races for Democrats. But they do have a good issue to work with.
Our Missouri poll for Daily Kos released today found Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan by 7 points. But it also found that 61% of voters in the state were less likely to support a candidate who had voted for the bailout to only 26% who said that would have a positive impact on their vote.
It was a similar story on our most recent North Carolina poll. Richard Burr led Elaine Marshall by a couple points but at the same time 58% of voters said they were less likely to vote for someone who had supported the bailout to only 25% who said more likely.
The big question now is whether Democrats can take advantage of these unpopular votes. There are three main places I can see it helping:
-The Undecideds. In the Missouri race 74% of undecideds said a candidate supporting the bailout would have a negative impact on their vote to only 6% positive. It's a similar story in North Carolina where 57% of the undecideds say less likely to only 20% more likely. If Blunt and Burr can be turned into the bailout candidates in those races it may help bring the folks who haven't made up their minds yet into the Democratic column.
-Make Republicans Depressed. The most interesting thing about the bailout numbers in Missouri and North Carolina is the voters who react most negatively to it are the ones supporting Blunt and Burr who supported it in Congress. Among Blunt voters 88% are less likely to vote for someone who voted for the bailout to 5% more likely and among Burr voters it's 85% less likely and 7% more likely. I don't know how many of those voters can be converted into the Democratic column but relentless attack on the issue could leave GOP voters unhappy with their candidates and staying home, which might help with the Democrats' enthusiasm gap issues.
-Flip Independents. One of Robin Carnahan and Elaine Marshall's common problems is a deficit with independents. Carnahan trails Blunt by 5 with them while Marshall is down 19. But those same voters react extremely negatively to the bailout- 19/66 in North Carolina and 25/61 in Missouri. If Carnahan and Marshall can convince independent voters, who are madder at the system than anyone, that they are the alternatives to business as usual in Washington it could go a long way.
Missouri and North Carolina are going to be very tough races for Democrats. But they do have a good issue to work with.
Giannoulias has a small lead
In a race pitting two of the weakest Senate candidates in the country Alexi Giannoulias continues to hold a small lead over Mark Kirk, 37-35, with Green Party candidate LeAlan Jones pulling 9%. Voters in the heavily Democratic state it seems would narrowly prefer a Democratic candidate they don't like to a Republican candidate they don't like.
Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can't win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn't doing that right now. He's getting only 5%. Kirk's getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it's going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.
Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.
These polls results are premised on an extremely depressed Democratic electorate. Those surveyed report having voted for Barack Obama by only 9 points, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state in 2008. That's a dropoff even worse than what Democrats saw in Virginia last year and the fact that Kirk is behind even when that's the case does not bode well if Democratic interest in this election gets any better over the next three months. And it's not as if Illinois voters just don't know Giannoulias yet- they know him and they know they don't like him and they still give him a small lead.
In Kirk Republicans got the candidate they wanted in this race. But it looks more and more like they might have wanted the wrong candidate. There's no way with everything that's happened to Giannoulias since the last couple weeks before the primary that he should be ahead in this race. But he's hanging on...
Full results here
Kirk does have a big lead with independents, 36-20. But you can't win as a Republican in Illinois without winning over a fair number of Democratic voters and Kirk just isn't doing that right now. He's getting only 5%. Kirk's getting 74% of the Republican vote while Giannoulias is getting 72% of the Democratic vote and it's going to be very hard for Kirk to win unless the party unity gap ends up being bigger than that.
Both candidates continue to be very unpopular. Giannoulias' favorability is 26/42 and Kirk's is 26/34. Independents have a negative opinion of both of them, and each of them is viewed more unfavorably by voters of the opposite party than they are favorably by their own party base. Only 51% of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Giannoulias and just 49% of Republicans have a favorable opinion of Kirk so neither contender is doing much to fire up even their partisans.
These polls results are premised on an extremely depressed Democratic electorate. Those surveyed report having voted for Barack Obama by only 9 points, in contrast to his actual 26 point victory in the state in 2008. That's a dropoff even worse than what Democrats saw in Virginia last year and the fact that Kirk is behind even when that's the case does not bode well if Democratic interest in this election gets any better over the next three months. And it's not as if Illinois voters just don't know Giannoulias yet- they know him and they know they don't like him and they still give him a small lead.
In Kirk Republicans got the candidate they wanted in this race. But it looks more and more like they might have wanted the wrong candidate. There's no way with everything that's happened to Giannoulias since the last couple weeks before the primary that he should be ahead in this race. But he's hanging on...
Full results here
Toomey moves ahead in PA-Sen race
With Joe Sestak's victory in the Democratic primary and the poll bump that came with it now three months in the rear view mirror, Pat Toomey has taken a 45-36 lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. That's a big change from the tie PPP saw in a June survey of the race but pretty similar to the solid Toomey lead our April survey showed.
Toomey's winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:
-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.
-He's benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.
-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state.
The biggest key to the race is probably Obama's considerably fallen popularity. His approval rating stands at only 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him, one of the biggest declines from 2008 performance we've seen for him anywhere in the country. Part of Obama's low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places. Our national poll last week found only 7% of Obama voters are now unhappy with the job he's doing but in Pennsylvania the figure is 15%. Toomey has a 14 point lead with those disaffected Obama voters, showing the extent to which those voters moving away from Obama are moving away from the Democratic Party in general.
There is indeed almost a total correlation between how voters feel about Obama and how they're planning to cast their ballots this fall. With those who approve of Obama, Sestak leads 75-6. But with those who disapprove Toomey's ahead 74-8 and with that being the much larger group it gives him the overall lead.
This may represent somewhat of a low point for Sestak. The undecided voters lean Democratic (they voted 52-36 for Obama) and it's hard to imagine the level of Democratic interest in the election going anywhere but up. But for now Toomey's in a pretty good position.
Full results here
Toomey's winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:
-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.
-He's benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.
-This is our first poll of the race explicitly surveying likely voters and given the considerably greater enthusiasm on the Republican side we're seeing an electorate in the state that voted for John McCain by a point in 2008, in contrast to Barack Obama's actual 10 point victory in the state.
The biggest key to the race is probably Obama's considerably fallen popularity. His approval rating stands at only 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him, one of the biggest declines from 2008 performance we've seen for him anywhere in the country. Part of Obama's low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places. Our national poll last week found only 7% of Obama voters are now unhappy with the job he's doing but in Pennsylvania the figure is 15%. Toomey has a 14 point lead with those disaffected Obama voters, showing the extent to which those voters moving away from Obama are moving away from the Democratic Party in general.
There is indeed almost a total correlation between how voters feel about Obama and how they're planning to cast their ballots this fall. With those who approve of Obama, Sestak leads 75-6. But with those who disapprove Toomey's ahead 74-8 and with that being the much larger group it gives him the overall lead.
This may represent somewhat of a low point for Sestak. The undecided voters lean Democratic (they voted 52-36 for Obama) and it's hard to imagine the level of Democratic interest in the election going anywhere but up. But for now Toomey's in a pretty good position.
Full results here
Monday, August 16, 2010
Illinois and Pennsylvania Polls
With less than three months to go until the election we switched over to likely voters for this week's polls and given the low level of Democratic interest in the election that not surprisingly led to more Republican leaning electorates in the Illinois and Pennsylvania polls we'll be releasing tomorrow than when we polled those states in June.
Our June Pennsylvania poll was based on a D+8 electorate, this week's poll is based on a D+2 electorate. The folks we surveyed in Pennsylvania this week voted for John McCain by 1 point, while Barack Obama actually won the state by 10 points in 2008.
We're seeing an even worse dropoff in Democratic interest in Ilinois. Our June poll there was based on a D+13 electorate, this week's poll is based on a D+9 electorate. The folks we surveyed in Illinois this week supported Barack Obama by 9 points in in 2008 in contrast to his actual 25 point victory there.
That diminishing of Democratic interest in Illinois is probably the worst we've seen anywhere so far in this election cycle but the party's ticket there is pretty clearly the worst they have anywhere in the country too so it's not all that surprising.
The dropoff in Democratic turnout these numbers suggest is similar to what happened to Democrats in Virginia last year, but worse than what they saw in Massachusetts and New Jersey where the problem was not so much Democrats not showing up as it was Democrats showing up and voting for Chris Christie or Scott Brown.
One thing I've noticed throughout this year is that Democratic interest is particularly depressed in states that have unpopular Democratic Governors and Illinois where Pat Quinn has a 23% approval rating and Pennsylvania where Ed Rendell has a 27% approval rating certainly fit the bill. Other states where we saw very low levels of Democratic interest even before switching over to explicitly polling likely voters were Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin where Jennifer Granholm, Chet Culver, and Jim Doyle are all among the least popular Governors in the country (if you're seeing a Midwestern theme here you should, the Big Ten states may be the most brutal of anywhere in the country for Democrats this year in terms of lost House seats and Governorships.)
One final note: we do not weight our polls for party or 2008 vote or anything like that- just fixed demographics of gender, race, and age. So the level of Democratic dropoff we show is not determined by our guesses, but by who says they're going to vote this fall and answers our polls.
We'll have the Senate numbers in both Illinois and Pennsylvania out tomorrow and the Governor numbers on Wednesday in each state.
Our June Pennsylvania poll was based on a D+8 electorate, this week's poll is based on a D+2 electorate. The folks we surveyed in Pennsylvania this week voted for John McCain by 1 point, while Barack Obama actually won the state by 10 points in 2008.
We're seeing an even worse dropoff in Democratic interest in Ilinois. Our June poll there was based on a D+13 electorate, this week's poll is based on a D+9 electorate. The folks we surveyed in Illinois this week supported Barack Obama by 9 points in in 2008 in contrast to his actual 25 point victory there.
That diminishing of Democratic interest in Illinois is probably the worst we've seen anywhere so far in this election cycle but the party's ticket there is pretty clearly the worst they have anywhere in the country too so it's not all that surprising.
The dropoff in Democratic turnout these numbers suggest is similar to what happened to Democrats in Virginia last year, but worse than what they saw in Massachusetts and New Jersey where the problem was not so much Democrats not showing up as it was Democrats showing up and voting for Chris Christie or Scott Brown.
One thing I've noticed throughout this year is that Democratic interest is particularly depressed in states that have unpopular Democratic Governors and Illinois where Pat Quinn has a 23% approval rating and Pennsylvania where Ed Rendell has a 27% approval rating certainly fit the bill. Other states where we saw very low levels of Democratic interest even before switching over to explicitly polling likely voters were Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin where Jennifer Granholm, Chet Culver, and Jim Doyle are all among the least popular Governors in the country (if you're seeing a Midwestern theme here you should, the Big Ten states may be the most brutal of anywhere in the country for Democrats this year in terms of lost House seats and Governorships.)
One final note: we do not weight our polls for party or 2008 vote or anything like that- just fixed demographics of gender, race, and age. So the level of Democratic dropoff we show is not determined by our guesses, but by who says they're going to vote this fall and answers our polls.
We'll have the Senate numbers in both Illinois and Pennsylvania out tomorrow and the Governor numbers on Wednesday in each state.
Republican Jumble
The field for the 2012 Republican nomination is more jumbled up than ever in PPP's monthly polling on it with the leading four candidates all within two points of each other. Mike Huckabee's at 23%, Mitt Romney at 22%, and Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin at 21%. Ron Paul is a distant fifth at 4%.
This month's poll makes it more clear than ever that there's plenty of room for more candidates to evolve into serious 2012 Republican contenders. Only 54% of those surveyed said they want one of the current front runners to be their nominee while 24% explicitly said they wanted someone outside of the Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich/Palin/Paul quintet to be the nominee and the other 22% said they weren't sure. Between support being evenly divided among the four leading contenders and almost half of the GOP electorate open to none of the above there's plenty of room for a Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels or Rick Santorum or whoever else to become a real factor in the race.
The essential problem for a potential Palin Presidential bid comes through yet again in this poll: the disconnect between her popularity with Republican voters and their willingness to let her be their nominee. At 76% favorability she's running 11 points ahead of anyone else but still stuck in the muddle on the horse race. Gingrich is next most popular at 65% favorability followed by Huckabee at 62%, Romney at 57%, and Paul at 36%.
We've said it time and again but it continues to be true- there is no real front runner in this race.
Full results here
This month's poll makes it more clear than ever that there's plenty of room for more candidates to evolve into serious 2012 Republican contenders. Only 54% of those surveyed said they want one of the current front runners to be their nominee while 24% explicitly said they wanted someone outside of the Huckabee/Romney/Gingrich/Palin/Paul quintet to be the nominee and the other 22% said they weren't sure. Between support being evenly divided among the four leading contenders and almost half of the GOP electorate open to none of the above there's plenty of room for a Tim Pawlenty or Mitch Daniels or Rick Santorum or whoever else to become a real factor in the race.
The essential problem for a potential Palin Presidential bid comes through yet again in this poll: the disconnect between her popularity with Republican voters and their willingness to let her be their nominee. At 76% favorability she's running 11 points ahead of anyone else but still stuck in the muddle on the horse race. Gingrich is next most popular at 65% favorability followed by Huckabee at 62%, Romney at 57%, and Paul at 36%.
We've said it time and again but it continues to be true- there is no real front runner in this race.
Full results here
Friday, August 13, 2010
Weed Smokers for Palin?
We've been breaking everything on our national poll this week down by whether respondents have ever smoked Marijuana before and here's one I wasn't expecting: Sarah Palin is the top choice for the 2012 GOP nomination among Republicans who have.
Granted it's a sample size of just 83 and her lead is within the margin of error but it's still kind of amusing.
Among Republicans who say they've smoked Marijuana:
Palin 25
Gingrich 22
Huckabee 17
Romney 17
Paul 8
Among Republicans who say they have not smoked Marijuana:
Huckabee 24
Romney 23
Gingrich 21
Palin 21
Paul 3
We'll have the full results out Monday.
Granted it's a sample size of just 83 and her lead is within the margin of error but it's still kind of amusing.
Among Republicans who say they've smoked Marijuana:
Palin 25
Gingrich 22
Huckabee 17
Romney 17
Paul 8
Among Republicans who say they have not smoked Marijuana:
Huckabee 24
Romney 23
Gingrich 21
Palin 21
Paul 3
We'll have the full results out Monday.
GOP takes generic lead
Republicans lead the generic Congressional ballot on our newest poll, 45-42.
There are two things driving the GOP's success: a more unified party than the Democrats and an advantage with independent voters. 89% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party's candidate for the House, while only 81% of Democrats say the same about theirs. Independents also lean toward the GOP by a 37-33 margin.
The GOP lead comes despite the fact that Congressional Republicans have only a 24/61 approval rating. GOP leadership has only a 40% approval rating even with its own party's voters. If Republicans do indeed win this fall it will be interesting to see if the party realizes that victory came in spite of rather than because of the current leadership, and if any changes are made. That could be critical to Republican chances of keeping the House for more than 2 years.
The undecided voters on the generic ballot tell an interesting story. They voted for Barack Obama by a 46/32 margin. But they now disapprove of him 38/48. And they disapprove of Congressional Republicans even more, 9/65. They dislike Congressional Republicans more than Obama- but will that be as important a factor in how they vote this fall? Hard to say at this point.
Full results here
There are two things driving the GOP's success: a more unified party than the Democrats and an advantage with independent voters. 89% of Republicans are committed to supporting their party's candidate for the House, while only 81% of Democrats say the same about theirs. Independents also lean toward the GOP by a 37-33 margin.
The GOP lead comes despite the fact that Congressional Republicans have only a 24/61 approval rating. GOP leadership has only a 40% approval rating even with its own party's voters. If Republicans do indeed win this fall it will be interesting to see if the party realizes that victory came in spite of rather than because of the current leadership, and if any changes are made. That could be critical to Republican chances of keeping the House for more than 2 years.
The undecided voters on the generic ballot tell an interesting story. They voted for Barack Obama by a 46/32 margin. But they now disapprove of him 38/48. And they disapprove of Congressional Republicans even more, 9/65. They dislike Congressional Republicans more than Obama- but will that be as important a factor in how they vote this fall? Hard to say at this point.
Full results here
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