It's pretty much a given that the Tea Party cost Republicans the Senate seats in Nevada and Colorado this week. We have some data from our final polls in those states that sheds further light on that.
Our final Nevada poll found Harry Reid behind 47-46. It also found that in a hypothetical match up with Danny Tarkanian Reid would have trailed 54-39. Obviously we underestimated Reid's standing against Sharron Angle but given that he polled 14 points worse against Tarkanian it seems pretty safe to say that even with his 5-6 point victory Tuesday he would have lost by a similar margin had Tarkanian been the nominee instead.
The big difference between how Angle and Tarkanian would have fared against Reid is with independents. We found Angle leading Reid by 14 points with them...but we found Tarkanian up by a whooping 40 point margin, 66-26. There were a lot of independent voters in Nevada who were inclined to vote against Reid but just thought Angle was a step too far.
In Colorado the difference is not quite as stark but it still seems likely that nominating Jane Norton instead of Ken Buck would have given Republicans a 1 or 2 point victory in the state instead of a 1 point loss. Our final poll found Buck leading Michael Bennet by a single point. It also found that Norton would lead Bennet by 4 points in a hypothetical contest. Norton performing 3 points better than Buck against Bennet is consistent with our polling over the course of the entire cycle- across all of our pre-primary Colorado polls Norton did on average 2 points better than Buck. Given the razor thin margin of Bennet's victory the outcome may well have been flipped with Norton as the nominee.
The reason Norton would have done better is the same reason Tarkanian would have- better appeal to independents. Bennet's approval numbers with independents were pretty miserable- and we found Buck with a 4 point lead among them. But we found Norton up 11 points on Bennet with them.
Obviously you can never say exactly how things would have unfolded had Tarkanian and Norton been the nominees. Maybe months of attacks on them would have led to the same final results. I doubt it though. Reid and Bennet are not popular Senators. They would have been defeated by mainstream Republicans...but GOP primary voters overplayed their hands.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Looking Forward
Barack Obama won the national popular vote by about 7 points in 2008. Republicans look to have won the national House vote by about 7 point this year. One big question about that 14 point shift- how much of it was Democrats going to the Republicans and how much of it was Democrats staying home?
The answer is about half and half. The national exit poll showed those who voted Tuesday split their votes for President evenly in 2008, 45% for Barack Obama and 45% for John McCain. If you take the breakdown of how they voted and weight it to the actual 53-46 win Obama had in 2008 you get Republicans up by just a single point in the House vote, 49-48. So about 8 of the points of movement in 2010 can be attributed to voters changing sides (13% of Obama voters chose Republicans while only 7% of McCain voters chose Democrats) and the other six can be attributed to the Democratic turnout dropoff.
Those numbers have to be at least a little reassuring for Democrats. Most of those drop off voters are probably going to be back in 2012, especially after a couple of years watching how the Republicans in the House handle themselves. The fact that Democrats would be running even nationally at this very low point for their party if their folks turned out bodes well for the next election if there's even a small amount of warming up to the President between now and then.
The answer is about half and half. The national exit poll showed those who voted Tuesday split their votes for President evenly in 2008, 45% for Barack Obama and 45% for John McCain. If you take the breakdown of how they voted and weight it to the actual 53-46 win Obama had in 2008 you get Republicans up by just a single point in the House vote, 49-48. So about 8 of the points of movement in 2010 can be attributed to voters changing sides (13% of Obama voters chose Republicans while only 7% of McCain voters chose Democrats) and the other six can be attributed to the Democratic turnout dropoff.
Those numbers have to be at least a little reassuring for Democrats. Most of those drop off voters are probably going to be back in 2012, especially after a couple of years watching how the Republicans in the House handle themselves. The fact that Democrats would be running even nationally at this very low point for their party if their folks turned out bodes well for the next election if there's even a small amount of warming up to the President between now and then.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Governor Candidate Favorabilities
Below is a chart looking at the favorabilities (or approvals for current office holders) of the 31 Gubernatorial candidates included on our final 18 polls. Some observations:
-The most popular candidates are Brian Sandoval, Tom Corbett, Sean Parnell, John Hickenlooper, and Eliot Cutler.
-The least popular candidates are Dan Maes, Libby Mitchell, Pat Quinn, Rick Scott, and Tom Emmer.
-The most popular candidates who are probably going to lose anyway are Cutler, Ethan Berkowitz, and Bill White.
-The least popular candidates who are probably going to win anyway or at least have a 50/50 chance are Paul LePage, Jerry Brown, and Bill Brady. Rick Scott and Tom Emmer have pretty good chances at winning despite low favorability numbers as well.
Here's the full rundown:
-The most popular candidates are Brian Sandoval, Tom Corbett, Sean Parnell, John Hickenlooper, and Eliot Cutler.
-The least popular candidates are Dan Maes, Libby Mitchell, Pat Quinn, Rick Scott, and Tom Emmer.
-The most popular candidates who are probably going to lose anyway are Cutler, Ethan Berkowitz, and Bill White.
-The least popular candidates who are probably going to win anyway or at least have a 50/50 chance are Paul LePage, Jerry Brown, and Bill Brady. Rick Scott and Tom Emmer have pretty good chances at winning despite low favorability numbers as well.
Here's the full rundown:
| Candidate | Favorability/Approval | Spread |
| Brian Sandoval | 56/33 | +23 |
| Tom Corbett | 51/32 | +19 |
| Sean Parnell | 51/35 | +16 |
| John Hickenlooper | 51/38 | +13 |
| Eliot Cutler | 46/33 | +13 |
| John Lynch | 51/39 | +12 |
| Scott Walker | 47/39 | +8 |
| Ethan Berkowitz | 46/39 | +7 |
| Bill White | 46/39 | +7 |
| Tom Foley | 41/38 | +3 |
| Alex Sink | 44/42 | +2 |
| Tom Tancredo | 44/43 | +1 |
| John Kasich | 43/42 | +1 |
| Rick Perry | 45/45 | Even |
| Dan Malloy | 39/40 | -1 |
| Tom Horner | 35/36 | -1 |
| Mark Dayton | 43/45 | -2 |
| Tom Barrett | 41/43 | -2 |
| John Stephen | 37/40 | -3 |
| Bill Brady | 39/45 | -6 |
| Jerry Brown | 42/49 | -7 |
| Dan Onorato | 37/45 | -8 |
| Ted Strickland | 41/50 | -9 |
| Paul LePage | 42/51 | -9 |
| Rory Reid | 39/51 | -12 |
| Meg Whitman | 38/50 | -12 |
| Tom Emmer | 37/51 | -14 |
| Rick Scott | 34/54 | -20 |
| Pat Quinn | 32/54 | -22 |
| Libby Mitchell | 31/56 | -25 |
| Dan Maes | 11/66 | -55 |
Senate Candidate Favorabilities
Below is a chart looking at the favorabilities (Or approvals for current office holders) of the 32 Senate candidates included on our final 18 polls. Some observations:
-The most popular candidates are Joe Manchin, Rob Portman, Kelly Ayotte, Scott McAdams, and Ron Johnson.
-The least popular candidates are Joe Miller, Jack Conway, Paul Hodes, Lee Fisher, and Lisa Murkowski.
-The most popular candidates who are probably going to lose anyway are McAdams, Kendrick Meek, and Elaine Marshall.
-The least popular candidates who are probably going to win anyway are Miller, Barbara Boxer, and whoever emerges as the winner between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.
-When you see Portman, Ayotte, and Johnson at the top of this list while simultaneously seeing Joe Miller at the bottom and Sharron Angle and Ken Buck pretty far down as well it's a reminder that Republicans are still a lot better off with mainstream candidates than Tea Party ones, even if many of those Tea Party Republicans are still going to pull it off this year because the political climate is so bad for Democrats.
What else do you take away from these?
-The most popular candidates are Joe Manchin, Rob Portman, Kelly Ayotte, Scott McAdams, and Ron Johnson.
-The least popular candidates are Joe Miller, Jack Conway, Paul Hodes, Lee Fisher, and Lisa Murkowski.
-The most popular candidates who are probably going to lose anyway are McAdams, Kendrick Meek, and Elaine Marshall.
-The least popular candidates who are probably going to win anyway are Miller, Barbara Boxer, and whoever emerges as the winner between Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.
-When you see Portman, Ayotte, and Johnson at the top of this list while simultaneously seeing Joe Miller at the bottom and Sharron Angle and Ken Buck pretty far down as well it's a reminder that Republicans are still a lot better off with mainstream candidates than Tea Party ones, even if many of those Tea Party Republicans are still going to pull it off this year because the political climate is so bad for Democrats.
What else do you take away from these?
| Candidate | Favorability/Approval | Spread |
| Joe Manchin | 70/22 | +48 |
| Rob Portman | 50/25 | +25 |
| Kelly Ayotte | 57/34 | +23 |
| Scott McAdams | 50/30 | +20 |
| Ron Johnson | 51/35 | +16 |
| Kendrick Meek | 42/32 | +10 |
| Marco Rubio | 51/41 | +10 |
| Richard Blumenthal | 50/40 | +10 |
| Richard Burr | 45/39 | +6 |
| Elaine Marshall | 40/35 | +5 |
| Pat Toomey | 45/40 | +5 |
| Rand Paul | 48/43 | +5 |
| Dino Rossi | 45/46 | -1 |
| Charlie Crist | 41/43 | -2 |
| Carly Fiorina | 42/44 | -2 |
| Ken Buck | 44/48 | -4 |
| Joe Sestak | 39/43 | -4 |
| Russ Feingold | 44/48 | -4 |
| Mark Kirk | 39/45 | -6 |
| John Raese | 41/47 | -6 |
| Patty Murray | 44/51 | -7 |
| Michael Bennet | 39/47 | -8 |
| Sharron Angle | 44/53 | -9 |
| Barbara Boxer | 40/50 | -10 |
| Harry Reid | 39/51 | -12 |
| Alexi Giannoulias | 42/55 | -12 |
| Linda McMahon | 35/49 | -13 |
| Lisa Murkowski | 37/52 | -15 |
| Lee Fisher | 37/53 | -16 |
| Paul Hodes | 34/50 | -16 |
| Jack Conway | 34/52 | -18 |
| Joe Miller | 36/59 | -23 |
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