For Palin there's no place like home...in a bad way

It's a well known fact that Sarah Palin is the most unpopular major political figure in the country...one thing that may be less well known is that one of the states where voters have the dimmest view of her is her own home state of Alaska.

We've polled Palin's favorability in ten states over the last couple months. In Alaska just 33% of voters have a favorable opinion of her to 58% with a negative one. The only place where fewer voters see her positively than her own home state is dark blue Massachusetts.

Democrats hate Palin in Alaska but they hate her everywhere so there's nothing newsworthy about that. What makes her home state numbers unusually bad is that Republicans see her favorably by only a 60/30 margin. In most places she's closer to 80% favorability within her own party. Also while independents don't like her anywhere their level of animosity in Alaska is unusually large- 65% unfavorable to only 25% with a favorable opinion.

It's not a coincidence that the 35% of the vote Joe Miller appears to have received in the Alaska Senate race is almost identical to the 33% who have a favorable opinion of Palin. Miller allowed himself to practically become a surrogate for Palin and while that was good for letting him pull off a primary victory by the slimmest of margins it was not so good for his prospects in the general election.

Palin's unpopularity in Alaska is an interesting sidebar but ultimately pretty irrelevant to a possible 2012 Presidential bid. What's more relevant is that a majority of voters in every single state we have polled so far on the 2012 race has an unfavorable opinion of her. And her average favorability in the Bush/Obama states of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia that are most likely essential to Republican chances of retaking the White House is 36/56. Democrats can only hope...

Here are Palin's state by state favorability numbers:

State	Favorability
Montana	44/50
Ohio	37/52
North Carolina	36/57
Florida	36/57
Virginia	35/58
Wisconsin	35/58
Minnesota	35/60
Michigan	34/60
Alaska	33/58
Massachusetts	27/68

First polls of 2011

Unfortunately we're not going to have any more fresh polling before the end of the year...Christmas weekend would not have been the best time to call and interview people...but we will go into the field a week from today with our first pair of polls for 2011.

One of them is definitely going to be a Nevada poll so suggestions on who to poll against John Ensign for both the primary and general elections would be much appreciated. Any other good question ideas for Nevada would be appreciated as well.

As for our second poll we're open to pretty much anything. So give us your suggestions in the comments and we'll pick some finalists and put it to a vote starting Wednesday.

NC voters down on state government

North Carolina voters don't have a particularly favorable view of the legislative Republicans who will take power next month. But they don't like legislative Democrats either, which is why the Republicans were able to gain control last month despite not being popular themselves. Against that backdrop it should come as no surprise that voters have mixed feelings about whether things in the state will be any better with the shift in legislative power.

41% of voters think the state will be better off with Republicans in charge while 37% think things will be worse and 20% see it as about a wash. GOP voters unsurprisingly are pretty enthusiastic- 82% of them think the state of the state will improve with their party in charge. Democrats are pessimistic, although not to the extent Republicans are optimistic- 64% of them think the state will be worse off. And independents are split three ways with 34% thinking things will be better, 31% that they'll be worse, and 30% that they'll stay basically the same.

The ambivalence about whether North Carolina will be better off with Republicans in control of the General Assembly is probably a function of the fact that neither party is seen very favorably by voters in the state. 45% have an unfavorable opinion of legislative Democrats to only 38% with a positive one. The numbers for Republicans aren't much different- 41% see them in a negative light to just 33% with a favorable opinion. Democrats like their party but not the Republicans, Republicans like their party but not the Democrats, and independents don't like either of them.

When you combine the feelings North Carolinians have about both parties in the legislature with the persistent negative feelings toward Bev Perdue, the main thing you can take away is that North Carolina voters just don't like their state government and that cuts across party lines.

The full results of this poll here

Romney sinks in Florida

When PPP first polled Florida Republicans in March about who they wanted as their 2012 nominee 52% of them picked Mitt Romney when given the choices of him, Mike Huckabee (who got 21%), and Sarah Palin (who received 18%).

When PPP next asked Florida Republicans about 2012 in July Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul's names were added into the mix and although Romney maintained the lead it wasn't nearly as strong. He was at 31%, followed by Palin and Gingrich at 23%, Huckabee at 15%, and Paul at 6%.

When PPP asked about it in late October even more names were in the pool and Romney's support declined even further. He was down to 28% with Palin at 22%, Huckabee and Gingrich at 15%, and a variety of other Republicans combining for 8%.

Now Romney's lead in Florida is completely gone. The poll we did last week found him at only 21%, behind Huckabee's 23%, with Gingrich at 18%, Palin at 13%, and others combining for a total of 15%.

Why has Romney fallen so far? I think part of the reason he polled so well earlier in the year is that he was the anti-Palin. Palin's favorability numbers with GOP voters in Florida are a good deal worse than they are most places and Romney did well in those earlier surveys as one of the few named alternatives to her. As more response options were provided in later polls the anti-Palin sentiment was diffused across several candidates and Romney's mile wide but inch deep support declined further and further and further to where it is now.

Romney's chances at the Republican nomination really might be contingent on a small pool of candidates running- the more 'reasonable' folks there are in the mix the worse Romney does because he doesn't have a real solid base of support. If there are 5 'competent' folks who have been Governors or Senators running it may be hard for any of them to break out as a strong alternative to Palin should she make the race.

The full Florida numbers are here

In North Carolina we see a good old log jam with Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin tied at 21%, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney tied at 18%, and the rest of the Republicans combining for 12%. This is another state where Romney's conservative problem rears its head. He has a strong advantage with moderates as 30% of them say he's their top choice with none of the other Republicans rising above 15%. But he posts yet another fourth place finish with conservatives at only 14%, with Palin at 24%, Gingrich at 22%, and Huckabee at only 19%.

North Carolina numbers here

Republicans want Bush, after that no clue

In most of the states where PPP has taken a look ahead to the 2012 Senate race so far, Republican voters really have no clue who they'd like their candidate to be against the Democratic incumbent. Florida is a glaring exception to that rule though: a whooping 72% of GOP voters in the state want Jeb Bush to be their standard bearer against Bill Nelson.

With Bush in the equation none of the other options given get any higher than 6%- that's for perennial candidate Bill McCollum- and once you get past McCollum no one else even tops 3%. Bush's relatively liberal stance for a Republican on immigration isn't giving him any trouble at least yet. The desire for him to be the nominee is even stronger with self identified conservatives at 77% than it is with moderates at 65%.

In all likelihood Florida Republicans will not see their desire for a Bush candidacy fulfilled so we also asked folks who they would want if Bush was not an option. In that scenario there's no consensus at all. Connie Mack IV comes out ahead with a pretty paltry 15% followed by Bill McCollum at 14%, George LeMieux at 11%, Jennifer Carroll at 10%, Mike Haridopolos at 9%, Vern Buchanan at 7%, and Adam Hasner at 3%.

There are two main takeaways from those numbers: the biggest and most obvious is that it couldn't be any more wide open for the GOP Senate nomination- any of these folks could end up winning if they ran and there are a lot more folks than these who could win if they ran too. There's probably nobody else other than Bush who could get into the race and start with an overwhelming lead in the primary.

The other big takeaway is the continued incredible weakness of LeMieux in pretty much all polling. His head start as a Senator for the last year and change has done little to familiarize and endear himself with Florida voters. In the general election part of this poll he did worse against Nelson than Mack and posted a similar margin to Haridopolos who hasn't had the incredible platform of a Senate seat already. Here he's just the third choice of Republican voters in the state amongst a pretty uninspiring group of choices. He may yet prove to be a strong candidate but if his tenure so far has given him any sort of early advantage it's only on fundraising.

Full results here

Obama still looks ok in NC

Barack Obama has improved his standing in North Carolina compared to a month ago and continues to appear to have at least an even money chance of taking the state again in 2012.

46% of voters in the state approve of the job Obama's doing to 49% who disapprove. This is the first time since June PPP has found fewer than half of North Carolinians unhappy with the President's performance. Over the last month he's seen slight increases in his support from conservative Democrats and independent voters, perhaps the two most important groups to his reelection prospects in the state. With Democrats overall his approval is up 3 points from 73% last month to now 76% and with independents he's risen from 40% to now 43%.

Obama is also doing better in hypothetical contests against the leading potential GOP candidates for President than he was a month ago. Mike Huckabee continues to be the one Republican he trails but the 1 point deficit at 46-45 is down from 4 points a month ago. Obama leads the rest of the top Republicans- it's 46-43 over Mitt Romney, compared to a tie a month ago, 48-42 over Newt Gingrich, compared to a 1 point lead a month ago, and 52-38 over Sarah Palin, compared to a 5 point lead a month ago.

Only Huckabee elicits a particularly positive response from Tar Heel voters. 43% have a favorable opinion of him to 34% with a negative one. The remaining Republicans are viewed pretty dimly- Romney's favorability spread is 34/39, Gingrich's is 35/47, and Palin's is 36/57.

One thing that may be contributing to Obama's improved standing in the state is the tax deal he cut with Republicans in Congress earlier this month. It's broadly popular with North Carolina voters- 51% support it to only 35% who are opposed. What may be more important for Obama though is who supports it. His party's liberal base is not real happy with it, but not so displeased that they're turning away from Obama. Meanwhile it's popular with the conservative Democrats who can go either way in Presidential elections and it also seems to have given a boost to Obama with independents who tend to want to see their elected officials work across party lines.

It's certainly no guarantee that Obama will take North Carolina again in 2012 but he has a pretty good chance at it, and those prospects are looking a little brighter than they did a month ago.

Full results here

Obama posts an early lead in Florida

Add Florida to the list of key swing states where the weakness of the Republican front runners for President in 2012 would allow Barack Obama to win again if the election was today, despite his own less than stellar poll numbers. Obama leads Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, and Sarah Palin by greater margins than his victory over John McCain in the state in 2008, with only Mitt Romney running closer to Obama than McCain did.

Obama's approval rating in the state is just 45%, with 49% of voters disapproving of him. His numbers with Democrats leave something to be desired at just a 69/24 approval spread and Republicans predictably are pretty universal in their disapproval of him at 81%. But his numbers with independents are among his best anywhere in the country at 59% approving and 35% disapproving of him and that puts his overall numbers at least at a respectable level.

Florida voters may not be enamored with Obama but they don't really like the leading Republican contenders either. Sarah Palin is incredibly unpopular at a 36/57 favorability and Newt Gingrich isn't a whole lot better at 36/47. Mike Huckabee's numbers are more respectable at a 41/43 spread and only Mitt Romney has more voters with a positive than negative opinion of him at 43/38.

Romney comes closest to Obama in the hypothetical head to head match ups but still trails 46-44. You might think that with Romney having postive favorability numbers and Obama's approval under water that he would be in the lead. The problem for Romney on that front is that while 31% of Democrats like him, only 20% of them are actually willing to vote for him against Obama. On the other hand pretty much everyone who likes Obama is also committed to voting for him.

What would really help Obama's chances of taking Florida again is if the Republicans nominated Sarah Palin for President. Obama leads her by a stunning 14 point margin, 52-38. The last Democrat to take Florida by such a large margin? Usually you just have to go back to LBJ and Barry Goldwater for those comparisons but for the Sunshine State you actually have to go even further to Harry Truman's election in 1948. Part of Palin's problem is hesitance on the part of Republicans to support her- she gets only 63% of her own party's vote- but her biggest issue is independents where she trails Obama by a whooping 41 points at 67-26. We've had a lot of polls show that Palin would be a disaster for the GOP but this might be the starkest evidence of it yet.

Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich each trail Obama by 5 points, a margin slightly larger than his victory in the state in 2008. It's 49-44 against Huckabee and 47-42 against Gingrich.

Obama's relatively weak approval numbers in Florida make it clear that he could lose the state in 2012 and against Romney he'd start out in something approaching a toss up. Beyond that though if Republicans want to win Florida their candidates either need to really step up their games...or they need to find some fresher, stronger candidates.

Full results here

GOP Electorate Trending Conservative

Yesterday we wrote about part of Mitt Romney's problem with conservatives- they simply don't like him nearly as much as they do any of the other top Republican candidates for President. Today we're going to tackle the other part of Romney's- and any other Republican perceived to be a moderate's- problem with conservatives. They're likely to make up a much larger share of primary voters in 2012 than they did in 2008.

Over the last six weeks we've polled folks who identify themselves as likely Republican voters in six states that also had an exit poll for their Republican primaries in 2008. Comparing the numbers by ideology on our recent polls with what they were for the last election makes it clear that a Republican electorate already dominated by conservatives has become even more so over the last few years.

The six states we're dealing with in this analysis are Michigan, Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Florida. Here are the facts:

-2008 exit polls showed that conservatives accounted for anywhere from 56 to 68% of the primary voters in these states. Our polls for 2012 find that range to be from 70% to 77%. The percentage of likely primary voters self identifying as conservatives is up at least 7% in every individual state, and that increase goes as high as 16% in the case of Wisconsin.

-Liberals have become completely extinct in the Republican Party. This may seem obvious but 9% of primary voters in these six states still identified themselves as liberals even in 2008. That figure is all the way down to 2.5% on these polls. Whatever liberals remained in the GOP as recently as three years ago have left the ranch now.

-On average the percentage of GOP primary voters identifying themselves as conservatives in these states in 2008 was 63%. Now it's 73%. And not surprisingly in addition to the decline of liberals as an influential force in the GOP moderates are on the way down too- from an average of 29% of the primary electorate in 2008 to now 24%.

These numbers make it clear how severe Romney's problems with conservatives are- there just aren't that many moderate to liberal GOP voters left to prop him back up. There's been a thought that a centrist could win the nomination in 2012 if the conservatives cannibalize each other but I don't think moderates have a big enough piece of the pie to get someone nominated even if there are a glut of conservative candidates. The ideological composition of the GOP at this point is such that it's probably just flat impossible for someone perceived as a moderate to be their nominee. Here's the exit poll data from 2008 and our most recent polls in these states:

State/Year	Liberals	Moderates	Conservatives
Michigan 2008	11	33	56
Michigan 2012	2 (-9 from 08)	27 (-6 from 08)	71 (+15 from 08)
Virginia 2008	8	27	65
Virginia 2012	2 (-6 from 08)	26 (-1 from 08)	72 (+7 from 08)
Ohio 2008	6	29	65
Ohio 2012	3 (-3 from 08)	24 (-5 from 08)	73 (+8 from 08)
Wisconsin 2008	10	29	61
Wisconsin 2012	2 (-8 from 08)	21 (-8 from 08)	77 (+16 from 08)
Missouri 2008	7	25	68
Missouri 2012	1 (-6 from 08)	21 (-4 from 08)	77 (+9 from 08)
Florida 2008	11	28	61
Florida 2012	5 (-6 from 08)	25 (-3 from 08)	70 (+9 from 08)

Some improvement for Perdue

There's strong bipartisan support for Bev Perdue's proposed reorganization of state government and partially as a result of that her approval numbers are now at their best level since April of 2009, shortly after she took office.

50% of voters support Perdue's plans for reducing the size of state government with only 23% opposed. There's little difference across party lines in support for her proposal- 52% of Republicans, 50% of Democrats, and 45% of independents say they support what she wants to do on that front.

Being in the spotlight with a popular policy proposal will tend to help your approval rating and 35% of voters in the state now approve of Perdue with just 44% disapproving of her. The last time PPP found Perdue's disapproval as low as the 44% mark was three months after she took office in April of 2009, when her approval was a positive 41/40 spread. The next month she saw a precipitous drop to 34/51 and she hasn't been back on positive ground since.

Although she remains unpopular Perdue has at least seen a major improvement in her approval numbers over the course of 2010. Last December Perdue's approval rating was only 27% with 53% of voters giving her bad marks. Perdue's net approval rating now of -9 represents a 17 point improvement from her -26 spread a year ago at this time.

Comparing Perdue's numbers now to where they were at the beginning of the year, the most marked improvement is with her party base. 55% of Democrats now approve of the job she's doing where only 41% did earlier. She's also seen a good amount of improvement with Republicans. Although she remains largely unpopular with them her approval has nearly doubled from 8% to 15%. The most worrisome group for Perdue remains independents. She was at 28/56 with them in December of 2009 and her numbers now are pretty identical at 26/49. A PPP poll last month showed Perdue losing independents by 31 points in a hypothetical contest with Pat McCrory and it's clear that's the group she most needs to improve her standing with if she hopes to win a second term.

The road ahead remains very, very difficult for Perdue. But it may be a little less treacherous than it was at the beginning of the year.

Full results here

Nelson leads

Bill Nelson is unusually popular with Republicans and independents and would start out in a good position for reelection- unless Jeb Bush made a surprise decision to run against him.

Nelson's approval numbers don't appear on the surface to be that good, with 36% of voters approving of him and 33% disapproving with a pretty remarkable 31% holding no opinion even after nearly 16 years in statewide office. There are some unusual quirks in his numbers though that amount to him actually being stronger than his topline numbers might suggest. Democrats are pretty tepid toward him, with only 45% approving to 19% who disapprove. Usually we see folks closer to the 70% approval mark within their own parties. But he has an unusual level of popularity with Republicans- 23% might not sound like a lot of crossover support but many Democrats this year are finding themselves with single digit approval with Republicans. And Nelson's on positive ground with independents as well at 42/36, again somewhat unusual in a year where those voters were not particularly friendly to Democrats.

As a result Nelson leads by 8-16 points in hypothetical match ups against Republicans who have shown the most interest in making the race so far. It's 44-36 over Connie Mack IV, 47-36 over George LeMieux, 44-32 over Mike Haridopolos, and 46-30 over Adam Hasner.

There are two main reasons for Nelson's leads. The first is that the Republicans are largely unknown and not particularly well liked by the voters who do have an opinion about them. 78% of voters in the state are ambivalent toward Hasner and it's 70% for Haridopolos, 58% for LeMieux, and 56% for Mack. All four of them have net negative approval/favorability ratings. One of these folks could certainly emerge as an 'A' list candidate, much as Marco Rubio did, if they got the nomination and became better known but for now this is a decidedly 'B' list of candidates.

The other reason for Nelson's initial advantage is that not only do unusual numbers of Republicans and independents like him, they're also willing to vote for him. He leads Haridopolos and Mack by 27 points with independents and has a 28 point advantage over Hasner and LeMieux with them. He also gets anywhere from 15-22% of the GOP vote against each of them.

Nelson's going to start out as a decently strong favorite if any of those folks are the GOP nominee but it would be a different story if Jeb Bush got into the race. Bush continues to be well liked in the state, sporting a 51/40 favorability. Bush is universally popular with the Republican base, is unusually popular with Democrats at a 29% favorability, and is on positive ground with independents as well. In a hypothetical contest with Nelson he leads 49-44, taking a pretty substantial 23% of the Democratic vote and holding Nelson to a four point advantage with independents in contrast to the wide margins he has over the other contenders.

Nelson's in decent shape but certainly not invincible and the competitiveness of this race will hinge a good deal on how strong the Republican candidate field ends up being.

Full results here