In mid-February we did a poll of Tennessee and asked a bunch of questions about sports in the state. We never got around to releasing the results but with all the speculation about Bruce Pearl's future going on right now it seems like a good time:
-We found that Pearl had a 57/15 favorability rating with those describing themselves as fans of the Vols and that 62% of the school's fans wanted him to stay as coach to only 11% who thought he should be fired. Obviously today's game was a disaster. But when we conducted this poll fans were already well aware of Pearl's indiscretions with the NCAA (he had served his suspension) and the team was already having a pretty disappointing season. I think it's safe to say that Pearl has the strong support of his fan base. Pearl's popularity with the school's fans didn't seem to be affected all that much by everything that's happened in the last year. If he gets fired that's more the AD trying to wash his hands than a reflection of a fan base that wants him to go.
-Pearl may be in pretty good standing with Tennessee fans but we found the most popular of the state's major basketball coaches with his own fans was Vanderbilt's Kevin Stallings. 76% of the Commodores' backers have a favorable opinion of Stallings to only 2% with a negative one. To put into perspective how good those numbers are Roy Williams' favorability with UNC fans breaks down at 64/3 and Mike Krzyzewski's with Duke fans is 77/8. It would be hard to find a coach more popular with his own fan base than Stallings anywhere in the country. Memphis coach Josh Pastner's favorability spread is +42 at 54/12 with Tigers fans, matching Pearl's net numbers.
-Lane Kiffin may well be the most hated man in the state of Tennessee. Only 6% of voters in the state have a positive opinion of him to 56% with a negative one. Among just fans of the Volunteers his favorability is 6/71. Fans seem to think Derek Dooley has the program headed in the right direction- his numbers break down at 72% positive to 5% negative with Vols backers. Those are even better figures than former coach Phil Fulmer who won a national championship at the school has. 65% of Tennessee fans give him good marks to 12% expressing a negative opinion.
Full results of our Tennessee sports poll here
Friday, March 18, 2011
Blackwell for Senate?
There's not a ton of consensus among Ohio Republicans about who they'd like their Senate candidate to be next year but their top choice is a blast from the past- Ken Blackwell. 17% say they'd like the former Secretary of State and Gubernatorial candidate to be their nominee, followed by 14% for current Secretary of State Jon Husted, 12% for comedian Drew Carey, 9% for Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor, 8% for Congressmen Jim Jordan and Steve LaTourette, 6% for Treasurer Josh Mandel, and 1% for state senator Shannon Jones.
It's kind of hard to write off Blackwell's lead as just name recognition since Husted, Taylor, and Mandel all got elected statewide just four months ago. A Blackwell candidacy would actually make sense in a lot of ways. Unlike Jordan and LaTourette he wouldn't have to give up a safe House seat to make a bid (although we'll see how they come out in redistricting.) And unlike Husted, Taylor, and Mandel he wouldn't have to deal with the baggage of seeming to shirk the duties of a statewide office he was just elected to. Right now defeating Sherrod Brown looks to be a bit of a long shot so it might be the sort of high risk, high reward thing that someone like Blackwell with little to lose should be looking for if he wants to get back into the electoral politics game.
If you take Drew Carey out of the equation the preference for Blackwell expands to 21% naming him as their top choice compared to 14% for Husted and 10% for LaTourette and Jordan.
The Republican Presidential race in the state is muddled, as is the case most everywhere. Mike Huckabee 'leads' with 19% wanting him as the party nominee to 18% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Sarah Palin, 7% for Ron Paul, 5% for Tim Pawlenty, 4% for Mitch Daniels, and 2% for Haley Barbour.
The main thing of note with those numbers is the decline of Sarah Palin. When we polled Ohio in December she was the top choice of Republicans in the state at 21% but now she's dropped 6 points and into 4th place at 15%. Her favorability numbers have taken a big hit as well. She was at a +48 spread in December (68/20) but has seen a 15 point decline to a +33 spread (61/28). A lot of people have been writing about Palin's Republican problem this week- it's real.
The numbers in Ohio also provide more evidence that Gingrich has stumbled out of the block- he's seen a 9 point drop in his net favorability from +26 in December (53/27) to now +17 (46/29). Romney's only seen a one point shift in his numbers over that period of time while Huckabee's actually improved a net 4 points.
Full results here
It's kind of hard to write off Blackwell's lead as just name recognition since Husted, Taylor, and Mandel all got elected statewide just four months ago. A Blackwell candidacy would actually make sense in a lot of ways. Unlike Jordan and LaTourette he wouldn't have to give up a safe House seat to make a bid (although we'll see how they come out in redistricting.) And unlike Husted, Taylor, and Mandel he wouldn't have to deal with the baggage of seeming to shirk the duties of a statewide office he was just elected to. Right now defeating Sherrod Brown looks to be a bit of a long shot so it might be the sort of high risk, high reward thing that someone like Blackwell with little to lose should be looking for if he wants to get back into the electoral politics game.
If you take Drew Carey out of the equation the preference for Blackwell expands to 21% naming him as their top choice compared to 14% for Husted and 10% for LaTourette and Jordan.
The Republican Presidential race in the state is muddled, as is the case most everywhere. Mike Huckabee 'leads' with 19% wanting him as the party nominee to 18% for Mitt Romney, 16% for Newt Gingrich, 15% for Sarah Palin, 7% for Ron Paul, 5% for Tim Pawlenty, 4% for Mitch Daniels, and 2% for Haley Barbour.
The main thing of note with those numbers is the decline of Sarah Palin. When we polled Ohio in December she was the top choice of Republicans in the state at 21% but now she's dropped 6 points and into 4th place at 15%. Her favorability numbers have taken a big hit as well. She was at a +48 spread in December (68/20) but has seen a 15 point decline to a +33 spread (61/28). A lot of people have been writing about Palin's Republican problem this week- it's real.
The numbers in Ohio also provide more evidence that Gingrich has stumbled out of the block- he's seen a 9 point drop in his net favorability from +26 in December (53/27) to now +17 (46/29). Romney's only seen a one point shift in his numbers over that period of time while Huckabee's actually improved a net 4 points.
Full results here
Fox News Polling
There's been some speculation in the last few weeks that Glenn Beck might not have his contract with Fox News renewed when it comes up later this year, but our newest national poll finds that would be a big mistake with the network's viewers.
65% of voters who say that they regularly watch Fox News want Beck's show to continue, compared to 16% who think he should be fired and 19% who are unsure. Among all Americans just 44% think Beck's show should still air to 32% who think he should be fired but those lower numbers are because most of the sentiment for getting rid of him comes from folks who don't actually watch the network. 47% of non-Fox News viewers would like to see Beck lose his job to 25% who think he should be kept around.
Here are some other poll findings among people who described themselves as regular viewers of Fox News:
-Barack Obama's approval rating is 27%, with 68% of voters disapproving of him. That's higher than I would have expected.
-Among the most likely Republican Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee leads the way with a +19 favorability spread at 45/26. He's followed by Sarah Palin at +16 (53/37), Mitt Romney at +4 (40/36), and Newt Gingrich at +2 (41/39). Those numbers are particularly problematic for Romney and Gingrich, it's hard to imagine someone taking the GOP Presidential nomination with only narrowly positive favorability numbers among Fox News viewers.
-More popular than any of this quartet with Fox watchers is Scott Walker at a +30 spread (51/21). Going to be interesting to see how much of a push there is from the Republican base for him to shoot for the White House.
65% of voters who say that they regularly watch Fox News want Beck's show to continue, compared to 16% who think he should be fired and 19% who are unsure. Among all Americans just 44% think Beck's show should still air to 32% who think he should be fired but those lower numbers are because most of the sentiment for getting rid of him comes from folks who don't actually watch the network. 47% of non-Fox News viewers would like to see Beck lose his job to 25% who think he should be kept around.
Here are some other poll findings among people who described themselves as regular viewers of Fox News:
-Barack Obama's approval rating is 27%, with 68% of voters disapproving of him. That's higher than I would have expected.
-Among the most likely Republican Presidential candidates Mike Huckabee leads the way with a +19 favorability spread at 45/26. He's followed by Sarah Palin at +16 (53/37), Mitt Romney at +4 (40/36), and Newt Gingrich at +2 (41/39). Those numbers are particularly problematic for Romney and Gingrich, it's hard to imagine someone taking the GOP Presidential nomination with only narrowly positive favorability numbers among Fox News viewers.
-More popular than any of this quartet with Fox watchers is Scott Walker at a +30 spread (51/21). Going to be interesting to see how much of a push there is from the Republican base for him to shoot for the White House.
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Michigan Question Suggestions
Michigan was the winner of our vote on where to poll next week, so that's where we'll go along with North Carolina. 2 things:
-Who would you like to see us test against Debbie Stabenow?
-What other questions should we ask?
Obviously we'll do the standard Presidential stuff we do in every state, and we'll include Scott Walker just to see how he does. Thanks as always for the suggestions.
-Who would you like to see us test against Debbie Stabenow?
-What other questions should we ask?
Obviously we'll do the standard Presidential stuff we do in every state, and we'll include Scott Walker just to see how he does. Thanks as always for the suggestions.
Obama winning in Ohio
Our Presidential numbers in Ohio provide further evidence that the state has swung back toward the Democrats since the November election. Barack Obama now has narrowly positive approval numbers in the state at 47% giving him good marks to 46% who are unhappy with the job he's doing. And he leads his top prospective Republican opponents for next year by margins ranging from 6 to 16 points.
This is the first time in six PPP surveys of Ohio since June 2009 that Obama's had more voters approving of him than disapproving. In December 42% of voters expressed approval of him while 49% disapproved. The key to his improved standing is that the base has rallied around him. Where only 71% of Democrats expressed approval of him on that poll, 84% of Democrats do now. The first couple years of the Obama administration featured a lot of Democrats fighting with each other- now that they've sort of unified around a common enemy in the form of John Kasich it seems to be leading to a more united party up and down the line.
There's certainly bad news for Obama in his approval numbers too. He remains unpopular with independents, only 39% of whom approve of him to 49% who disapprove. And his already pretty much nonexistent support from Republicans has shrunk even further from 11% to 7%. Still having his own party's voters behind him puts him in the best shape he's been in the state since the early months of his tenure.
Obama leads all of the top Republicans in the state by margins greater than his 4 point win over John McCain in 2008. Mitt Romney is the most competitive, trailing Obama by 6 points at 46-40. After him it's Mike Huckabee trailing by 7 at 48-41, Newt Gingrich down 12 at 50-38, and Sarah Palin at a 16 point advantage, 52-36.
Why is Obama up by so much when voters are so evenly divided on him? It's because voters in the state are very negative toward the Republican candidate field. Huckabee has the best favorability but it still comes in at a -6 spread at 36/42. After him it's Romney at -10 (33/43), Palin at -28 (31/59), and Gingrich at -32 (24/56). Our national poll yesterday also found Gingrich with worse favorability numbers than Palin, it's kind of hard to imagine his last couple of weeks could have been much more of a disaster.
What might be most telling about how unappealing the Republicans are is that even though independents don't like Obama they'd still vote for him by 8 points over Huckabee, 15 points over Gingrich, and 17 points over Palin while trailing Romney by just 2 with them. Those voters may not be big on Obama but for now they're not seeing any of the prospective GOP candidates as particularly viable alternatives.
Ohio joins Virginia and Colorado as states PPP has polled since the beginning of February that George W. Bush won in both 2000 and 2004 where Obama now leads all of his prospective opponents for next year by at least 6 points. There's no way Republicans can win the White House back if that continues to be the case.
Full results here
This is the first time in six PPP surveys of Ohio since June 2009 that Obama's had more voters approving of him than disapproving. In December 42% of voters expressed approval of him while 49% disapproved. The key to his improved standing is that the base has rallied around him. Where only 71% of Democrats expressed approval of him on that poll, 84% of Democrats do now. The first couple years of the Obama administration featured a lot of Democrats fighting with each other- now that they've sort of unified around a common enemy in the form of John Kasich it seems to be leading to a more united party up and down the line.
There's certainly bad news for Obama in his approval numbers too. He remains unpopular with independents, only 39% of whom approve of him to 49% who disapprove. And his already pretty much nonexistent support from Republicans has shrunk even further from 11% to 7%. Still having his own party's voters behind him puts him in the best shape he's been in the state since the early months of his tenure.
Obama leads all of the top Republicans in the state by margins greater than his 4 point win over John McCain in 2008. Mitt Romney is the most competitive, trailing Obama by 6 points at 46-40. After him it's Mike Huckabee trailing by 7 at 48-41, Newt Gingrich down 12 at 50-38, and Sarah Palin at a 16 point advantage, 52-36.
Why is Obama up by so much when voters are so evenly divided on him? It's because voters in the state are very negative toward the Republican candidate field. Huckabee has the best favorability but it still comes in at a -6 spread at 36/42. After him it's Romney at -10 (33/43), Palin at -28 (31/59), and Gingrich at -32 (24/56). Our national poll yesterday also found Gingrich with worse favorability numbers than Palin, it's kind of hard to imagine his last couple of weeks could have been much more of a disaster.
What might be most telling about how unappealing the Republicans are is that even though independents don't like Obama they'd still vote for him by 8 points over Huckabee, 15 points over Gingrich, and 17 points over Palin while trailing Romney by just 2 with them. Those voters may not be big on Obama but for now they're not seeing any of the prospective GOP candidates as particularly viable alternatives.
Ohio joins Virginia and Colorado as states PPP has polled since the beginning of February that George W. Bush won in both 2000 and 2004 where Obama now leads all of his prospective opponents for next year by at least 6 points. There's no way Republicans can win the White House back if that continues to be the case.
Full results here
Crazy E-Mail of the Day
Had to know the Charlie Sheen poll would bring out the crazies...
From: M JN [mailto:retiretherinos@hotmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 17, 2011 1:07 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: Partisan Propoganda Polling
From: M JN [mailto:retiretherinos@hotmail.com]
Sent: Thursday, March 17, 2011 1:07 PM
To: PPP Information
Subject: Partisan Propoganda Polling
Dear Partisan Propoganda Polling,
PPP/Kos/SEIU you are now even more of a joke than you were before. Your polls are such lies that are growing more and more outrageous by the month. You really have been proven to be Propoganda Polling except you don't poll, you just make it up. Everything you put out on Palin is suspect. What kind of a Pollster puts out a Palin vs Charlie Sheen poll and polls the favorability of Levi Johnston and Asks Alaskan's if they Can See Russia. Are you kidding? You Pathetic Partisan Loons really hate Palin and the fact that you include such questions make you a joke. PPP is agenda driven garbage and your polls on Palin are not believed by anyone but the moronic left. Plus your latest poll on John Kasich with a 35% Approval and 54% Disapproval, How much did the Unions Pay for that Propoganda? You are making it up because Kasich is going after the People that write your Checks, the Unions. Public Propoganda Polling is now alligned with the Daily Kooks and SEIU, so we know that your polls are Left Wing Propoganda. Your Anti-Palin agenda is so obvious, you poll the favorability of Levi Johnston and her versus Charlie Sheen. Left Wing Lunatics and Derranged Palin Haters should not be in the Polling Business. Your Alaska Polls were way off in Every Race because you don't poll! Public Propoganda's South Dakota polls are Laughable, your numbers on Palin and Kristi Noem are bullcrap. Everything you put out on Palin is bullcrap and every poll that you put out is bullcrap. Partisan Democrats have no interest in Accurate Polls. You lie! Your South Dakota numbers are bogus, your Missouri Numbers are bogus, your Palin numbers are bogus, and your credibility is Non-Existent. If Palin Runs, your propoganda fails.
Walker could be a serious contender
No one outside of Wisconsin had ever heard of him two months ago but our newest national poll suggests Scott Walker could be a serious contender for the Republican Presidential nomination.
Walker's favorability with Republicans is a +44 spread at 55/11. That makes him already more popular with the party base than Mike Huckabee (+42 at 58/16), Sarah Palin (+40 at 63/23), Mitt Romney (+21 at 47/26), and Newt Gingrich (+19 at 49/30).
None of the folks most seriously considering this race have been able to get any momentum yet, leaving a lot of room for a fresher face to enter and get a lot of traction. Walker's crusade against the unions has put him in a position where he could be that guy.
Walker's in good standing with the GOP base but overall Americans have a negative opinion of him and side with the unions in the current conflict, although it would be hard to describe the country as anything other than closely divided. 34% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walker to 39% who rate him negatively. 46% generally have a favorable opinion of labor unions to 40% who rate them negatively. And 45% say they side with the unions in the Wisconsin dispute to 41% who go with Walker. These findings all closely mirror what we found in the state itself- voters are extremely polarized but do side narrowly with the workers.
Even for the general election Walker's favorability numbers, though under water, stack up well to the rest of the Republican field. His -5 spread is better than Huckabee's -7 (35/42), Romney's -12 (32/44), Palin's -22 (35/57), and Gingrich's -31 (26/57). The primary flaw with the top GOP hopefuls is that Americans already know them well and dislike them. That might prove to be the case ultimately with Walker as well but a candidacy from him is an intriguing possibility. We'll throw him on some of our polls over the next few weeks for both primary and general elections and see how he does.
Full results here
Walker's favorability with Republicans is a +44 spread at 55/11. That makes him already more popular with the party base than Mike Huckabee (+42 at 58/16), Sarah Palin (+40 at 63/23), Mitt Romney (+21 at 47/26), and Newt Gingrich (+19 at 49/30).
None of the folks most seriously considering this race have been able to get any momentum yet, leaving a lot of room for a fresher face to enter and get a lot of traction. Walker's crusade against the unions has put him in a position where he could be that guy.
Walker's in good standing with the GOP base but overall Americans have a negative opinion of him and side with the unions in the current conflict, although it would be hard to describe the country as anything other than closely divided. 34% of voters have a favorable opinion of Walker to 39% who rate him negatively. 46% generally have a favorable opinion of labor unions to 40% who rate them negatively. And 45% say they side with the unions in the Wisconsin dispute to 41% who go with Walker. These findings all closely mirror what we found in the state itself- voters are extremely polarized but do side narrowly with the workers.
Even for the general election Walker's favorability numbers, though under water, stack up well to the rest of the Republican field. His -5 spread is better than Huckabee's -7 (35/42), Romney's -12 (32/44), Palin's -22 (35/57), and Gingrich's -31 (26/57). The primary flaw with the top GOP hopefuls is that Americans already know them well and dislike them. That might prove to be the case ultimately with Walker as well but a candidacy from him is an intriguing possibility. We'll throw him on some of our polls over the next few weeks for both primary and general elections and see how he does.
Full results here
Palin trails Sheen with independents
We've found a lot of brutal poll numbers for Sarah Palin so far in 2011: down in South Dakota, down in South Carolina, down in Arizona, only up by 1 point in Texas, only up by 1 point in Nebraska to name a few. But this has to be the worst- independent voters say they would support Charlie Sheen over Palin for President by a 41/36 margin. Seriously.
Despite her deficit with independents Palin does lead Sheen 49-29 overall. We also tested Barack Obama against Sheen and the President leads 57-24.
Sheen is one of the most unpopular figures we've ever polled on. 10% of Americans rate him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion of him. The only people we've ever found worse numbers for are Rod Blagojevich in Illinois (an 8/83 favorability spread), Jesse Jackson Jr. in Illinois (a 10/73 favorability), and Levi Johnston in Alaska (a 6/72 favorability). Sheen's -57 spread ties what we found for John Edwards in North Carolina the last time we polled him (15/72).
Sheen's unpopularity is pretty universal across party lines so it says something about the level of polarization in the country right now that Democrats would support him by a 44-24 margin for President over Palin and that Republicans would support him 37-28 over Obama. People may not have any respect for Sheen but they still think he'd be a better alternative than their opposing party's leading figure.
Obviously Charlie Sheen's not going to run for the White House but the Palin numbers are one of the more interesting benchmarks yet pointing to just how minuscule her chance at the Presidency would be even if she did decide to get into the race.
Full results here
Despite her deficit with independents Palin does lead Sheen 49-29 overall. We also tested Barack Obama against Sheen and the President leads 57-24.
Sheen is one of the most unpopular figures we've ever polled on. 10% of Americans rate him favorably to 67% with a negative opinion of him. The only people we've ever found worse numbers for are Rod Blagojevich in Illinois (an 8/83 favorability spread), Jesse Jackson Jr. in Illinois (a 10/73 favorability), and Levi Johnston in Alaska (a 6/72 favorability). Sheen's -57 spread ties what we found for John Edwards in North Carolina the last time we polled him (15/72).
Sheen's unpopularity is pretty universal across party lines so it says something about the level of polarization in the country right now that Democrats would support him by a 44-24 margin for President over Palin and that Republicans would support him 37-28 over Obama. People may not have any respect for Sheen but they still think he'd be a better alternative than their opposing party's leading figure.
Obviously Charlie Sheen's not going to run for the White House but the Palin numbers are one of the more interesting benchmarks yet pointing to just how minuscule her chance at the Presidency would be even if she did decide to get into the race.
Full results here
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Steelman, Huckabee lead in Missouri
Sarah Steelman is the early top choice of Missouri Republicans to be their candidate for the Senate next year, although with most of the candidates including herself largely unknown at this point there is plenty of time for that to change.
31% of GOP primary voters say they'd like Steelman to be their nominee to 24% for Todd Akin, 9% for Ed Martin, and just 2% for Ann Wagner. If you take Akin out of the mix Steelman's support expands to 37% compared with 18% for Martin and 11% for Wagner.
We're not seeing any big ideological fissures yet in these numbers. Steelman leads Akin by 14 points with moderates but she also has a 13 point advantage with those voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Her lead is narrower with 'somewhat conservative' voters who give her only a one point edge on Akin. It's a similar story when Akin's out- then Steelman's up 26 points on Martin with the 'very conservative' wing and 24 points with the moderates, but only 9 points with folks who call themselves 'somewhat conservative.' For whatever reason she's doing better with moderates and the far right than the center right.
It's too early to make a whole lot of these numbers though given that 56% of voters don't know enough about Steelman to have formed an opinion and that just rises to 61% for Akin, 75% for Martin, and 81% for Wagner.
There's a little more clarity with the Presidential primary in the state. Mike Huckabee has the lead with 29% to 19% for Newt Gingrich, 14% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Mitt Romney, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Mitch Daniels, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Haley Barbour.
One thing these numbers do reinforce is the recent ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Palin's numbers plummeting even with Republican voters. When we polled Missouri in December Palin was at 25%, so her 14% now represents an 11 point drop in her standing over the last three months. Also while the other GOP frontrunners have seen modest drops in their net favorability since our previous Missouri Republican poll- 5 points for Romney, 3 for Gingrich, and 2 for Huckabee- Palin has seen a much more dramatic 16 point decline from +52 in December at 72/20 to now +36 at 63/27. There's no doubt that the already limited interest in a Presidential bid from her that Republican voters had is declining even further.
The other thing that's striking in these numbers is how weak Romney is. In 2008 Huckabee got 32% here and his current 29% standing doesn't represent much difference. But Romney pulled 29% here last time around and his 13% now means he's lost more than half of his support. His albatross here, as we're seeing in more and more of our GOP polling, is voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' They're the largest segment of the Republican electorate in Missouri at 41%, and only 10% of them want Romney as their candidate next year. His favorability numbers with those folks are only narrowly above water at 46/34. Compare that to 80% for Huckabee, 79% for Palin, and 61% for Gingrich. He can't win the nomination if his standing doesn't vastly improve with those folks.
Full results here
31% of GOP primary voters say they'd like Steelman to be their nominee to 24% for Todd Akin, 9% for Ed Martin, and just 2% for Ann Wagner. If you take Akin out of the mix Steelman's support expands to 37% compared with 18% for Martin and 11% for Wagner.
We're not seeing any big ideological fissures yet in these numbers. Steelman leads Akin by 14 points with moderates but she also has a 13 point advantage with those voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' Her lead is narrower with 'somewhat conservative' voters who give her only a one point edge on Akin. It's a similar story when Akin's out- then Steelman's up 26 points on Martin with the 'very conservative' wing and 24 points with the moderates, but only 9 points with folks who call themselves 'somewhat conservative.' For whatever reason she's doing better with moderates and the far right than the center right.
It's too early to make a whole lot of these numbers though given that 56% of voters don't know enough about Steelman to have formed an opinion and that just rises to 61% for Akin, 75% for Martin, and 81% for Wagner.
There's a little more clarity with the Presidential primary in the state. Mike Huckabee has the lead with 29% to 19% for Newt Gingrich, 14% for Sarah Palin, 13% for Mitt Romney, 7% for Ron Paul, 4% for Mitch Daniels, 3% for Tim Pawlenty, and 2% for Haley Barbour.
One thing these numbers do reinforce is the recent ABC/Washington Post poll that showed Palin's numbers plummeting even with Republican voters. When we polled Missouri in December Palin was at 25%, so her 14% now represents an 11 point drop in her standing over the last three months. Also while the other GOP frontrunners have seen modest drops in their net favorability since our previous Missouri Republican poll- 5 points for Romney, 3 for Gingrich, and 2 for Huckabee- Palin has seen a much more dramatic 16 point decline from +52 in December at 72/20 to now +36 at 63/27. There's no doubt that the already limited interest in a Presidential bid from her that Republican voters had is declining even further.
The other thing that's striking in these numbers is how weak Romney is. In 2008 Huckabee got 32% here and his current 29% standing doesn't represent much difference. But Romney pulled 29% here last time around and his 13% now means he's lost more than half of his support. His albatross here, as we're seeing in more and more of our GOP polling, is voters describing themselves as 'very conservative.' They're the largest segment of the Republican electorate in Missouri at 41%, and only 10% of them want Romney as their candidate next year. His favorability numbers with those folks are only narrowly above water at 46/34. Compare that to 80% for Huckabee, 79% for Palin, and 61% for Gingrich. He can't win the nomination if his standing doesn't vastly improve with those folks.
Full results here
Voters tepid toward Obama, but favor him over GOP
Barack Obama's looking somewhat weak in our national polling. The good news for him is that his prospective Republican opponents look even weaker, and that's allowing him to maintain healthy leads in head to head match ups against each of them looking toward next year.
Voters are evenly divided on Obama with 47% who think he's doing a good job and 47% who are unhappy with his performance. His numbers break down in a predictable fashion. Democrats (82% approval) love him, Republicans (86% disapproval) hate him even more than the Democrats love him, and independents (46/47 spread) split almost right down the middle. It would be hard to characterize the attitude of the overall electorate toward Obama right now as anything other than 'mixed feelings.'
Voters don't have mixed feelings about the Republican candidates though- they pretty universally dislike them. Mike Huckabee's favorability comes out the best at a -7 spread (35/42). That's followed by Mitt Romney at -12 (32/44), Tim Pawlenty at -18 (15/33), Herman Cain at -20 (9/29), Sarah Palin at -22 (35/57), and Newt Gingrich at -31 (26/57). It's a sign of just how much of a disaster the rollout of Gingrich's candidacy was that he's now managing even worse numbers than Palin.
The result of the unpopularity of the Republican candidate field is that even if voters are closely divided on Obama, they'll still take him when they have to choose between him and any of the GOP hopefuls. Huckabee and Romney poll the best, trailing Obama by 5 points at 48/43 and 47/42 respectively. Each of them would at least make things a little bit more competitive than John McCain did- perhaps take back a North Carolina or Indiana and reduce Obama's electoral vote margin. Against any of the other Republicans at this point though Obama would build on his 2008 win. He leads Gingrich by 11 points at 50-39, Pawlenty by 14 at 47-33, Palin by 15 at 53-38, and Cain by 18 at 47-29.
It should be noted that these match ups are likely to tighten once Republicans unify around a candidate. The uncertainty about who the GOP candidate will be results in there being many more undecided Republican voters than Democrats in each of these contests. There are 4% more Republicans on the fence in the Huckabee match up, 8% more in the Romney one, 10% more in the Gingrich and Palin ones, 15% more in the Pawlenty one, and 24% more in the Cain ones. That's not a big enough disparity to allow any of them to make up the entire gap but it is big enough to move them closer.
Pawlenty and Cain were the 'bonus' Republicans on this month's poll so their numbers seem a little more worth delving into. This is the first time we've included Pawlenty on a national poll since December of 2009. His name recognition has improved from 36% to 48% in the last 15 months. The bad news for him is that his favorability has just gone from 12% to 15% while his unfavorabilty has gone from 24% to 33%. That's because his negatives with Democrats have risen at a much higher rate (from 32% to 48%) than his positives with Republicans have improved (from 16% to 23%.) So basically Democrats are developing a negative opinion of him at 2X the rate Republicans are developing a positive opinion of him.
And here's a fact that doesn't bode well for Pawlenty as he becomes better known. With voters who have no opinion about him, he trails Obama only 38-31. With voters who do feel like they know enough about him to have an opinion he trails the President 58-36. So if he becomes the GOP nominee by attrition, well, Democrats are probably fine with that. But these numbers don't really suggest that Republican voters will turn toward Pawlenty as they get to know him better either, so I'm not sure about the 'default' theory, although it's as plausible as anything else out there in this highly unsettled field.
Cain meanwhile has negative favorability numbers even with Republicans at 12/17. I'm not really surprised because our polling consistently finds that voters who aren't familiar with a politician are much more likely to rate them negatively in the absence of real knowledge than positively. You probably start out at a -10 favorability deficit. So Cain's numbers, although unimpressive no matter how you slice it, are probably more a function of that than some segment of GOP voters actively disliking him.
Full results here
Voters are evenly divided on Obama with 47% who think he's doing a good job and 47% who are unhappy with his performance. His numbers break down in a predictable fashion. Democrats (82% approval) love him, Republicans (86% disapproval) hate him even more than the Democrats love him, and independents (46/47 spread) split almost right down the middle. It would be hard to characterize the attitude of the overall electorate toward Obama right now as anything other than 'mixed feelings.'
Voters don't have mixed feelings about the Republican candidates though- they pretty universally dislike them. Mike Huckabee's favorability comes out the best at a -7 spread (35/42). That's followed by Mitt Romney at -12 (32/44), Tim Pawlenty at -18 (15/33), Herman Cain at -20 (9/29), Sarah Palin at -22 (35/57), and Newt Gingrich at -31 (26/57). It's a sign of just how much of a disaster the rollout of Gingrich's candidacy was that he's now managing even worse numbers than Palin.
The result of the unpopularity of the Republican candidate field is that even if voters are closely divided on Obama, they'll still take him when they have to choose between him and any of the GOP hopefuls. Huckabee and Romney poll the best, trailing Obama by 5 points at 48/43 and 47/42 respectively. Each of them would at least make things a little bit more competitive than John McCain did- perhaps take back a North Carolina or Indiana and reduce Obama's electoral vote margin. Against any of the other Republicans at this point though Obama would build on his 2008 win. He leads Gingrich by 11 points at 50-39, Pawlenty by 14 at 47-33, Palin by 15 at 53-38, and Cain by 18 at 47-29.
It should be noted that these match ups are likely to tighten once Republicans unify around a candidate. The uncertainty about who the GOP candidate will be results in there being many more undecided Republican voters than Democrats in each of these contests. There are 4% more Republicans on the fence in the Huckabee match up, 8% more in the Romney one, 10% more in the Gingrich and Palin ones, 15% more in the Pawlenty one, and 24% more in the Cain ones. That's not a big enough disparity to allow any of them to make up the entire gap but it is big enough to move them closer.
Pawlenty and Cain were the 'bonus' Republicans on this month's poll so their numbers seem a little more worth delving into. This is the first time we've included Pawlenty on a national poll since December of 2009. His name recognition has improved from 36% to 48% in the last 15 months. The bad news for him is that his favorability has just gone from 12% to 15% while his unfavorabilty has gone from 24% to 33%. That's because his negatives with Democrats have risen at a much higher rate (from 32% to 48%) than his positives with Republicans have improved (from 16% to 23%.) So basically Democrats are developing a negative opinion of him at 2X the rate Republicans are developing a positive opinion of him.
And here's a fact that doesn't bode well for Pawlenty as he becomes better known. With voters who have no opinion about him, he trails Obama only 38-31. With voters who do feel like they know enough about him to have an opinion he trails the President 58-36. So if he becomes the GOP nominee by attrition, well, Democrats are probably fine with that. But these numbers don't really suggest that Republican voters will turn toward Pawlenty as they get to know him better either, so I'm not sure about the 'default' theory, although it's as plausible as anything else out there in this highly unsettled field.
Cain meanwhile has negative favorability numbers even with Republicans at 12/17. I'm not really surprised because our polling consistently finds that voters who aren't familiar with a politician are much more likely to rate them negatively in the absence of real knowledge than positively. You probably start out at a -10 favorability deficit. So Cain's numbers, although unimpressive no matter how you slice it, are probably more a function of that than some segment of GOP voters actively disliking him.
Full results here
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