We'll take the top two winners of the poll above. Your choices (the blurbs for the losers of last week's poll (NM, PA, and TX) are taken verbatim from Tom's post then):
-Georgia. With Newt tanking in the polls and his staff down to about himself and his wife, and with Cain posting respectable numbers in the primary matchups we've done since the South Carolina debate, it'll be interesting to see how they do in the primary here now and against President Obama, who hopes to put the state in play. When we polled there in early April, Obama was narrowly leading Cain, Newt, and Palin, and barely trailing Romney and Huckabee, and Huckabee barely topped Gingrich, with Cain in a close third in the primary.
-New Hampshire. We had Obama over Romney by only one point in early April. With Romney showing strength in IA and SC recently with Huckabee's absence, I wonder how much his overwhelming lead in the primary has grown, and if Pawlenty, Bachmann, or Cain, who are rising elsewhere, are making any traction on Romney's summer home turf.
-New Mexico. We have not taken a look at the state since Jeff Bingaman announced his retirement- should be interesting to see how things are looking in both Senate primaries and in the general election. We'll look at President obviously too but this is one place where I think it will be a while before the GOP is competitive again.
-Pennsylvania. We found really brutal numbers for Obama there in early April, pre-bin Laden, including a small deficit in a head to head with Mitt Romney. Interesting to see if things still look as gloomy for him there.
-Tennessee. There isn't much going on here unless Phil Bredesen challenges Bob Corker, but a poll just came out showing President Obama leading various Republicans here. While he was doing better back in February than he did against McCain, we didn't find that to be remotely the case.
-Texas. We haven't polled there since the start of the year- curious to see if folks are any warmer toward a Rick Perry Presidential bid than they were in January and also to check in on the Senate race and see if that's looking any more winnable for Democrats than it did 5 months ago.
Voting will be open for the next 24 hours or so.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Voting time
Despite popularity, Tester narrowly trails Rehberg
Sen. Jon Tester is considerably more popular than his likely 2012 opponent, Rep. Denny Rehberg, yet still lags the Republican by a hair in his bid for a second term representing Montana. In fact, Tester is the most popular senator we've ever polled on who still trails in a re-election horserace.
Tester's 51-39 approval margin is essentially unchanged from when we last took a look at the state about a week after last November's election, when it was 50-40. And his deficit to Rehberg also has not budged. He was down 48-46 then, and 47-45 now. That is despite voters' views of Rehberg declining, from a 49-37 favorability rating to only a 44-45 approval rating. The main change there has come with independents, who make up almost a third of the state's voters. They saw him favorably, 46-37, last fall, but disapprove 35-54 now, almost the opposite of their 53-36 approval of Tester.
Yet in spite of a negative trend in Rehberg's public perception with swing voters and the fact that Tester is the second most popular Democratic senator from a McCain state after West Virginia's Joe Manchin, his head-to-head with Rehberg hasn't moved because of the persistent though not overwhelming red lean of the state (Republicans outnumber Democrats 39-31), and because Rehberg does a better job than Tester of translating approval into votes.
Tester's party approves of his job performance, 89-5, but 10% of them say they'd vote for Rehberg at this point, and 86% stay faithful. Rehberg actually improves on his standing with his own party. 13% of them disapprove of his performance, and only 74% approve, but he locks up their vote, 86-8. Tester does have a 51-36 lead with independents, helping to cut into the GOP ID advantage.
To win, Tester is obviously going to have to do some combination of continuing to grow his lead with independents (he was up 49-39 in November), rallying his party base, and cutting into Rehberg's strength across the aisle. Numbers-wise, the latter is the way to go, since Republicans are a 39% plurality, but practically, that is unlikely. So Tester will probably try to paint himself as a Schweitzer-like common-sense populist and Rehberg as an extremist. Unfortunately for him, Rehberg was one of only four House Republicans to vote against the Paul Ryan budget proposal, and that vote has yet to produce a challenge from the right.
Tester's senior colleague, Max Baucus, could have an even tougher fight on his hands in 2014 than Tester will next year. Baucus' approval numbers are up a bit from November, when 53% disapproved and only 38% approved. But his 40-50 figure now is not much better. He is less popular than Tester with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. The state's longest-serving senator beat a fringe GOP opponent by 46 points in 2008, but that performance will be impossible to top in a midterm, if the current 69-year-old even runs for a seventh term.
Full results here.
Tester's 51-39 approval margin is essentially unchanged from when we last took a look at the state about a week after last November's election, when it was 50-40. And his deficit to Rehberg also has not budged. He was down 48-46 then, and 47-45 now. That is despite voters' views of Rehberg declining, from a 49-37 favorability rating to only a 44-45 approval rating. The main change there has come with independents, who make up almost a third of the state's voters. They saw him favorably, 46-37, last fall, but disapprove 35-54 now, almost the opposite of their 53-36 approval of Tester.
Yet in spite of a negative trend in Rehberg's public perception with swing voters and the fact that Tester is the second most popular Democratic senator from a McCain state after West Virginia's Joe Manchin, his head-to-head with Rehberg hasn't moved because of the persistent though not overwhelming red lean of the state (Republicans outnumber Democrats 39-31), and because Rehberg does a better job than Tester of translating approval into votes.
Tester's party approves of his job performance, 89-5, but 10% of them say they'd vote for Rehberg at this point, and 86% stay faithful. Rehberg actually improves on his standing with his own party. 13% of them disapprove of his performance, and only 74% approve, but he locks up their vote, 86-8. Tester does have a 51-36 lead with independents, helping to cut into the GOP ID advantage.
To win, Tester is obviously going to have to do some combination of continuing to grow his lead with independents (he was up 49-39 in November), rallying his party base, and cutting into Rehberg's strength across the aisle. Numbers-wise, the latter is the way to go, since Republicans are a 39% plurality, but practically, that is unlikely. So Tester will probably try to paint himself as a Schweitzer-like common-sense populist and Rehberg as an extremist. Unfortunately for him, Rehberg was one of only four House Republicans to vote against the Paul Ryan budget proposal, and that vote has yet to produce a challenge from the right.
Tester's senior colleague, Max Baucus, could have an even tougher fight on his hands in 2014 than Tester will next year. Baucus' approval numbers are up a bit from November, when 53% disapproved and only 38% approved. But his 40-50 figure now is not much better. He is less popular than Tester with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike. The state's longest-serving senator beat a fringe GOP opponent by 46 points in 2008, but that performance will be impossible to top in a midterm, if the current 69-year-old even runs for a seventh term.
Full results here.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Sex scandals, Paul Revere, etc...
-Anthony Weiner's been in the headlines lately but he's nowhere near the top of the list of who voters think the worst politician involved in a sex scandal over the last decade and change is.
That 'honor' goes to John Edwards who 38% of respondents said was the 'worst person' who had been involved in a sex scandal. Bill Clinton came in second at 21%. No one else we asked about hit double digits: Larry Craig got 8%, Mark Foley 5%, and then everyone else tied at 3%: Weiner, John Ensign, Mark Sanford, and Eliot Spitzer.
There's a pretty serious partisan divide on that question. Democrats (41-11) and independents (35-17) pick Edwards over Clinton by a long shot but Republicans are pretty evenly divided, picking Edwards only 35-34.
-So with this litany of male politicians involved in sex scandals we posed the question: 'do you think that most male politicians are sexually immoral or not?' 23% of voters answered yes to that one with 56% saying no and another 21% saying they weren't sure. 28% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 17% of independents express that sentiment. Unsurprisingly there is also a gender gap with 27% of women thinking that but only 19% of men.
-Switching gears, voters- even Republicans- are not buying Sarah Palin's explanation of Paul Revere's midnight ride. Only 14% think that he was 'warning the British' to 67% who disagree with that interpretation. 74% of independents, 70% of Democrats, and 59% of independents think that Revere was not warning the British.
Asked more specifically whether they thought Palin's interpretation of Revere's ride was historically accurate 56% of voters said it was not while just 14% said they thought she was correct. Democrats (75/3) and independents (62/12) overwhelmingly think she was wrong, and even Republicans do albeit by quite a narrow margin (30/29).
Palin's knowledge of Revolutionary history is not particularly important but her getting it wrong and then doubling down and insisting she was right seems to have further hurt her credibility with an American public she already didn't have much credibility with.
Full results here
That 'honor' goes to John Edwards who 38% of respondents said was the 'worst person' who had been involved in a sex scandal. Bill Clinton came in second at 21%. No one else we asked about hit double digits: Larry Craig got 8%, Mark Foley 5%, and then everyone else tied at 3%: Weiner, John Ensign, Mark Sanford, and Eliot Spitzer.
There's a pretty serious partisan divide on that question. Democrats (41-11) and independents (35-17) pick Edwards over Clinton by a long shot but Republicans are pretty evenly divided, picking Edwards only 35-34.
-So with this litany of male politicians involved in sex scandals we posed the question: 'do you think that most male politicians are sexually immoral or not?' 23% of voters answered yes to that one with 56% saying no and another 21% saying they weren't sure. 28% of Democrats, 22% of Republicans, and 17% of independents express that sentiment. Unsurprisingly there is also a gender gap with 27% of women thinking that but only 19% of men.
-Switching gears, voters- even Republicans- are not buying Sarah Palin's explanation of Paul Revere's midnight ride. Only 14% think that he was 'warning the British' to 67% who disagree with that interpretation. 74% of independents, 70% of Democrats, and 59% of independents think that Revere was not warning the British.
Asked more specifically whether they thought Palin's interpretation of Revere's ride was historically accurate 56% of voters said it was not while just 14% said they thought she was correct. Democrats (75/3) and independents (62/12) overwhelmingly think she was wrong, and even Republicans do albeit by quite a narrow margin (30/29).
Palin's knowledge of Revolutionary history is not particularly important but her getting it wrong and then doubling down and insisting she was right seems to have further hurt her credibility with an American public she already didn't have much credibility with.
Full results here
Romney leads, McCrory vulnerable
The clearest sign of Mitt Romney's enhanced standing after Mike Huckabee decided not to run for President may be his strength in the South. Last week we found him with a healthy lead among Republican voters in South Carolina and this week we find him ahead in North Carolina as well, a state where he had previously polled pretty poorly.
Romney leads in the Tar Heel state with 20% to 18% for Herman Cain, 17% for Sarah Palin, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
This is the second poll this week where we've found Cain doing better than Palin. He is the new darling of the far right crowd that has generally favored Palin. With voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' he gets 21% to 19% for Palin, 15% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich. Romney holds the overall lead by cleaning up with voters who are either centrists or just slightly right of center. With moderates he gets 32% to 15% for Palin and 10% for Paul, with Cain registering at only 9%. And with 'somewhat conservative' voters Romney gets 21% to 18% for Cain and 15% for Palin.
It's getting to the point where it hardly seems worth remarking on Gingrich's poor poll numbers but this makes another state where the plurality even of GOP voters rates him negatively- 47% to just 38% with a positive opinion of him. What makes that noteworthy is North Carolina is one of the few states where we ever found Gingrich leading the way in the Republican primary. That he now does so poorly in a state where he once did quite well speaks to the utter collapse of his candidacy.
Pat McCrory has embraced the Republican legislature even as it's gone too far to the right for the tastes of most North Carolina voters and this might explain why: 44% of primary voters would vote for a 'more conservative' alternative to him next year compared to only 34% who say they would vote for McCrory given that choice.
There's no questions GOP voters like McCrory- his favorability with them is 56/9. But there's still a lot of concern with the base that he's not sufficiently conservative and his actions over the last six months make it clear that he's trying to keep that 'more conservative' opponent from emerging. By contrast we asked this same question about Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown recently and only 25% of primary voters wanted someone to his right with 65% firmly committed to him. So it's not like Republicans always want a more conservative alternative.
There are no signs of a serious primary opponent for McCrory on the horizon but if someone with fundraising ability on his right did decide to make the race, his nomination would not be nearly as inevitable as commonly assumed.
Full results here
Romney leads in the Tar Heel state with 20% to 18% for Herman Cain, 17% for Sarah Palin, 12% for Newt Gingrich, 8% for Tim Pawlenty and Ron Paul, 5% for Michele Bachmann, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
This is the second poll this week where we've found Cain doing better than Palin. He is the new darling of the far right crowd that has generally favored Palin. With voters describing themselves as 'very conservative' he gets 21% to 19% for Palin, 15% for Romney, and 14% for Gingrich. Romney holds the overall lead by cleaning up with voters who are either centrists or just slightly right of center. With moderates he gets 32% to 15% for Palin and 10% for Paul, with Cain registering at only 9%. And with 'somewhat conservative' voters Romney gets 21% to 18% for Cain and 15% for Palin.
It's getting to the point where it hardly seems worth remarking on Gingrich's poor poll numbers but this makes another state where the plurality even of GOP voters rates him negatively- 47% to just 38% with a positive opinion of him. What makes that noteworthy is North Carolina is one of the few states where we ever found Gingrich leading the way in the Republican primary. That he now does so poorly in a state where he once did quite well speaks to the utter collapse of his candidacy.
Pat McCrory has embraced the Republican legislature even as it's gone too far to the right for the tastes of most North Carolina voters and this might explain why: 44% of primary voters would vote for a 'more conservative' alternative to him next year compared to only 34% who say they would vote for McCrory given that choice.
There's no questions GOP voters like McCrory- his favorability with them is 56/9. But there's still a lot of concern with the base that he's not sufficiently conservative and his actions over the last six months make it clear that he's trying to keep that 'more conservative' opponent from emerging. By contrast we asked this same question about Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown recently and only 25% of primary voters wanted someone to his right with 65% firmly committed to him. So it's not like Republicans always want a more conservative alternative.
There are no signs of a serious primary opponent for McCrory on the horizon but if someone with fundraising ability on his right did decide to make the race, his nomination would not be nearly as inevitable as commonly assumed.
Full results here
Thursday, June 16, 2011
North Carolina against Ryan plan and raising debt ceiling
While Republicans may hope that NY-26 is just a fluke and that they can salvage the Ryan Medicare plan in the court of public opinion, North Carolina, a key presidential swing state, has turned decidedly against it. When provided with a neutral description of a Ryan plan like proposal, 24% come out in support of the proposal to 47% who come out in opposition. Unsurprisingly, Democrats are least supportive, -44(17-61). However, as most Republican presidential candidates scramble to come out in support of the Ryan plan, it is not particularly popular among Republicans either. Only a bare plurality supports the proposal, +2(35-33).
While Medicare appears to be a winning issue for Democrats, raising the debt ceiling is not. When presented with common arguments for and against raising the debt ceiling, only 31% of North Carolinians support increasing the ceiling compared to 49% who are opposed. Republicans are quite united in their opposition, opposing raising the ceiling -61(11-72). On the other hand, Democrats are more divided and only support raising the ceiling +15(46-31). If congressional Democrats are to succeed in raising the debt ceiling, it is doubtful that they will be able to rely on the public for support.
Full results here
While Medicare appears to be a winning issue for Democrats, raising the debt ceiling is not. When presented with common arguments for and against raising the debt ceiling, only 31% of North Carolinians support increasing the ceiling compared to 49% who are opposed. Republicans are quite united in their opposition, opposing raising the ceiling -61(11-72). On the other hand, Democrats are more divided and only support raising the ceiling +15(46-31). If congressional Democrats are to succeed in raising the debt ceiling, it is doubtful that they will be able to rely on the public for support.
Full results here
Edwards wins the Silver
It's a close call but on our North Carolina poll this week John Edwards doesn't quite edge out Rod Blagojevich as the most unpopular person we've ever polled on. 9% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 81% with a negative one. That net -72 favorability spread is slightly better than the -75 (8/83) we found for Blagojevich in Illinois last year.
This is the first time we've polled on Edwards since last January, right after Game Change came out. At that time his favorability was a 15/72 spread with voters in the state. He still had 25% of Democrats seeing him positively to only 55% with a negative opinion. Now his numbers have collapsed even further on that front to a 13/73 breakdown. He was already at single digit favorability levels with Republicans and independents last year and he remains there now.
Despite Edwards' near record unpopularity voters are a lot less sold on his being guilty of the crimes he was charged with earlier this month. 52% think he's guilty but 16% believe he's innocent and 32% are not sure. That's a lot of people who don't like him but at the same time aren't convinced he's a criminal. Still a majority of voters thinking he's guilty right off the bat is going to make it hard to find a fair jury if his case really goes to trial.
Full results here
This is the first time we've polled on Edwards since last January, right after Game Change came out. At that time his favorability was a 15/72 spread with voters in the state. He still had 25% of Democrats seeing him positively to only 55% with a negative opinion. Now his numbers have collapsed even further on that front to a 13/73 breakdown. He was already at single digit favorability levels with Republicans and independents last year and he remains there now.
Despite Edwards' near record unpopularity voters are a lot less sold on his being guilty of the crimes he was charged with earlier this month. 52% think he's guilty but 16% believe he's innocent and 32% are not sure. That's a lot of people who don't like him but at the same time aren't convinced he's a criminal. Still a majority of voters thinking he's guilty right off the bat is going to make it hard to find a fair jury if his case really goes to trial.
Full results here
Romney leads as GOP prioritizes electability
Last year Republicans scuttled their chances at taking back the US Senate by nominating far right unelectable candidates like Christine O'Donnell in Delaware, Sharron Angle in Nevada, and Ken Buck in Colorado. Now GOP voters seem to have learned their lesson: 56% say it's most important to them to have a Presidential candidate who has the best chance of defeating Barack Obama, compared to only 31% who think it's more important to have someone who's conservative on every issue. That finding is an indication that the Tea Party's influence within the Republican Party may be diminished. That's bad news for Democrats...and good news for Mitt Romney.
Romney leads our newest poll with 22% to 17% for Herman Cain, 15% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, 8% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney's strength is with those voters for whom electability is the paramount concern. He gets 27% with them to 14% each for Cain and Palin and 12% for Pawlenty. With GOP partisans more concerned about ideology Romney is third at 16%, behind Cain's 22% and Palin's 18%.
It's interesting that Cain has surpassed Palin as the candidate of choice for the 'I'd rather lose than sacrifice' crowd. Palin continues to have the highest favorability of the potential Republican candidates at 62%, putting her well ahead of Romney's 55%, Pawlenty's 44%, Cain's 40%, and Gingrich's 36%. But there just continues to be a disconnect between GOP voters liking Palin and thinking she would be a good President or Presidential candidate. Her popularity with the base is undeniable...but so is the fact that she would have an exceptionally difficult path to the nomination even if she did decide to make the race.
If Palin doesn't run Romney's lead expands. He gets 27% to 20% for Cain, 13% for Bachmann, 12% for Gingrich, 10% for Pawlenty, 6% for Paul, and 3% for Huntsman. One piece of conventional wisdom that is true: the biggest beneficiary of Palin not running would be Bachmann. She gets 32% of the Palin supporters to 17% for Gingrich, 14% for Cain, and 13% for Romney.
We also tested a sort of GOP dream field, using the Republican figures who had the best favorability numbers on our recent South Carolina and Iowa polls. Those numbers suggest that the Republican on the sidelines who could make the biggest impact if he jumped in is Chris Christie. He would get 18% to 17% for Romney, 13% for Palin, 11% for Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani, 8% for Michele Bachmann, and 6% for Paul Ryan and Tim Pawlenty. I think those numbers are actually a pretty good sign for Romney- he really doesn't lose that much of his support even with those other big names in the race. But it does make it clear Christie could enter late and still be very formidable.
Full results here
Romney leads our newest poll with 22% to 17% for Herman Cain, 15% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Newt Gingrich and Tim Pawlenty, 8% for Michele Bachmann, 7% for Ron Paul, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
Romney's strength is with those voters for whom electability is the paramount concern. He gets 27% with them to 14% each for Cain and Palin and 12% for Pawlenty. With GOP partisans more concerned about ideology Romney is third at 16%, behind Cain's 22% and Palin's 18%.
It's interesting that Cain has surpassed Palin as the candidate of choice for the 'I'd rather lose than sacrifice' crowd. Palin continues to have the highest favorability of the potential Republican candidates at 62%, putting her well ahead of Romney's 55%, Pawlenty's 44%, Cain's 40%, and Gingrich's 36%. But there just continues to be a disconnect between GOP voters liking Palin and thinking she would be a good President or Presidential candidate. Her popularity with the base is undeniable...but so is the fact that she would have an exceptionally difficult path to the nomination even if she did decide to make the race.
If Palin doesn't run Romney's lead expands. He gets 27% to 20% for Cain, 13% for Bachmann, 12% for Gingrich, 10% for Pawlenty, 6% for Paul, and 3% for Huntsman. One piece of conventional wisdom that is true: the biggest beneficiary of Palin not running would be Bachmann. She gets 32% of the Palin supporters to 17% for Gingrich, 14% for Cain, and 13% for Romney.
We also tested a sort of GOP dream field, using the Republican figures who had the best favorability numbers on our recent South Carolina and Iowa polls. Those numbers suggest that the Republican on the sidelines who could make the biggest impact if he jumped in is Chris Christie. He would get 18% to 17% for Romney, 13% for Palin, 11% for Jeb Bush and Rudy Giuliani, 8% for Michele Bachmann, and 6% for Paul Ryan and Tim Pawlenty. I think those numbers are actually a pretty good sign for Romney- he really doesn't lose that much of his support even with those other big names in the race. But it does make it clear Christie could enter late and still be very formidable.
Full results here
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Question Suggestions
Montana and Florida were the winners of our vote on where to poll this week.
The races for House and Governor in Montana are going to be a bit of a challenge because there are too many potential match ups to even come close to testing them all. We're going to have to stick to 2 or 3 candidates on each side in those two races. Help in determining who's most viable and should be included in the poll would be very helpful.
Between the Presidential, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races I don't know that there's room for anything else in Montana but if there are any other burning questions we should ask send them along.
For Florida let us know who you think we should test in the Senate race as well as any other questions we should put on there besides the standard Presidential stuff. Thanks as always for the suggestions.
The races for House and Governor in Montana are going to be a bit of a challenge because there are too many potential match ups to even come close to testing them all. We're going to have to stick to 2 or 3 candidates on each side in those two races. Help in determining who's most viable and should be included in the poll would be very helpful.
Between the Presidential, Senate, Gubernatorial, and House races I don't know that there's room for anything else in Montana but if there are any other burning questions we should ask send them along.
For Florida let us know who you think we should test in the Senate race as well as any other questions we should put on there besides the standard Presidential stuff. Thanks as always for the suggestions.
Massachusetts Republican Numbers
-Scott Brown doesn't need to worry about a Tea Party challenge. 70% of Massachusetts Republican primary voters think that he is ideologically 'about right' while only 23% think that he's too liberal. Only 25% say they would support a more conservative alternative in a primary against Brown to 65% who say they'd stick with him.
Brown gets lumped in with Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins a lot but he's doing a much better job than them of staying in good standing with the party base. Democrats aren't going to get lucky next year by facing some far right person who wins a primary challenge- if they want the seat back they're going to have to find a way to beat Brown himself.
-Mitt Romney has a wide lead for the Presidential nomination in the state with 49% to 10% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Newt Gingrich, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
It's unremarkable that Romney is ahead in his home state, but it's worth noting that his level of support is greater with Massachusetts Republicans than any of his opponents find in their backyards. Here's how they stack up:
Romney's favorability with Republicans in Massachusetts is 78/14, indicating that his health care plan isn't too much of a liability at least with primary voters on the home front. He puts up very strong numbers across the ideological spectrum.
Full results here
Brown gets lumped in with Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins a lot but he's doing a much better job than them of staying in good standing with the party base. Democrats aren't going to get lucky next year by facing some far right person who wins a primary challenge- if they want the seat back they're going to have to find a way to beat Brown himself.
-Mitt Romney has a wide lead for the Presidential nomination in the state with 49% to 10% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Sarah Palin, 8% for Herman Cain, 6% for Tim Pawlenty, 5% for Ron Paul, 4% for Newt Gingrich, and 1% for Jon Huntsman.
It's unremarkable that Romney is ahead in his home state, but it's worth noting that his level of support is greater with Massachusetts Republicans than any of his opponents find in their backyards. Here's how they stack up:
| Candidate (State) | Home State Primary Support |
| Mitt Romney (MA) | 49% |
| Tim Pawlenty (MN) | 33% |
| Newt Gingrich (GA) | 22% |
| Herman Cain (GA) | 16% |
| Sarah Palin (AK) | 15% |
| Michele Bachmann (MN) | 14% |
| Gary Johnson (NM) | 13% |
| Rick Santorum (PA) | 11% |
| Ron Paul (TX) | 10% |
| Rick Perry (TX) | 9% |
Romney's favorability with Republicans in Massachusetts is 78/14, indicating that his health care plan isn't too much of a liability at least with primary voters on the home front. He puts up very strong numbers across the ideological spectrum.
Full results here
Perdue continues to gain on McCrory
The biggest winner coming out of this year's North Carolina legislative session is probably Governor Bev Perdue.
In March she had a 30% approval rating and trailed 2008 opponent Pat McCrory by 14 points in a hypothetical rematch. Now as the popularity of Republicans in the state has cratered her approval is up to 36%, the best it's been in more than 2 years, and her deficit against McCrory is down to just 6 points.
Perdue is still in a very, very difficult position for reelection. But I would have pegged her chances at a second term below 20% three months ago and while I still think she's at less than 50/50 the odds have improved greatly.
Perdue trails McCrory now 45-39. Her biggest issue continues to be her base- while McCrory is winning 82% of the Republican vote, Perdue is getting only 65% of the Democratic vote. Perdue is also losing independents by 12 points but she could still get reelected with that kind of deficit if she was winning 80% of the Democratic vote.
The thing to watch for Perdue over the next 17 months is her black support. Right now she trails McCrory by 23 points with white voters. That's pretty much identical to her 22% loss with them in 2008. What has her in such a difficult position is that she's up only 61-15 with black voters, compared to her 90-9 victory with them last time around. If she was winning African Americans right now by the same margin as the first time she would be leading McCrory by 1 point. Democrats do almost always win 90% or more of the black vote but for whatever reason Perdue does have a persistent weakness with that group of voters. If she can overcome it her chances for reelection will get a lot better.
The other interesting trend we're seeing right now is a weakening in McCrory's favorability numbers. When we did our first 2012 Governor poll last November he was at a +14 spread (34/20). Now he's down 13 points to only +1 at 30/29. There hasn't been any change in his standing with Republicans over that period of time. But he's lost a great deal of his crossover appeal to Democrats, going from almost break even (24/27) to very unpopular (16/44) across party lines over the last 7 months. And although he's still on positive ground with independents his numbers are down with them as well from +16 (34/18) in November to now +4 (30/26).
McCrory has pretty fully embraced the new Republican legislative majority even as independents have turned sharply against it and Democrats have been reenergized by it, and he's paying a political price for that embrace with declining poll numbers. McCrory's probably still the favorite next year but his election as Governor is looking a lot less inevitable than it did at the start of the year.
Full results here
In March she had a 30% approval rating and trailed 2008 opponent Pat McCrory by 14 points in a hypothetical rematch. Now as the popularity of Republicans in the state has cratered her approval is up to 36%, the best it's been in more than 2 years, and her deficit against McCrory is down to just 6 points.
Perdue is still in a very, very difficult position for reelection. But I would have pegged her chances at a second term below 20% three months ago and while I still think she's at less than 50/50 the odds have improved greatly.
Perdue trails McCrory now 45-39. Her biggest issue continues to be her base- while McCrory is winning 82% of the Republican vote, Perdue is getting only 65% of the Democratic vote. Perdue is also losing independents by 12 points but she could still get reelected with that kind of deficit if she was winning 80% of the Democratic vote.
The thing to watch for Perdue over the next 17 months is her black support. Right now she trails McCrory by 23 points with white voters. That's pretty much identical to her 22% loss with them in 2008. What has her in such a difficult position is that she's up only 61-15 with black voters, compared to her 90-9 victory with them last time around. If she was winning African Americans right now by the same margin as the first time she would be leading McCrory by 1 point. Democrats do almost always win 90% or more of the black vote but for whatever reason Perdue does have a persistent weakness with that group of voters. If she can overcome it her chances for reelection will get a lot better.
The other interesting trend we're seeing right now is a weakening in McCrory's favorability numbers. When we did our first 2012 Governor poll last November he was at a +14 spread (34/20). Now he's down 13 points to only +1 at 30/29. There hasn't been any change in his standing with Republicans over that period of time. But he's lost a great deal of his crossover appeal to Democrats, going from almost break even (24/27) to very unpopular (16/44) across party lines over the last 7 months. And although he's still on positive ground with independents his numbers are down with them as well from +16 (34/18) in November to now +4 (30/26).
McCrory has pretty fully embraced the new Republican legislative majority even as independents have turned sharply against it and Democrats have been reenergized by it, and he's paying a political price for that embrace with declining poll numbers. McCrory's probably still the favorite next year but his election as Governor is looking a lot less inevitable than it did at the start of the year.
Full results here
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
